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Lebanon Announces Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire, Trump Proclaims Iran 'Talks Continuing At Rapid Pace' Summary Trump has announced the "shooting will stop" in Lebanon, after phone calls with both sides. Says Iran talks back on "at rapid pace"; Lebanese presidency confirms Hezbollah agreed to US ceasefire proposal Iran announces halt to all exchanges with US, citing Israeli aggression in Lebanon. Trump says 'haven't heard' this from Tehran, vows to keep US naval blockade in place. Iran overnight initiated fresh attacks on neighboring Kuwait and even released video showing footage of a ballistic missile launch. The US bombed radar & drone sites in Iran in response to the Iranians having shot down a US drone over the weekend. Reports of foreign jets over Iranian airspace. Iran negotiator Ghalibaf charges US with breaking the ceasefire: "the naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon" were "clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire." Trump Truth Social: "Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - it always does!" //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 39% · No 62%View full market & trade on Polymarket *  *  * Lebanon Truce Affirmed The Lebanese presidency has announced that Hezbollah agreed to a US proposal on the mutual cessation of attacks, which will expand to all Lebanese territory. Per a regional Arab correspondent:  As we emphasized, the Israeli attack on Lebanon was obstructing the reaching of the agreement. The mediators exerted great effort today, and after the American pressure and the Israeli retreat, the doors are now open to return the negotiations to their natural and positive course, and there is no longer much left. Iran Talks Back On? Wishful thinking or already a reality? ...following a proclaimed Lebanon truce, uneasy at best: Trump Suggests He is Forging Lebanon Ceasefire Trump has announced the "shooting will stop" in Lebanon, after a flurry of phone calls, including with Netanyahu. This came shoon on the heels of Hezbollah signaling it is ready to agree to an immediate truce. Israel too has reportedly halted plans to begin new airstrikes on Beirut.  The Lebanon crisis caused Tehran to earlier announced it is halting all contacts with the US. Will the US-Iran talks now be back on? Trump to CNBC: 'I don't care' if talks are over Trump has shrugged off the apparent collapse of talks with Iran, after Tehran earlier said it has halted all communications with Washington over Israel's expanded assault on Lebanon and Hezbollah. Trump has freshly told CNBC by phone, "I don’t care if they’re over, honestly." "I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less," he added, and indicated he was "going to ask" Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "what’s going on with Lebanon." This suggests Trump could pressure America's ally to lower tensions. Trump appears to be betting the US can 'outlast' the Islamic Republic, in terms of inflicting economic pain amid the growing global oil supply crisis due to the Hormuz Strait closure. On this, he reacted as follows: He also said he wasn't worried about oil prices, which spiked following the report in Iranian state media that Tehran is vowing to “completely block” the Strait of Hormuz in addition to halting negotiations. “I think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance,” Trump said. Trump Reacts President Trump tells NBC News that he's not heard from Iran on reports they're suspending talks, and on Iran, "I think we've been talking too much if you want to know the truth, going silent would be very good" We'll keep the blockade in Hormuz. I think I can wait as long as they want. They're losing a fortune. His comments to NBC: “It’s an appropriate thing to say, because they’re better negotiators than they are fighters,” he said in a brief phone call. “But they haven’t informed us of that.” “It doesn’t mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there,” added Trump, who said Friday he would soon decide on a proposed deal to extend an ostensible ceasefire agreed to in early April. “We’ll keep the blockade.” State Media: Iran Stops Exchanging Messages with US Merely last week, Western MSM press reports were touting the usual 'close to a deal' headlines, but this morning demonstrates how illusory such claims were and are, as Iranian state media now suggests a total halt in communications between the sides. Per state Tasnim, "Iran stops exchanging messages with the US in protest against Zionist crimes." This as the IDF has sent ground forces deep into Lebanon, past the Litani River - in the deepest operation in decades. Tehran has insisted on linking up any US-Iran deal with a Israel-Lebanon peace. Tehran is now warning to "completely block the Strait of Hormuz, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait" - the latter with the cooperation of Yemen's Houthis. All of this has direct impact on the US-Iran ceasefire: IRAN'S STATE TV SAYS PROBABILITY OF CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN AND U.S. ENDING IS HIGH IF ATTACKS ON LEBANON DO NOT STOP Below is the full translated statement: • "The determination of the Iranian armed forces and all axes of the resistance front to respond to Zionist crimes and open new fronts". • "Tasnim has obtained information indicating that, given the continuation of the Zionist regime's crimes in Lebanon and considering that Lebanon was one of the preconditions for the ceasefire and that this ceasefire has now been violated on all fronts, including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team is stopping "talks and exchange of texts through a mediator"." • "The immediate cessation of the Zionist regime's aggressive and brutal army operations in Gaza and Lebanon and the necessity of the regime's complete withdrawal from the occupied areas in Lebanon have been emphasized by Iranian officials and negotiators, and there will be no talks until Iran and the resistance's views on this matter are met". • "Also, the Resistance Front and Iran have set their agenda to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, and activate other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters". Oil jumps on the headline of halted talks... Futures slide... Author and University of Chicago professor of the 'realist' school Robert Pape says the following on Monday published report: "We will run out of our cushion of oil inventories in July, whether it's the middle or end of July," he said. "And Iran knows that. So what Iran is doing is just stringing out the clock to get a better deal." "What that tells me is they're not interested in returning the price of oil back to where it was before the war," he said. "I think what we need to understand is Iran's goal is to continue instability, continue elevated price of the world's oil because it gains from that." For more, read our: "Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil CENTCOM: Intercepted Pair of Ballistic Missiles on Base On Monday morning US