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Oil Tumbles After Reported Final Draft Of US-Iran Agreement Reached, But Nuclear Issue Absent Summary AI Arabiya TV obtains what it describes as final draft of US-lran agreement, oil tumbles. Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. Some Iranian officials then denied report to Al Jazeera. WH says make a deal or else... "they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history." US Intelligence says Iran has reconstitute drone program, defense industrial base, "faster than expected" (CNN). //--> //--> //--> Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? Yes 51% · No 50%View full market & trade on Polymarket *  *  * Oil Plunges on Final Draft of US-Iran Agreement Reached Is this the one? While we've seen this rodeo before, oil is plunging on a Saudi media report which is positive for peace. Crude hits low of day... Traders Circulate AI Arabiya TV obtaining what it describes as final draft of US-lran agreement: (CLICK TO SEE KEY PROVISIONS) - UNCONFIRMED Key provisions include: 1) An immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire on all fronts (land, sea, air) 2) Mutual commitment not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure 3) Cessation of military operations and instigating media warfare 4) Respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in internal affairs 5) Guaranteed freedom of navigation in the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Sea of Oman 6) Establishment of a joint monitoring and dispute resolution mechanism 7) Launch of negotiations on outstanding issues within seven days 8) Gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions in exchange for Iran's adherence to the terms 9) Affirmation of compliance with international law and the UN Charter Importantly, there's no mention of the nuclear issue. "The agreement is stated to enter into force immediately upon formal announcement by both parties," the Al Arabiya report says. Saudi’s @AlArabiya TV has obtained what it describes as the final draft of a prospective Pakistani mediated U.S.-Iran agreement, reportedly set to be announced within hours [It does not align with what I am hearing]. Key provisions include: 1) An immediate, comprehensive, and… https://t.co/qxpEDSX04a pic.twitter.com/M0D1hMCD8b — Basha باشا (@BashaReport) May 21, 2026 Drones, Military Industrial Base Being Rapidly Restored Amid Extended Ceasefire The Iranians have reportedly rebuilt damaged and destroyed defense industrial sites much faster than expected. That's according to US intelligence assessments cited in CNN, and based on anonymous officials. The Pakistan-mediated talks have been stalled, and each of the last several weeks has seen Washington issue updated peace conditions, only for Tehran to in return counter-issue its own demands. And round and round the indirect negotiation has gone, yet with no breakthrough, or not so much as a step forward. But perhaps this was all a tactic to simply prolong the ceasefire? It allowed for Iran to rearm and regroup, after the prior 38-days of US-Israeli bombing. "Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments," CNN reports Thursday. "Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated." One US official cited in the report has gone so far as to say "The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution." In the recent past, White House officials themselves have admitted that the Islamic Republic is probably reconstituting. Trump in the meantime keeps saying he's 'days' away from reordering strikes amid Tehran's intransigence. According to more on Iranian efforts to prepare for the next potential round of fighting: The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign, according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term. While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months, one of the sources, a US official, told CNN. They already tried that. It did not work. https://t.co/1OEZ50d5st — Scott Horton (@scotthortonshow) May 21, 2026 Iranian Denials Throughout the morning, and since the Reuters report was first issued, various unnamed Iranian officials are saying the Ayatollah gave no such order regarding taking enriched uranium removal off the table when it comes to potential negotiations. According to an Al Jazeera correspondent:  A senior Iranian official denied to me reports that Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain inside Iran, saying they are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal” The official added there are “no new order has been issued,” and that Tehran’s position has been consistent: Iran would downblend the material itself. “That is the subject of talks in the next stage,” the official said. This will likely only fuel speculation of deep division within Iranian leadership ranks. Traditionally the IRGC reports directly to the Ayatollah, and is seen as the more hardline faction, ready to resist compromise and opt for a military response to US pressure. Oil snaps lower on the denials... per Newsquawk: In an immediate reaction, crude fell to the detriment of the USD and the benefit of equity and fixed benchmarks. Specifically: • WTI Jul'26 fell from USD 102/bbl to USD 100.56/bbl. • UST Jun'26 lifted from 109-00 to 109-04+. • ES Jun'26 lifted from 7418 to 7433. Ayatollah Orders Enriched Uranium To Say On Iranian Soil: RTRS The illusion of a grand diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East is once again colliding with reality. The White House has been busy trying to paint a picture of a total capitulation by Tehran, which hasn't been demonstrated given its consistent position defying Washington's demands on the nuclear issue. According to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. Office of the Supreme Leader, via Reuters Reuters underscores that "Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran." "Israeli officials have told Reuters that ‌Trump has assured Israel