Central Command issued its official statement and explanation over the earlier tit-for-tat brief flare-up in fighting, which appears to have ended... "Last night at 11 p.m. ET, U.S. forces successfully intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American forces based in Kuwait. These missiles were immediately defeated and no American personnel were harmed," it said. "U.S. Central Command remains vigilant and will continue to protect our forces from Iranian aggression while supporting the ongoing ceasefire." Fresh Missiles on Kuwait The extended US-Iran ceasefire is once again being severely tested, after Iran earlier in the daylight hours of Monday initiated fresh attacks on neighboring Kuwait and even released video showing footage of a ballistic missile launch. Kuwait in turn confirmed that has been intercepting inbound drone and missile fire. It hosts a major American base, which is again being targeted, though it's unclear if anything has been hit. The IRGC subsequently identified that it targeted the US base in response to weekend US strikes on Iranian sites. According to a description of the released propaganda video: The start of the video includes a close-up of what looks to be a sticker on the body of a missile depicting a bruised US president Donald Trump, on the phone asking for help, and overlaid on a “closed” Strait of Hormuz. The caption reads: “Until the last American soldier leaves the region.” Iran's IRGC released footage showing the moment it launched missile attacks on what it claimed to be US airbases in Kuwait early Monday. READ MORE: https://t.co/yRpPilUQ9S pic.twitter.com/f1Q2l5OnMu — Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) June 1, 2026 All sides, including the Iranians and Kuwaitis, are saying they have a right to defend themselves. The United States, for its part, has said that it bombed radar and drone sites in Iran in response to the Iranians having shot down a US drone over the weekend. Kuwait, GCC Condemnation After the US base in Kuwait was freshly targeted, Kuwait's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterates the State of Kuwait’s condemnation and denunciation, in the strongest terms, of the heinous and repeated Iranian attacks, which represent a dangerous escalation and a direct assault on the security and stability of the State of Kuwait, as well as a flagrant violation of the rules of international law, the United Nations Charter, and Security Council Resolution 2817 of 2026, not to mention the grave threat they pose to the safety of civilians and vital facilities in the country," it said in a post on X. "The continuation and repetition of these aggressions undermine efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions and threaten security and stability in the region, emphasizing the State of Kuwait’s categorical rejection of these aggressive practices," it added. Also, a swift reaction was issued by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It expressed its "strongest condemnation" of Iran for its attack on Kuwait, blasting it as a "dangerous and irresponsible escalation". Saying Kuwait remains a crucial part of the GCC, the bloc stated it stands "united and firm" and they fully support "all the measures and procedures it [Kuwait] takes to protect its security, preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and maintain the security of its citizens and residents." IRGC Navy seeks to flex with increasing fast boat patrols of Strait of Hormuz: IRGC fast boats running 24/7 patrols in the Strait of Hormuz, per new footage from Iran's navy. The boats are steering commercial vessels through the waterway and intercepting any that don't follow orders. pic.twitter.com/tG5Vh71DMK — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 1, 2026 Iran Latest Warnings: "The Bill Comes Due"; Ceasefire Breached Top Iranian negotiator and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said that the continued American naval blockade of Iran's ports and Israel's intensifying offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon illustrate that the US is not truly complying with the ceasefire. He wrote on X that "the naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon" were "clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire." He stressed by way of warning: "Every choice has a price, and the bill comes due. It will all fall into place." As things in Lebanon intensify, given the IDF has plunged past the Litani River and plans to expand its ground force occupation. Yemen's Houthis say they are ready to join Hezbollah's efforts against Israel, per Tasnim. Iran's Foreign Ministry has also freshly addressed the Lebanon crisis: For immediate attention: The ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Its violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation. — Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) June 1, 2026 More... Iran's FM Spokesperson Baghaei: The other side keeps shifting its demands and sending contradictory messages, which is dragging out negotiations. Israel's escalation in Lebanon is aimed at destroying any chance diplomacy could work. The U.S. and Israel cannot be seen as separate.… pic.twitter.com/VFbOUwX9V2 — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 1, 2026 Trump: "Sit Back & Relax" Trump's latest Truth Social: "Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - it always does!" And here's pushback from Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy magazine: Although we don’t know the details of the rumored agreement between the United States and Iran—or even if one will eventually be reached—anyone with a triple-digit IQ understands that Israel and the United States made a colossal blunder when they started the war. None of their stated goals have been achieved: The Iranian regime did not collapse, it did not surrender its nuclear stockpile, and its missile and drone capabilities are intact. It has demonstrated that it can shut down the Strait of Hormuz anytime it wants to inflict significant damage on its neighbors. All of U.S. President Donald Trump’s and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s bragging and bluster over the past three months has been exposed as a lot of hot air. Iran Touts More Breaches of US Blockade A total of 15 vessels, including four oil tankers, have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The IRGC navy confirmed that the ships only completed their passage after receiving explicit permission and coordinating directly with its command structure. Washington and its Gulf allies (with the exception of Oman) have repeatedly condemned any attempt to impose an 'Iranian protocol' involving the extraction of tolls. In an official statement carried by Fars News, the IRGC issued a stark warning to the region, declaring that any cooperation with "hostile forces" would be viewed by Tehran as an "imminent security threat" that will be "dealt with accordingly". This is tantamount to warning foreign vessels they could come under direct attack if they don't comply. More Latest Developments via Newsquawk... Iran may propose changes to the US peace draft memorandum of understanding, according to Tasnim. This follows a report that President Trump proposed further changes to the existing text, while a source stated that text exchanges continue and that Iran may submit its own edits. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told state media that talks and message exchanges with the US are ongoing, and that the talks cannot be judged until a clear result is reached. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the negotiation team's visit to Qatar was positive. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that they have a legal obligation to prevent aggressors from using their territory and facilities to attack another country. Iran’s Presidential Office denied reports that Iranian President Pezeshkian submitted his resignation to the Supreme Leader, and stated that the stories were spread by some foreign media. Iranian Supreme Leader’s military adviser Mohsen Rezaei said Iran has no intention of yielding or compromising with the US and will not place itself in a weak position, while he also stated that US President Trump is betraying diplomacy for the third time by continuing a naval blockade on Iran and making excessive demands. IRGC said following aggression of US Army on a communication tower on Sirik Island, located in the Homozgan province an hour ago, fighters of the IRGC Aerospace Force targeted airbase where aggression originated and predicted targets were destroyed. Iran's top negotiator said "The naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon by the genocidal Zionist regime are clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire". Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said at this moment they do not believe that the US has good intentions towards Iran. Iran's FM Baghaei said "No negotiations have taken place on the details of the nuclear issue at this stage". One point being discussed is the allocation of funds for reconstruction. We are considering options for responding to the escalation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Iran's Baghaei said a ceasefire in Lebanon is an integral part of any agreement and end to the war; lack of trust and constant change in US and Israeli positions in Lebanon are causing a delay on the diplomatic process. The continuation of maritime piracy and attacks on Iranian shipping is an example of a violation of the ceasefire. The diplomatic apparatus is closely following developments and we will take every measure to defend Iran's sovereignty. The exchange of messages is still ongoing. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Iran's goal is not to hold ships in the Strait, but to declare a procedure that is not contrary to international law; these arrangements are not temporary and Iran will not back down. Stopping ships behind the Strait of Hormuz incurs storage and delay costs, and war insurance has increased by up to 500%. Accompanying Iranian forces costs less than war insurance and eliminates the risk of stoppage, inspection, and seizure. Iran's goal is not to hold the ships, but to declare a procedure that is not contrary to international law; these arrangements are not temporary and Iran will not back down. "Three consecutive explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas", Iran International reported. US President Trump reportedly sent tougher terms to Iran regarding the peace framework, according to officials cited by The New York Times. US President Trump posted "Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us". Full post "Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But don’t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively “chirping,” at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does! President DJT". US President Trump posted "Fake News CNN said today, routinely, that my Iran Nuclear Deal doesn’t talk about Nuclear, when actually it states, very clearly, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon". Full post "ScraperFake News CNN said today, routinely, that my Iran Nuclear Deal doesn’t talk about Nuclear, when actually it states, very clearly, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon. It then goes on, in very strong and lengthy detail, to discuss various other aspects of Nuclear. In fact, that’s what most of the agreement is about. CNN, and so many others in the Fake News Media, is a Low Ratings disaster. Even with new ownership, it is unlikely to ever get better!!! President DJT". US Secretary of State Rubio spoke in the last 48 hours with Lebanon's President and Israel's PM to try and promote a new ceasefire initiative, according to a senior US official cited by Axios's Ravid. said:. US senior official said that the new initiative was proposed as part of the negotiations taking place between Israel and Lebanon, as another round of talks between diplomats from both sides is scheduled to take place this week in Washington. In order to advance the talks, US proposed that as a first step, Hezbollah stop all attacks on Israel, and in return, Israel will refrain from escalation in Beirut. US Central Command confirmed military forces conducted strikes against Iranian radar at command and control sites located in Goruk and Qeshm Island over the weekend. Kuwait Army said air defences are intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 15:18

Russia Bans Jet Fuel Exports As Ukrainian Attacks Cripple Refining Russia is banning exports of jet fuel through November 30, 2026, as it seeks to ensure domestic supply amid intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian refining infrastructure, OilPrice.com reported. Russia on Monday announced it is temporarily banning jet fuel exports until the end of November to keep sufficient domestic aviation fuel supplies. Supplies under intergovernmental agreements are exempted from the ban, the Russian government said today. The decision comes after drone strikes on refineries pushed Russia’s crude-processing rate to the lowest in more than 16 years. In an effort to curb the flow of petrodollars into the Kremlin’s coffers, Ukraine has targeted a wide range of energy assets including sea ports and pipelines.  The ban is not expected to be felt on the tight international jet fuel market as Russia is a small exporter of aviation fuels.  Last year, it exported an average of 30,000 barrels a day, or less than 2% of the global supplies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. Daily average exports slipped to 28,000 barrels in the first four months of 2026, with Turkey being the main buyer, the data show.  But the ban on kerosene exports follows a ban on gasoline exports, in force since April 1, as Russia has seen its refining capacity and capability crippled in recent weeks by intensifying drone attacks from Ukraine. Kyiv has targeted several major refiners and oil export terminals since the war in Iran began, aiming to cripple Russia's ability to take advantage of the soaring international oil and fuel prices. Last month, Ukraine targeted the 300,000-barrels per day Yaroslavl oil refinery in Russia, escalating the drone attacks on Russian refining and oil exporting assets, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. “We are bringing the war back home – to Russia – and that’s only fair,” Zelenskyy said in May. The attack on the Yaroslavl oil refinery, co-owned by Gazprom Neft, was the fourth on the facility in one month, as Ukraine looks to diminish Russia’s refining and export capabilities amid soaring international oil and fuel prices. Since international crude oil prices surged following the war in the Middle East, Russia has boosted its oil revenues as not only prices have jumped, but Russian oil was made desirable in India again, thanks to U.S. waivers for sales of Russia’s crude already loaded on tankers. Ukraine is intensifying attacks on Russian refineries and oil export ports as Kyiv looks to limit Russia’s oil exports and revenues. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 14:45