that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this," the report continues. The officials noted that within Tehran, there is deep suspicion that the ceasefire is in fact "a tactical deception by the US," designed to lull Iran into a "false sense of security... before the fighting resumes." The fresh directive from from the supreme leader flies directly in the face of the narrative being spun by Washington and Tel Aviv, given Israeli officials maintain that President Trump explicitly promised Israel that Iran's highly enriched stockpile would be completely removed from the country as part of any negotiated settlement. Trump has also recently proclaimed this publicly, for example in a phone interview with CBS News last month, wherein he confidently proclaimed that Iran "agreed to everything" and would cooperate fully to ship its enriched uranium out of the country. Extraction of nuclear material would of course rely heavily on the assumption of total Iranian compliance, given Trump has also lately appeared to rule out out a hostile invasion force, stating, "No. No troops." There seems to be widespread agreement among national security officials at this point that some kind of special forces op to covertly go in and take it would be tantamount to a 'suicide mission'. According to more of what Trump (prematurely) proclaimed in the prior CBS interview: "Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we'll take it to the United States." The reality is all along the two sides' positions have been very far apart, and largely unbending: And on a potential deal: "We'll be getting it together because by that time, we'll have an agreement and there's no need for fighting when there's an agreement. Nice right? That's better. We would have done it the other way if we had to" - he sought to explain. At the moment, Iranian officials are reportedly reviewing the latest updated US proposals for peace, having reportedly asked Pakistan for time to assess and study the American points for negotiations." However, Khamenei locking down the 60% enriched uranium inside Iranian borders, and amid suspicion that the US ceasefire offer is but a Trojan horse to get the Islamic Republic to simply given up its potential last line of defense, doesn't bode well for the chances of a breakthrough anytime soon. //--> //--> //--> Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 18% · No 83%View full market & trade on Polymarket For the latest warning from the White House, via Stephen Miller: "Iran has a choice to make: they can either agree to a piece of paper that is satisfactory to the United States, or they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history. That's the choice they face" - he told Fox News. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 14:15

The News-to-Death Ratio Strikes Again Authored by Carl Henegan and Tom Jefferson via The Brownstone Institute, There is a peculiar arithmetic that governs modern health reporting, one that has very little to do with actual risk. Hans Rosling captured it neatly during the 2009 swine flu episode, when he calculated a “news-to-death ratio” of 8,176-to-1. In other words, for every death attributed to swine flu, there were over eight thousand news stories. Tuberculosis, by contrast, received less than 0.1 news stories per death over the same period. If that sounds absurd, it is, and yet very little has changed. Take the current hantavirus scare. A cruise ship, the MV Hondius, sits off Cape Verde. There are 7 cases in total (2 confirmed, 5 suspected) and 3 deaths, including a Dutch couple and a German national. Passengers have been confined to their cabins while evacuations and disinfection efforts are organised. It is, undeniably, a dramatic story: a floating Petri dish, a whiff of quarantine, and a hint of the exotic. In the past week alone, there have been at least 10 to 15 unique news stories, generating hundreds of articles. For a disease that, in normal times, struggles to attract even a single weekly mention, this represents a surge bordering on the hysterical. And yet it is worth stepping back for a moment and asking, what are we actually looking at? Hantavirus is a rare disease. In the United States, which diligently tracks such cases, there have been 890 laboratory-confirmed instances since 1993. In the UK, the situation is even less clear: from 2012 to early 2025, only 11 domestically acquired symptomatic cases have been recorded. Surprisingly, nine of these cases were not linked to cruise ships or exotic travel, but rather to a more mundane source—exposure to “pet fancy rats” or rodents bred as reptile feed. This is not a pathogen ready to spread through the Home Counties. However, the rarity is not the issue; visibility is. Diseases that afflict the poor, quietly and persistently, rarely command attention. Tuberculosis killed 1.23 million people globally in 2024. Over a million deaths every year, largely concentrated in less affluent parts of the world. It is one of the most lethal infectious diseases known to medicine, and yet it barely registers in the Western news cycle. Why? Because TB is familiar, it is slow; It lacks narrative flair, and it does not trap well-heeled passengers in their cabins while helicopters circle overhead. If you want coverage, you need something else entirely. You need novelty, uncertainty, and above all, proximity to affluence. A cruise ship outbreak ticks every box: a disease with a balcony suite. This is the uncomfortable truth behind Rosling’s ratio: the media does not report risk, it reports drama. And drama requires context that audiences can imagine themselves in. A rodent-borne virus in some remote rural setting barely registers. Put that very same virus aboard a cruise ship with buffet queues, balcony cabins, and a passenger list that looks uncomfortably like the readership, and suddenly it becomes headline news. The result is a profound distortion of public perception. We are invited to worry about the improbable while ignoring the inevitable and