US Coast Guard Eliminates Race-Based Enlistment Preferences Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times, The U.S. Coast Guard has eliminated race-based preferential enlistment for college students who wish to join the service and commission as officers, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a May 29 statement. “The program in question, the College Student Pre-Commissioning Initiative (CSPI), includes a preference for students from educational institutions that meet certain quotas for specifically identified racial groups in their student bodies,” DHS said. “Such requirements stand in stark contrast to the Trump Administration’s focus on fairness, merit, and eliminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies throughout the federal government. They are also in violation of the equal protection requirements of the U.S. Constitution.” CSPI is a scholarship program aimed at college juniors and seniors. Students who join the program become active-duty Coast Guard members and are entitled to military benefits. The enrollees remain at the university until they complete their degrees. During academic breaks, the students work with the Coast Guard. A mentor will be assigned to guide each student as they prepare to begin their career, according to the Coast Guard website. To apply for CSPI, the student must be a sophomore or junior at a federally designated Minority Serving Institution, according to the website. Such schools include Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic-Serving Institutions, Asian American and Native American and Pacific Islander-Serving Institutions, Predominantly Black Institutions, Tribal Colleges and Universities, Native American Non-Tribal Institutions, and Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian-Serving Institutions. DHS said it has terminated such requirements as of May 28. With the elimination of racial requirements, CSPI will function as a race-neutral program in which becoming commissioned officers in the Coast Guard will be determined by merit and achievement rather than “immutable characteristics,” the department said. “The Trump Administration is more focused than ever on eliminating unconstitutional DEI policies like this one,” DHS general counsel James Percival said. “By getting rid of these unconstitutional diversity quotas, we are returning the Coast Guard’s focus to military readiness, upholding the law, and making America a safer place.” Crackdown on Military DEI On Dec. 18 last year, President Donald Trump signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, which authorized $901 billion in military and national security spending. Sec. 901 of the bill prohibited DEI programs in the Department of War. The Secretary of War was banned from developing, implementing, or maintaining “an employee resource group or an affinity group based on race, color, ethnicity, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, or gender identity.” The secretary was also prohibited from developing a training course related to diversity, equity, inclusion, intersectionality, and any critical theory related to race or gender. Prior to the bill’s signing, the Modern Military Association of America had criticized the anti-DEI measures, calling them “harmful provisions,” according to a Dec. 10, 2025, statement from the association. “The strength of the U.S. military lies not only in its size, but in its ability to draw on the talents, skills, and lived experiences of Americans from all backgrounds. A diverse force is more agile, innovative, and prepared to meet the complex challenges of modern warfare,” the association said. “If enacted, they would jeopardize the health and well-being of service members, undermine recruitment and retention, and weaken overall military readiness.” The Trump administration has steadily moved ahead with dismantling DEI policies and practices in the military despite opposition. On Jan, 20, 2025, the first day in office of his second term, Trump issued the presidential action “Ending Radical and Wasteful Government DEI Programs and Preferencing.” On Jan.27, 2025, Trump signed another presidential action, stating that individuals expressing false “gender identity” cannot “satisfy the rigorous standards necessary for military service.” In a July 20, 2025, announcement on X, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said that after Trump was sworn into office, the Defense Department moved on three key initiatives—reestablishing deterrence, rebuilding the military, and restoring warrior ethos. This includes reevaluating DEI practices in the military. “The results so far? Distractions like DEI, [critical race theory], social justice, politically correct stuff—gone,” Hegseth said. During a May 23 address at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, Hegseth doubled down on his criticism of DEI in the military. He called the slogan “our diversity is our strength” the “single dumbest phrase” in military history. “Now, these sorts of silly things can be laughed at when they occur in a civilian lounge or civilian faculty lounge or debated in graduate seminars. But they cannot be tolerated in our formations. These ideas are what get people killed. Diversity is not our strength. Unity is our strength,” Hegseth said. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 13:55