reality. A handful of hantavirus cases generates dozens of headlines; a million tuberculosis deaths pass with barely a murmur. If we were to apply Rosling’s lens to the present moment, the imbalance would be obvious. Three deaths linked to a suspected hantavirus cluster have produced hundreds of reports in a matter of days. Meanwhile, tuberculosis continues its relentless toll with scarcely a fraction of that attention. The modern “news-to-death ratio” may not be precisely 8,176-to-1, but the underlying pattern remains intact. The lesson here isn’t truly about hantavirus; instead, it’s about how we collectively determine what is significant. Diseases associated with poverty—those that are endemic, predictable, and devastating—often fail to attract media attention because they don’t instill fear in the right audience or in the right way. No one is interested in the thousands of cholera deaths that are too remote, too ordinary, and lack the dramatic impact that draws interest. What commands attention are diseases that puncture our sense of safety, the kind that can slip past the gangway and make themselves at home on a cruise ship. This post was written by two old geezers who live in a world where risk is misread, priorities are skewed, and the arithmetic of attention bears little resemblance to the arithmetic of death. Republished from the authors’ Substack Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 13:00

"Drills Are Intended To Send A Signal": Russia Holds Massive Nuclear Drills On Land, Sea And Air Alongside Belarus Trucks carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles rumbled over forest roads, atomic-powered submarines set sail from Arctic and Pacific ports, and crews scrambled into warplanes as Russia and neighboring Belarus held the final stage of their joint nuclear drills Thursday. Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the maneuvers in a video call with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. “The use of nuclear weapons is an extreme, exceptional measure for ensuring the national security of our states,” Putin said, according to AP. Lukashenko earlier inspected Russian short-range nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles at a military unit involved in the drills and declared: “I dreamed about this machine a long time ago.” The three-day drills that began Tuesday come amid a surge in Ukrainian drone strikes. including on Moscow’s suburbs that killed three people and damaged several buildings and industrial facilities. The strikes made it harder for officials in the Kremlin to cast the conflict in Ukraine — now in its fifth year — as something so distant that it doesn’t affect the daily routines of Russian civilians. Drills involve wide array of nuclear weapons Russia’s Defense Ministry said the exercise involved 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, more than 140 aircraft, 73 surface warships and 13 submarines, including eight armed with nuclear-tipped ICBMs. The drills focused on the “preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression,” it said. The maneuvers also practice cooperation with Belarus, an ally that hosts Russian nuclear weapons. Russian arsenals in Belarus include its latest intermediate range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system. A Yars ICBM is seen during drills of Russia's nuclear forces in Belarus (Russian defense ministry). Along with nuclear-tipped ground- and submarine-launched ICBMs, the maneuvers featured a broad assortment of short- and medium-range weapons. Unlike the intercontinental missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons intended for use against troops on the battlefield are less powerful. They include aerial bombs and warheads for short- and medium-range missiles and artillery munitions. The Defense Ministry said the Russian armed forces test-fired Yars and Sineva ICBMs, as well as medium-range sea-launched Zircon and air-launched Kinzhal missiles, noting that all missiles hit their designated practice targets. Belarusian troops test-fired a short-range Iskander ballistic missile inside Russia. Putin has repeatedly reminded the world about Moscow’s nuclear arsenals since the war in Ukraine started in February 2022 to deter the West from ramping up support for Kyiv. In 2024, the Kremlin adopted a revised nuclear doctrine, noting that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. That threat was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal. Russia's new Sarmat ICBM is being test launched at an unspecified location in Russia (Russian defense ministry). The revised doctrine also placed Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Putin has said that Moscow will retain control of its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, but would allow its ally to select the targets in case of conflict. Drills come as Ukrainian drones spotted in the Baltics The maneuvers are held amid an increase in drone activity in the Baltic nations. On Tuesday, a NATO jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia. Ukraine apologized for that “unintended incident,” without specifying what had happened. On Wednesday, an emergency announcement about a drone flying over Belarus prompted residents of the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, including top officials and lawmakers, to take shelter and led to a brief closure of its airport. Ukrainian drones targeting Russia’s Baltic ports and energy facilities have recently crossed or come down in NATO territory on several occasions. Amusingly, instead of blaming the source, Ukraine, Western officials blamed Russian electronic jamming of the drones. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Tuesday that Ukraine is preparing drone attacks against Russia from the territory of the Baltic countries and warned of retaliation It alleged Ukrainian military personnel had been deployed to Latvia and warned that the country’s membership in NATO wouldn’t protect it from “just retribution.” Latvian authorities said the allegation was not true. Last month, the Russian Defense Ministry published a list of factories in Europe that it said were involved in producing drones and their components for Ukraine. It warned that attacks on Russia involving drones manufactured in Europe are fraught with “unpredictable consequences.” Some commentators interpreted the bellicose statements from Moscow and this week’s exercise featuring short- and medium-range nuclear weapons capable of reaching targets in Europe as part of Kremlin efforts to discourage Western allies from bolstering support for Ukraine. Asked what message the nuclear exercise was intended to send, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that “any drills are intended to send a signal,” but wouldn’t elaborate. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 12:00

Turkey Liquidated Almost All Of Its US Treasuries In March To Defend Crashing Lira Two months ago, at the end of March, we reported that Turkey was aggressively dumping its gold reserves in a panic scramble to obtain dollar funding, which Erdogan's regime was using to keep the Turkish lira from crashing, and to also pay for energy imports which had suddenly soared in price as a result of the Iran war. The violent selling by Turkey (and other emerging markets) was behind the brutal plunge in gold prices, which tumbled by more than $1000 from near all-time highs at the start of the war to the low 4000s by the time Turkey had done selling much of its gold.  Then earlier this week, we got another confirmation of Turkey's wild liquidation spree when the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira. According to balance-of-payments data, Turkey's official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices. A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira.  “As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci. Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks. Yet as we said in March, while selling gold is a step of clear desperation for Turkey which had put in much efforts in recent years to build up a substantial gold stock, it is understandable for a regime that suddenly finds itself in a dollar funding crisis, the bigger question is did Turkey do the same with its holdings of Treasuries which are far more liquid and thus far less likely to move the market even when facing a sizable liquidation.  The answer, we learned today, is a resounding yes. According to Bloomberg calculations based on US Treasury data, Turkey sold almost all of its US Treasuries in March as it stepped up efforts to support its currency during the first month of the Iran war. The amount of Treasuries held by Turkey crashed to just $1.8 billion by the end of March, down from $16 billion the previous month, the data showed. The figure includes securities held by the central bank and other Turkish entities, including corporates. The decline coincided with a selloff in Turkish markets after the Middle East conflict erupted, sending oil prices sharply higher. The central bank moved immediately to prevent a crash in the lira by tightening funding conditions and selling off foreign exchange and gold assets. Its interventions also included swapping gold from reserves, although now that it has also dumped the bulk of its last ditch dollar reserves, those swaps will almost certainly end up forcing Turkey to hand over whatever gold was pledged.  Turkey’s Treasury holdings were as high as $21 billion in February 2025 after the country spent a year rebuilding reserves. They had peaked about a decade ago at $80 billion, before steadily declining as relations with the US soured over a range of political and geopolitical disputes, and as Turkey consistently sold reserves to maintain a smooth devaluation of the lira.  Despite the interventions, the lira has remained under pressure as the war drags on. Last week, the central bank raised its year-end inflation target to 24% from 16%, after data showed annual inflation accelerated to 32.4%. Turkish bonds have also suffered steep losses, with 10-year yields hitting record highs of 35.75%. And now that Turkey has no more gold or Treasurys with which to defend the currency, expect a sharp and painful death in the currency which has gone from less than 10 against the dollar five years ago to a record 45.6 today.. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 11:20

Trump Posts Article Laying Out: "Here's How To Crush Tehran In Three Moves" President Trump on Thursday posted to Truth Social a New York Post article which was first published over two weeks ago, on May 1st, with the headline "Here's how to crush Tehran in three moves." Trump's new social media post, issued without additional comment, comes just after news of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. So now the world awaits what's next at a moment the White House has renewed threats of massive military strikes if Iran doesn't quickly come to the table and conform. The NY Post article had straight-faced and without a hint of intended irony proclaimed: "President Trump has the upper hand." That statement was issued on day 63 of Trump's Iran war. Today is day 83. What did the interim look like as the world's most powerful military force has been unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, amid constant threats to take new, bigger military action - but which never actually materializes (at least not yet) no matter how many times the Iranians reject Washington's terms? The below timeline and outline, stretching from last week into this one, basically illustrates the weekly Trump pattern that's been on display going back many weeks at this point:  Wed: Iran wants a deal. They called us  Thu: We are looking at proposals Fri: We might be close. Very close Sat: Iran knows what to do Sun: OBLITERATION. TOTAL. COMPLETE. They have 24 hrs.  