Trump: Hezbollah Agrees Shooting Will Stop & Israel Will Avert Attack On Beirut Update(1335ET): In a rare development, Iran itself is now issuing warnings for northern Israel. Tehran is saying that if Beirut comes under fresh Israeli attack, then new assaults on northern Israeli settlements will in turn be unleashed: Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has warned residents of northern Israel to leave the area if Israel carries out threats to expand attacks on Beirut and its southern suburbs. But at the same time there are reports saying Hezbollah has indicated to Washington that it is ready to agree to a ceasefire if Israel does the same. And more: HEZBOLLAH SAYS CONSENT WOULD BE WITHOUT PRECONDITION:CHANNEL 12 TRUMP: HEZBOLLAH, ISRAEL AGREE NOT TO ATTACK EACH OTHER Trump phone call with Netanyahu: Hezbollah agrees shooting will stop; will be no IDF troops going to Beirut: Regional Asharq news writes that "Lebanon informed the US of Hezbollah's acceptance of Washington's proposal and its readiness to commit to not targeting Israel." But a ground war in southern Lebanon is already well underway - and a truce would likely be determinant on some level of an IDF withdrawal of territory captured in the last days. *  *  * The US-Iran ceasefire is being tested on multiple fronts, with Tehran already having announced Monday the suspension of contact with Washington over the escalation of Israel's ground war in Lebanon, where the IDF keeps pushing further north of the Litani River. Israel looks poised to resume major airstrikes on Beirut, despite that technically it has a US-mediated ceasefire in place with the government of Lebanon. Israeli leaders have vowed to halt Hezbollah's persistent drone strikes on northern Israel, and to establish a security buffer zone. Also on Monday Israel's defense minister threatened there will be "no calm in Beirut" if Hezbollah's rockets and drones continue raining down on Israeli communities and troop locations. This is a direct threat to resume airstrikes on the capital city. This has direct impact on the US-Iran ceasefire: IRAN'S STATE TV SAYS PROBABILITY OF CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN AND U.S. ENDING IS HIGH IF ATTACKS ON LEBANON DO NOT STOP via EuroNews "The Dahiyeh in Beirut is no different from the communities in northern Israel – if there is no calm in the north, there will be no calm in Beirut," Israel Katz said in a statement released by his office, Dahiyeh a Hezbollah stronghold near the country's main international airport, but is densely packed with civilians. Each wave of Israeli attacks has historically resulted in high civilian casualties. "At the same time, the IDF continues to operate with fire and maneuver against Hezbollah terrorists and infrastructure in Lebanon ... in order to push threats away from IDF forces and from the residents of the State of Israel, and to turn the Litani area into a zone under IDF security control, free of weapons and terrorists," Katz added. Some pundits have argued that the new Lebanon campaign is aimed at hindering Washington from making a 'bad deal' with Tehran (from Tel Aviv's perspective). Others have said Netanyahu appears "stuck" and doesn't have a clear mission in Lebanon: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is “stuck” in terms of military strategy in Lebanon, according to Jad Melki, professor of media studies at the Lebanese American University. Melki told Al Jazeera that most of Israel’s escalation has been targeting civilian centres in the city of Tyre, villages in south Lebanon, and historical sites like Beaufort Castle. “Most of these have been built by Netanyahu as major strategic accomplishments, but those have been mostly exaggerated. Even the Beaufort Castle – unless we’re living in the 12th century, it’s not a strategic military location anymore,” he said. “The problem is that Netanyahu is stuck,” Melki told Al Jazeera. “He cannot advance very quickly, as he will break the Israeli army, and he cannot sit still in the occupied territories of South Lebanon right now because the resistance is basically hunting his soldiers like sitting ducks, so he’s stuck and can only bomb hospitals and kill civilians and medical workers.” Opinions have remained varied as to what Israel hopes to gain by escalating things in Lebanon at this fragile point where Israeli is at war on multiple fronts (and might the Houthis join next?): Told @BeckyCNN: - IRGC media claim suspension of Iran-US exchanges of messages, but we should be cautious pending official announcement. - Israel may tell Trump that escalation in Lebanon will strengthen his hand vs Iran, but likely aim is to derail Iran-US diplomacy. pic.twitter.com/NWmTQsbIbg — Mohammad Ali Shabani (@mashabani) June 1, 2026 Local Israeli media outlets have also in some cases questioned the strategic utility of the entire operation in establishing a 'buffer zone', pointing out that Hezbollah’s tactical drone fleet is widely believed to possess an operational range in excess of 30 km. Hezbollah has been having success especially with fiber-optic cable drones which are not to susceptible to jamming, hacking, or other electronic warfare interception measures. All of these developments mean that the Washington-mediated ceasefire is effectively dead, and as Hezbollah's asymmetric warfare is likely to ramp up in response. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 13:34

French Commandos Board & Seize 4th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Since September France announced Monday another weekend interdiction of a Russian "shadow fleet" vessel in international waters near its coast. The French Navy boarded and detained a sanctioned oil tanker, President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday, in an operation which had the assistance from the UK Royal Navy and other allies. This marks the fourth time since September that French commandoes have intercepted a boarded a sanctioned Russian vessel in regional waters. via AFP/French military The vessel, identified as the Tagor, originated from Murmansk, Russia, and was taken by French authorities while it traversed around 400 nautical miles (740 km) west of the tip of Brittany. "It is unacceptable for ships to circumvent international sanctions, violate the law of the sea and fund the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for more than 4 years," Macron wrote in a post on X. The apparent legal justification France's navy has relied on for such actions is the practice of "flag-hopping" - which involves a crew repeatedly changing displayed flags, along with often invalid registrations to thwart international tracking monitors. At the time of boarding, via soldiers rappelling from helicopter, the ship was falsely flying a Cameroonian flag while reportedly en route to the coastal African city of Limbe, Cameroon. Macron confirmed further on X: "This operation took place in the Atlantic Ocean, on the high seas, with the support of several partners, including the United Kingdom, in strict compliance with the law of the sea." The Kremlin again condemned such 'unlawful' seizures in international waters, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, "We consider these acts as illegal, they border on international piracy … Russia is taking measures to ensure the safety of its cargo." The vessel's captain is a Russian citizen, according to an embassy disclosure from Paris. According to more: Guillaume Le Rasle, a spokesperson for the prefecture, said the tanker was under EU and US sanctions. “It is a vessel that was known and tracked,” he told AFP. “The decision to divert it was taken Sunday evening. The objective of the diversion is to verify the validity of its flag,” Le Rasle said, adding that the tanker, which has frequently changed flags, was “almost empty” at the time of boarding. La Marine nationale a arraisonné hier matin un nouveau pétrolier sous sanctions internationales en provenance de Russie : le Tagor. Notre détermination est constante et totale. Cette intervention a été effectuée en Atlantique, en haute mer,… pic.twitter.com/zxEslYjbUE — Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) June 1, 2026 The last several seized tankers were also flying flags of African nations, and these interdictions have stretched back through last year. In some instances, Russia has been sending military escorts - which of course has seen French and European militaries hold off executing any action. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:50