Mon: The storm is coming  Tue: I'm giving it more time This is what 'winning' looks like according to the NY Post, apparently. The publication also feels itself in a position to give 'advice' and guidance to the White House on executing a war. "His best path forward is to pursue three lines of effort in parallel," author Richard Goldberg (of Foundation for Defense of Democracies) wrote. It must be remembered that very recently a former senior official from FDD Action, the think tank's lobbying arm, joined Trump's Iran negotiating team - his name is Nick Stewart. Here are the three: Sustain the blockade and accompanying economic warfare to destabilize the regime’s hold on the state; Remake the world in America's energy dominance image to mitigate long-term price impacts while undermining China's global ambition to defeat the United States; Order the US military to forge a path through the Strait of Hormuz to restore freedom of navigation on our terms not Tehran’s. ...if only simply ordering a military "path through" was that easy! NurPhoto via Getty Images "You might call the latter Operation Epic Passage — a combined naval and air mission of self-defense that offers escort to tankers and restores freedom of navigation, all while making clear to Tehran the devastating consequences of breaking cease-fire," Goldberg, who openly boasts of his close ties to the Israeli government, also wrote. He further offered the mission name of "Blockade Plus". After the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, when it became clear that the large-scale US and Israeli bombardment would not produced regime change in Iran, pundits widely questioned whether the Trump White House actually had a plan, or long-term strategic vision for the military mission.  And now, after more than 80 days in, the public gets Trump posting a NY Post article by a hawkish FDD writer, which seems more focused merely on ways to mitigate the blowback and 'make the best' of a failed regime change operation, in the wake of the administration's constantly evolving stated goals. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 10:45

US PMIs Lead The World As Manufacturing Tops 4-Year Highs, Services Sink Following Japan's ugly PMIs (Services lowest since March 2025) and Europe's disaster (weakest composite EU PMI since late 2023)... ...with prices surging... All eyes are on the US 'soft' survey data for signs of divergence (or contagion). With US 'hard' data improving notably, the preliminary soft survey data for May was mixed with improved performance in manufacturing was countered by a sluggish service sector. Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 50.9 (April: 51.0). 2-month low. Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 (April: 54.5). 48-month high.  Source: Bloomberg “The damaging economic impact from the war in the Middle East is becoming increasingly evident in the business surveys," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "The ‘flash’ PMI data for May recorded only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic outlook. Coming on the heels of a subdued April reading, the May PMI indicates that the economy will struggle to manage annualized GDP growth of much more than 1% in the second quarter... However, Williamson notes that even this subdued pace of growth may not last. "On average, over the past three months order book growth has slowed to its weakest for two years, and a boost from precautionary stock building due to concerns over further price hikes and supply delays will not last forever. Demand also looks set to cool further in response to rising prices. "Firms’ costs have jumped higher at a pace not seen since the energy price shock of 2022 and are being passed on to customers in the form of sharply higher selling prices. The survey price gauges therefore indicate that inflation looks set to rise further just as the economy cools.” Finally, while the composite numbers are not that encouraging, on a relative basis, US looks dominant... Maybe trump was right about the impact of the war on everyone else? (Just don't tell anyone who drives!) Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:54

The Water Economics Of Data Centers Vs. Almond Farms & Golf Courses A recent Gallup poll shows that nearly 70% of Americans oppose the construction of a data center in their communities, highlighting the rise of local resistance movements against hyperscaler buildouts. This resistance is driven by concerns over skyrocketing power bills, the destruction of farmland as it is transformed into industrial-scale AI infrastructure, and fears that data centers will drain local resources, particularly water. It's no surprise that data center resistance is only gaining steam and will likely accelerate from here, as tech bros on the All-In podcast recently sounded the alarm. This resistance is emerging not just as power bills explode and water scarcity fears mount, but also as corporate America unleashes the "white-collar purge," with human labor swapped for GPUs. Meta was the latest to announce rising AI adoption alongside a new round of layoffs. Water has become a flashpoint in data center debates, as some of these facilities can use 5 million gallons of water every day, as much as 16,000-plus average U.S. households, according to Environmental Protection Agency estimates. There is also the extraordinary amount of power required to run the chip stacks, which consumes millions of additional gallons of water - more than the water used for cooling. Hyperscalers are set to deploy $700 billion in capex this year to build out data centers and key AI infrastructure products, suggesting that local resistance nationwide will only continue to build as tech bros search for alternative options (low-Earth orbit and or residential backyards). Permitting denials and other issues may delay or block nearly half of data center projects this year. However, on the subject of water, critics of data centers often fail to point out - especially in California - that agriculture also consumes a tremendous amount of water. X user Smirkley compared the economics of a 5-gallon water-cooler jug, arguing that 5 gallons of water generates about $132 in economic output in data centers, but only about 2 cents in almonds. Yet where is the outrage here? Here is Smirkley's math: Data centers: $529.1 billion ÷ 20 billion gallons × 5 = $132.28 per 5 gallons California almonds: $5.66 billion ÷ 1.59 trillion gallons × 5 = 1.78 cents per 5 gallons Smirkley's point is that AI infrastructure produces far more economic output per gallon than almonds. Fine. Let me make it simple. Almonds grown in the US use 80x more water than every American data center combined. This is the difference between an 8oz glass vs. a 5-gallon jug. pic.twitter.com/6NvR46klqJ — Smirkley (@Smirkley) May 19, 2026 "Anti-data-center luddites may be worse than anti-nuclear activists. It is the same emotional panic, but even dumber somehow," the X user noted, adding, "Almonds grown in the U.S. use 80x more water than every American data center combined. This is the difference between an 8 oz. glass and a 5-gallon jug." Honestly, fuck almonds pic.twitter.com/6PWXPKD8A7 — @jason (@Jason) May 14, 2026 "Data centers aren't stealing your water. Even if the total water draw of data centers triples by 2030, they'd require just 8% of the water consumed by American golf courses.@dodgeblake interviewed @AndyMasley, the man who's been debunking AI water doomerism," outlet Pirate Wires wrote on X.  Data centers aren’t stealing your water. Even if the total water draw of data centers triples by 2030, they’d require just 8% of the water consumed by American golf courses.@dodgeblake interviewed @AndyMasley, the man who’s been debunking AI water doomerism. Full story 👇 https://t.co/2paxx8rHeO pic.twitter.com/gDpDiwDOca — Pirate Wires (@PirateWires) May 20, 2026 Where is the outrage for almonds and golf courses? Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:15

FBI Charges Assistant US Attorney For Stealing Smith Report Docs In Trump 'Witch Hunt' Case Authored by Jonathan Turley, Former Justice Department prosecutor Carmen Mercedes Lineberger has been indicted for allegedly removing confidential Justice Department material and then concealing her efforts. Lineberger is accused of secretly transferring Jack Smith’s final report and hiding the material under files labeled “chocolate cake recipe” and “bundt cake recipe.” There has not been a greater recipe for disaster since aides tried to fit all of Biden’s candles on a cake. The case is particularly interesting because there was another person who was accused of a secret removal of Justice Department material who was not prosecuted: former FBI Director James Comey. Linebarger, 62, of Port St. Lucie, Florida, has been indicted on four criminal charges: one felony count of obstruction of justice, one felony count of concealing government records and two misdemeanor counts of theft of government property valued at less than $1,000. According to the indictment, Lineberger altered electronic file names of government records to conceal unauthorized transmissions of the documents to her personal email accounts and used file names for cake recipes to conceal her possession of the confidential information. U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon blocked the public release of the report after the prosecution collapsed against the President. The Justice Department alleges that Lineberger received a copy of Smith’s report before the court sealed it. Months later, she allegedly decided to transfer it to her personal email account in violation of the court order and Justice Department rules. She has now pleaded not guilty and faces up to 20 years on the obstruction charge and other charges. The decision is notable for a couple of reasons. First, Smith made one last move in dismissing the case against Trump that left the door open to resuming his prosecution. Smith moved to dismiss the indictment “without prejudice” and then stressed to the court that the Department has previously “noted the possibility that a court might equitably toll the statute of limitations to permit proceeding against the President once out of office.” In other words, Trump could be prosecuted after he leaves office. It is not known what the motive might have been in this transfer. One possibility would be a type of souvenir or trophy grab, which would be ironic given Smith’s suggestion that Trump may have transferred classified material for that type of possessory thrill. Another is the possible use for a book. Finally, there might have been a desire to preserve evidence to avoid destruction during the Trump years or possible release to the media. The second notable aspect is that Comey was accused of such a knowing removal, but he was never actually prosecuted. There was no court order governing the material removed by Comey after his firing, but it was clearly departmental material. The Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, found that Comey was a leaker and had violated FBI policy in his handling of FBI memos. He found that Comey grabbed the material on his way out of the Bureau, including those containing the “code name and true identity” of a sensitive source. While he did not find a disclosure of the classified information, Horowitz found that Comey took “the unauthorized disclosure of sensitive investigative information, obtained during the course of FBI employment, to achieve a personally desired outcome.” He further added that Comey “set a dangerous example for the over 35,000 current FBI employees—and the many thousands of more former FBI employees—who similarly have access to or knowledge of non-public information.” Comey later admitted that he asked his friend, Columbia Law Professor Daniel Richman, to leak information from the documents to the New York Times. While Comey is facing a weak criminal case over threats conveyed through beach shells, some of us saw his conduct in removing this material as a more serious breach. Comey went on to write books on “ethical leadership” and recently sent a message to current FBI personnel that they should “hang on” and wait out Trump: “In two and a half years, and then we can rebuild.” Rebuilding the bureau in Comey’s image is a truly chilling notion. Those “good old days” with Comey allowed agents to launch a baseless Russian collusion investigation at the behest of the Clinton campaign and lie to a secret court to secure surveillance of Trump figures. In the meantime, it will be Lineberger, not Comey, who will face a jury for the removal of confidential material. For Lineberger, these types of charges tend to be cut-and-dried for prosecutors if they can show that the material was restricted and that she took steps to conceal the alleged theft. While she gained access before the court order, she allegedly transferred the material after the order and then hid the material in files labeled as cake recipes.  