US Moves To Further Restrict China's Access To Advanced AI Chips Authored by Evgenia Filiaminova via The Epoch Times, The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued new guidance to prevent Chinese companies from obtaining advanced U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) chips, such as Nvidia’s most sophisticated Blackwell processors, through overseas subsidiaries. The May 31 guidance clarifies that export licenses are required for entities headquartered in China or Macau, regardless of where their affiliates are located. The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) said that licensing requirements for advanced computing items destined for China- or Macau-headquartered entities were first established in November 2023 and remain in effect. The agency said the requirement applies even when those entities are located outside China or Macau. The clarification follows confusion over a May 2025 announcement by the BIS that it would not enforce certain parts of the Biden-era AI diffusion rule. The rule was designed to restrict sales of advanced AI chips to strategic rivals while allowing broader access for U.S. allies. The BIS said the policy change did not remove existing licensing requirements for exports involving Chinese or Macau-based customers, meaning companies must still obtain licenses unless an exemption applies. The guidance also states that legitimate data center operators can continue to use, maintain, store, or replace advanced AI chips and equipment they already own. The clarification does not require companies to shut down or remove existing systems. Nvidia’s sales of advanced AI chips to China remain subject to U.S. export controls. The Trump administration created a framework in 2025 allowing certain chips, including the H200, to be sold to approved Chinese customers under Commerce Department oversight. Trump said in a Dec. 8, 2025, post on Truth Social that sales would be permitted subject to a 25 percent fee benefiting the U.S. government and limited to approved Chinese customers. President Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang as they discuss investing in America, at the White House on April 30, 2025. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images An Nvidia spokesperson told The Epoch Times that the BIS guidance doesn’t impact its business. It “simply reaffirms that NVIDIA’s current sales and vetting process is correct — licenses are required to ship controlled products to [China] headquartered companies,” the spokesperson said. The Epoch Times reached out to AMD, another major supplier of AI chips, for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time. Analysts Warn of Potential Gap Former U.S. State Department official Chris McGuire, who focuses on technology and national security issues, said in a May 31 post on X that the ambiguity surrounding BIS enforcement may have enabled overseas subsidiaries of Chinese firms to legally acquire advanced U.S. AI chips without export licenses. “Chinese companies have been buying these chips, very likely at scale,” McGuire wrote in the social media post. He argued that the lack of clarity about which export controls remained in effect created an opening that may have allowed subsidiaries of Chinese firms operating in countries such as Malaysia to purchase Nvidia’s Blackwell processors. McGuire said the new BIS guidance appears to close that pathway by making clear that exports to China-headquartered companies outside China still require licenses. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang eats a bowl of noodles on a street in Beijing on May 15, 2026. Jiang Panpan via AP/Screenshot via The Epoch Times He said that BIS has not clarified whether it will enforce due diligence requirements that apply to semiconductor foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) when assessing whether advanced AI chips could ultimately benefit Chinese companies. “This is a massive loophole that still needs to be closed,” McGuire said. The Epoch Times reached out to TSMC for comment but did not receive a response by publication time. Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute specializing in U.S.–China relations, raised enforcement concerns. “This looks like an apparently MASSIVE loophole at the Department of Commerce,” Sobolik said in a May 31 post on X. Quoting McGuire’s analysis, he questioned the effectiveness of export controls if they are not consistently enforced. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:30

U.S. Oil Reserves To Dry Up Before August? As oilprice.com asked earlier this week, why hasn’t oil hit $150 (yet)? Tonight at 7 PM ET, ZeroHedge will host two former Goldman heavyweights to answer the question: is the recent oil price surge merely a temporary geopolitical shock, or are we entering a period of structurally higher energy prices? Joining the discussion are former colleagues Jeff Currie, now chief strategy officer for energy pathways at the Carlyle Group, and Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten. The conversation will be hosted by Real Vision's Ash Bennington. After five potential deals to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and none resulting in a full resumption of traffic, Currie’s betting that it won’t be different this time: On @cnbcAsiaTV this morning, @CommodMkt said, "Sell The Tweet, Buy The Molcule." Currie detailed that Trump tweeted five times that the war was effectively over, but it has not happened. The chart shows my guess of the five times. Currie is correct. If you bought the crude oil… https://t.co/XosPN03Nm4 pic.twitter.com/ipdgaNXYqE — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) May 25, 2026 Interesting highlight by Jim Bianco: “If you bought the crude oil collapse every time Trump said the war is over, you made $58, even though the price is only up $27 since the war started.“ Even if it is different this time, Currie has argued that global oil markets were already facing structural supply shortages before tensions with Iran escalated, with years of underinvestment leaving the system increasingly vulnerable to disruptions. In his view, the current conflict has simply accelerated a trend that was already underway, bringing forward a period of sustained higher oil prices that many investors have yet to fully appreciate. Strait closure + baked in supply constraints, he says, could mean American storage tanks run dry as soon as July 4… just in time for the big 250 celebration. "I've never seen anything like it before." Oil storage tanks in the United States will run empty "somewhere in the July 4 period," Carlyle's Jeff Currie tells @flacqua https://t.co/vHoZcNL6ur pic.twitter.com/06RRdr6LqP — Bloomberg (@business) May 6, 2026 Murti likewise remains bullish oil. Last October, he joined ZeroHedge for a debate on the price outlook and argued that crude prices were headed higher… a peaceful time when WTI crude sat at $60/barrell. The months that followed validated Murti so let’s see if that happens again. Together, Currie and Murti will examine whether current oil prices fully reflect the underlying supply picture, how much of today's rally is attributable to Iran, what role U.S. foreign policy may play going forward, and whether investors should prepare for a prolonged period of elevated energy prices. See you tonight at 7pm ET, here on the ZH homepage, X feed, or YouTube channel.   Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:00

Them's Fightin' Words By Benjamin Picton, Rabobank Senior Market Strategist Resigned Brent crude front-month futures are inching higher this morning after ending May down almost 20%. The May selloff has been courtesy of Mr Market’s Pavlovian response to fresh peace rumours, though it still remains the case that a deal has not been done and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. US equity indices closed higher across the board on Friday, but Asian stocks are mixed in early trade today. The S&P500 has now had nine-consecutive positive weekly closes and is sitting at a fresh all-time-high, with futures pointed at further gains when markets open later today. While crude futures are lower, spot prices for Malaysian Tapis crude are proving a little more sticky and are still trading around the levels seen through late May and early April. Singapore gasoil (diesel) spot prices are testing support at $135/bbl, but even at those short-term lows prices are way above the $90.41/bbl recorded on February 26th (the last close before the war started) or the January prices in the high $70s, before the market started to price in what two carrier groups in the Middle East might mean. Gold prices rose by 0.68% last week. This was the first positive weekly close since May 8th, and another example of markets respecting the $4,500/oz support level. Gold is now trading at levels similar to those seen in late December and early January as a number of central banks liquidated holdings in a scramble for Dollar liquidity earlier in the Hormuz crisis. Sovereign yields are moving higher this morning after falling for much of last week. US 2-year yields are up 2bps to 4.04% in early trade, Aussie 2s are up 4bps to 4.56%, but New Zealand 2s are curiously flat after a hawkish RBNZ last week and a national budget that showed fiscal tightening will be delayed beyond the 2026/27 financial year. Moves at the longer end are even more pronounced, with 10-year Treasury yields up 3bps to 4.47%. The shift higher in crude and yields could be a sign of markets beginning to resign themselves to the idea that a deal will remain elusive in the short term. The creep from “any minute now” this time last week to “maybe, or maybe not” is underway. Regular readers will know that RaboResearch updated our baseline view on the Hormuz crisis last week to suggest that the Strait is likely to remain mostly closed through to September as the parties to negotiations find that their red lines over Iran’s nuclear program are (still) incompatible, and the Iranians realise that giving up their oil market leverage would be a foolish thing to do. A bad sign arrived this morning with the news that Iranian President Pezeshkian had offered his resignation to Supreme Leader Khamenei. Pezeshkian has reportedly claimed that he is unable to run the government and carry out his responsibilities, because the civilian government has been sidelined by the hardliners in the IRGC – the guys with the guns. This is a new angle on the view that various factions in Iran are competing with each other, and that there are large disagreements on how negotiations with the US should be handled, or if they should be happening at all. Donald Trump raised some eyebrows yesterday when he said that the Iranian military (the Artesh) is ‘moderate’ and had been left alone during American strikes. This places Pezeshkian, foreign minister Araghchi, and possibly parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf (newly re-appointed) alongside the Artesh in the ‘moderate’ camp willing to do a deal, while the IRGC resists agreement with the US and insists on Iran’s rights over Hormuz and the progress of its nuclear program. We think that it will take longer yet before the IRGC sees eye-to-eye with the moderates, and that a continued closure with risks of further strikes is more likely than an agreement that is amenable to all and satisfies Donald Trump’s need to sign something that looks better than Barack Obama’s JCPOA. Of course, it may be the case that the much-maligned JCPOA was maligned for a reason. To paraphrase Solon of Athens, the JCPOA might not have contained the best terms, but it might have contained the best terms all parties could be induced to accept. While the Hormuz issue drags on, the Ukraine war also continues to percolate and threatens to spread into Europe. Ukraine is deepening cooperation with EU states over drone technology, which has been used to great effect against Russian energy targets in recent months. Meanwhile, a Russian drone reportedly struck an apartment building in NATO member country Romania late last week.  Former Russian President and close Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev took to X to warn “Citizens of EU countries, You should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia. So be vigilant and don't be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over...” To quote Yosemite Sam: “them’s fightin’ words”. Citizens of EU countries, You should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia. So be vigilant and don't be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over. But you know who to ask why! — Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) May 29, 2026 Clearly the Kremlin is not happy that Europe is continuing to support Ukraine in a conflict that some analysts are now saying has turned in the latter’s favor. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 11:30