If those facts can be established in court, prosecutors likely believe that she can stick a fork in herself because she is done. Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.” Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:00

Foreign Treasury Selling Is Getting Serious Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance We already knew that the bond market was starting to call bullshit on America’s fiscal and monetary policy. Now we know that foreign governments are dumping U.S. Treasuries, and China is leading the way…even while President Trump pals around with President Xi Jinping. According to CNBC, foreign holdings of U.S. government debt fell sharply in March as central banks sold Treasuries to defend weakening currencies during the geopolitical and energy shock tied to the escalating Middle East conflict. China reduced its Treasury holdings to roughly $652 billion, the lowest level since 2008. Japan, the single largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, also cut exposure aggressively. Overall foreign holdings dropped from approximately $9.49 trillion to $9.25 trillion in a single month. That should deeply concern anyone paying attention to the structural fragility underneath the U.S. financial system. For decades, the global economy has operated on a relatively simple arrangement. The United States issues the world’s reserve currency, foreign governments recycle trade surpluses into U.S. Treasuries, and America finances massive deficits because the rest of the world willingly absorbs its debt. That system only works as long as there is confidence in the dollar, confidence in the Federal Reserve, and confidence that U.S. government debt remains the safest and most liquid place on earth to park capital. When major foreign holders begin reducing exposure during a period of rising inflation, exploding deficits, and growing fiscal instability, it creates a potentially dangerous chain reaction. And the timing for the world to be dumping treasuriers right now could not be worse. Bonds are already under pressure because inflation is proving far stickier than policymakers expected. As I wrote last week, both CPI and PPI came in significantly hotter than anticipated, forcing markets to rapidly reassess the possibility that the Federal Reserve may actually need to raise rates again instead of cutting them. Meanwhile, deficits continue spiraling, interest expense on the national debt keeps exploding higher, and the Treasury must issue enormous amounts of new debt simply to keep funding government spending. Now layer weakening foreign demand on top of all of that. That combination is nasty. If foreign governments buy fewer Treasuries while supply continues surging, yields move higher. Higher yields tighten financial conditions across the entire economy. Mortgage rates stay elevated. Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Regional banks sitting on massive unrealized bond losses face renewed pressure. Commercial real estate weakens further. Consumers get squeezed harder. And because Treasuries serve as the foundational collateral layer of the global financial system, instability there spreads everywhere else. This is why the liquidation story matters far beyond geopolitics. China reducing Treasury exposure is not entirely new. The broader trend has been developing for years as Beijing slowly diversifies reserves away from direct dependence on U.S. assets. Whether through outright selling or indirect “shadow holdings” routed through financial centers like Belgium and Luxembourg, the direction has been fairly clear for a long time. But Japan selling aggressively alongside China is where things become even more uncomfortable. Some of Japan’s selling is likely tied to defending the yen as energy shocks and rising oil prices pressure its economy. Japan imports the overwhelming majority of its energy, so a collapsing yen combined with surging import costs creates enormous strain domestically. Selling Treasuries gives Tokyo access to dollar liquidity it can use to intervene in currency markets and stabilize the yen before the situation spirals further. Japan has spent decades as one of the most reliable buyers of U.S. debt. If even Tokyo is becoming less comfortable absorbing massive amounts of Treasuries while inflation remains elevated and deficits continue exploding, markets should pay attention. Japan may simply see the same thing the bond market increasingly sees: the United States is issuing debt at an unsustainable pace into an environment where inflation is no longer fully under control. If that’s the case, that is not just a portfolio adjustment. That is a confidence signal. The uncomfortable reality is that the United States has become dangerously dependent on perpetual debt expansion at the exact moment global appetite for absorbing that debt is becoming less certain. 🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever And this is where the Federal Reserve’s trap becomes even more severe. If inflation reaccelerates while Treasury demand weakens simultaneously, the Fed faces two terrible options: raise rates further to defend credibility and contain inflation, risking deeper stress across banks, housing, private credit, equities, and the broader economy or step back in with liquidity programs and money printing to stabilize markets and absorb debt issuance, effectively reigniting the same inflation problem they spent years trying to contain. That is the corner policymakers have backed themselves into after years of artificially suppressed rates, endless stimulus, and the assumption that global demand for U.S. assets would remain infinite regardless of fiscal discipline. It won’t. And I wrote this past week about why it seems incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has a job in front of him that seems impossible.  