Inside The Major Bill Poised To Reshape The US Housing Market Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times, The United States may be on track to implement the first comprehensive housing legislation in decades. For the past several years, housing affordability has been a significant subject across the country, with many young people struggling to achieve the dream of homeownership. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have tried to reverse the trend by advancing the 21st Century Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream (ROAD) to Housing Act of 2025. Here is a look inside the sweeping housing package and the path to passage. Inside the Act Although the current administration has examined strategies to expand access to the housing market, the bipartisan legislative initiative aims to bolster supply for middle-class families. The bill’s main provision is a limit on institutional investors’ purchases of single-family homes. Both chambers tweaked the proposal. The Senate approved language that requires major investors who build single‑family rental homes to sell those properties within seven years. The House’s version still aims to rein in Wall Street’s footprint in the single‑family market, but its latest draft eases the restrictions. Lawmakers added wider exemptions for institutional buyers of newly constructed rentals, homes needing substantial renovation, and several other categories. Other measures aim to facilitate more construction, including incentives to build more homes, convert abandoned buildings into housing, and modernize existing homes. In addition, Washington bolstered eligible income limits for the HOME Investment Partnerships Program, a federal block grant program that state and local governments use to build, maintain, and support affordable housing for low‑income households. Officials created a Housing Supply Framework to enable best practices in state and local zoning and land use. The legislative text also expands banks’ authority to make public welfare investments supporting affordable housing. The bill raises the cap for banks’ public welfare investments to 20 percent from 15 percent. Lawmakers removed the permanent chassis requirement for manufactured homes. The long-standing federal rule required that manufactured homes be constructed on a permanent steel frame to qualify under the federal construction code. It also includes the Modular Housing Production Act and other reforms to streamline the production of factory-built housing. There was also some focus on the demand side of the equation. For example, the bill establishes incentives for mortgage lenders to originate small-dollar mortgages—typically less than $100,000—to address the financing gap for low-cost homes. Additionally, Congress updated rules on appraisal standards and fees for these small-dollar loans. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act includes reforms to Veterans Affairs housing policies. The major changes include expanding access to Veterans Affairs home loans, improving consumer protections for borrowers, and enhancing housing support for disabled and homeless veterans. Congressional Path Unlike other pieces of legislation, the housing affordability bill has moved quickly through Congress—something that President Donald Trump had requested. Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, introduced legislation in December 2025. Two months later, it passed 390–9 in the lower chamber. As it arrived in the upper chamber, senators made substitutions rather than take up the House bill. The amended legislation passed 89–10 and was sent back to the House, where it passed 396–13. It will now be delivered to the Senate for final approval. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said the bipartisan housing bill will provide relief for families nationwide. “We worked closely with the White House and our colleagues in both chambers on a bill that puts families first and addresses the housing crisis,” they said in a May 20 joint statement. “There’s still work to be done and we are committed to continuing to work with the White House and our colleagues in the House on a housing bill that can pass the Senate and get to the president’s desk.” What the Industry Says The housing industry widely lauded Congress for moving ahead with the legislation. Shortly after the House passed the bill, the National Association of Home Builders noted that it addresses several problems facing Americans today, mainly housing shortages and affordability challenges. “The bottom line is that the housing crisis is a supply problem,” Bill Owens, the group’s chairman, said in a statement. “Congress can help by improving access to capital, strengthening workforce pipelines, expanding the availability of buildable lots and reducing excessive regulatory costs and permitting delays. “If we want to make housing more attainable, we must make it easier and less expensive to build.” Emily Cadik, CEO of the Affordable Housing Tax Credit Coalition, stated that increasing the banks’ public welfare investment cap to 20 percent will “unlock billions of dollars in new private investment.” “Additional changes in the updated House legislation will further strengthen our ability to finance more affordable housing to address our nation’s immense need,” Cadik said in a statement. The House passing the Senate’s amended version would both enhance housing supply and expand access to affordable mortgage credit, said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “[The legislation] will help advance meaningful housing affordability solutions for our nation’s homeowners and renters,” he said. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 10:30

"Firing On All Cylinders, But..." US Manufacturing Surveys Send Mixed Signals In May With US hard data taking a beating (relative to expectations) last week (red line below), analysts remain hopeful that US Manufacturing will hold up (durable goods orders were solid) with this morning's Manufacturing PMIs set to signal stability. The final May S&P Global US Manufacturing rose to 55.1 (down from the 55.3 flash print) but the strongest since April 2022 ISM's Manufacturing PMI survey also signaled improvement, up from 52.7 to 54.0 (better than 53.0 expected). "At first glance, the manufacturing sector seems to be firing on all cylinders but lift the hood and the picture is not so clear," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The headline PMI has hit a four-year high, with strong factory production growth for a second successive month in response to a further marked upturn in order books, but since the outbreak of war in the Middle East we have seen production and demand buoyed by stock building as companies worry over rising prices and supply difficulties. This stockpiling was again widely evident in May and makes it hard to take an accurate reading on the underlying health of the manufacturing economy, as growth will cool once this stock build has run its course," Williamson noted. "The incidence of supply chain delays is the highest since August 2022, with the buying of safety stocks not only adding to the supply squeeze from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz but also pushing prices higher for a wide variety of inputs. Williamson ends on a more ominous - stagflationary - notes: warning that the resulting steep jump in producer costs sends a worrying signal that broader economy inflation has further to rise in the coming months. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 10:08