The most dangerous part of this story is that markets still seem unwilling to fully process what sustained deterioration in Treasury demand would actually mean. Investors have spent decades treating U.S. government debt as the unquestioned risk free foundation of the financial system. But when foreign governments begin reducing exposure while inflation stays elevated and deficits spiral, that assumption starts getting tested in real time. And once confidence in the system itself begins eroding, things can unravel far faster than policymakers would like to admit. -- QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 08:45

Watch: Vance Urges UK Patriots To Defend Their Culture Against Starmer Mass Migration Betrayal Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, US Vice President JD Vance has sent a direct message of support to Britons standing up for their culture, telling attendees of the Unite the Kingdom rally to push forward despite Keir Starmer’s attempts to silence opposition to mass migration. The rally, held this past weekend in London and organised by Tommy Robinson, saw thousands of patriots turn out waving British flags.  Starmer’s government had tried to sabotage the event by blocking visas for 11 foreign speakers it labelled “far-right agitators.” 🚨 WOW! JD Vance just broke it down PERFECTLY for patriots in the West rising up against 3rd world migration, BUCKING Keir Starmer calling it "far-right""To everybody in the UK who rejects [3rd world migration], I'd encourage them to just KEEP ON GOING! It's OK to want to… pic.twitter.com/cKUjz95Nt7— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 19, 2026 The Prime Minister openly boasted about the bans on X, writing “I’ll always champion peaceful protest. But the Unite the Kingdom march organisers are peddling hatred and division. We’ve already blocked visas for far-right agitators who want to come here to spew their extremist views. They don’t speak for the decent, fair, respectful Britain I know.”  He followed up: “Today the voices of division will be loud. They don’t speak for the country I know, one that belongs to all of us.” A video from the event captured a striking contrast, showing a left-wing woman in tears hugging her masked companion in fright at the sight of the national flag.  Left-wing woman breaks down in TEARS while hugging mask wearing boyfriend after being triggered by thousands of people marching with British flags. 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/8JMyBBq3kw— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) May 18, 2026 Vance rejected the establishment narrative that wanting secure borders equals extremism. “To everybody in the UK who rejects 3rd world migration, I’d encourage them to just KEEP ON GOING! It’s OK to want to defend your culture!” Vance stated.  He added, “All over the West is this idea that the way to generate prosperity is to bring in MILLIONS and millions of unvetted people and DROP them into your neighborhoods — and we simply reject that idea!” “It’s OK to want to live in a safe neighborhood. It’s okay to want your job to go to yourself and your neighbors and not to a stranger who you don’t even know. It is reasonable for the people in Western societies to want to control who comes into their country and who doesn’t,” Vance stressed. He added: “A lot of people, frankly, a lot of people in the media have tried to persuade all of those people that it’s somehow racist to want to protect your borders… even though very often the very people who are most affected by low wage immigration are lower income black and Hispanic Americans right here in the United States of America, and I guarantee that’s true in the UK.” Vance concluded by drawing a direct link to America First: “So we believe in making America great again. You can’t do that unless you protect your borders. I’d encourage our friends in the UK to follow the same path.” This latest intervention builds on Vance’s repeated clashes with Starmer and European leaders. He previously called out the British Prime Minister to his face over the UK’s free speech crackdown. The US later vowed to use its “full arsenal of tools” against Starmer’s policies  Vance has also long warned about the dangers of Europe’s migration experiment, describing it as “civilisational suicide”  He has cautioned that Islamist extremists could seize control of European nukes within 15 years. Vance has also triggered globalist outrage with his blunt speeches on replacement-level migration. While Starmer brands patriotic pushback as “hatred and division,” ordinary Britons at the rally made clear they simply want what Vance described as basic common sense: safe streets, jobs for locals, and control over their borders. Vance’s words arrive as frustration with open borders boils over across the West. Working-class communities on both sides of the Atlantic are paying the price through suppressed wages, overburdened services, and rising insecurity — effects the political class routinely dismisses. By standing with those who reject cultural erasure, Vance is highlighting a fundamental truth: people of free nations have the sovereign right to preserve their identity and security. Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 08:05