Zerohedge

IRGC Boasts Of Fully Intact Speedboat Fleet For 'Swarm Attacks' In Hormuz Via Middle East Eye As renewed attacks between Iran and the US expand into Iraq and Yemen, the Hamshahri daily, which has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has dedicated its front page to a report on the force's speedboats in the Gulf. On Wednesday, the daily described the boats as the "winning card in the Persian Gulf" and said they are one of the main elements of Iran's deterrence against an expansion of US attacks. "The fleet has become one of the most complex challenges facing American forces in the Persian Gulf over the past two decades by relying on the 'swarm attack' tactic. It has also served as Iran's strategic tool in the Strait of Hormuz over the past five months," Hamshahri wrote. via Reuters According to the report, Iran's naval strategy is based on developing small, high-speed, low-cost boats in large numbers. Rather than competing directly with larger fleets, the strategy aims to increase the enemy's costs and limit its freedom of action. On the role of the boats in keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, Hamshahri added: "The combination of speedboats, naval mines, cruise and ballistic missiles, and drones has completed the puzzle of Iran's strategic encirclement of the Strait of Hormuz." Brigadier General Hossein Alaei, the first commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy and a former Iranian defence official, has joined political figures calling for an end to the war with the United States, saying Iran's true victory lies in restoring peace and stability. Alaei, who served as a senior IRGC commander during the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), commented on the conflicts launched against Iran by the United States and Israel since June 2025. "In war, while it is true that Iran defends itself, stands firm, and strikes back at its enemy, the very existence of war is to the detriment of the Iranian people," he said. The former IRGC commander also criticized the collapse of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States. He described the agreement as a complete victory for Iran and a defeat for Israel. "In this agreement, we gave up virtually nothing," Alaei said. "The US believes it has stripped, damaged and destroyed Iran's nuclear program. The maximum we have conceded is that we will discuss the nuclear issue in the future, while from the beginning Iran's position was not to possess nuclear weapons." Iranians sing "Bella Ciao" to mock the Americans while cruising through the Strait of Hormuz, as a vessel waits in the background for permission from the IRGC to pass. pic.twitter.com/C08QEKkFWn — The Saviour (@TheSaviour) July 26, 2026 He also said the agreement had put pressure on Israel to halt its military strikes on Lebanon. "Israel wanted to strike Lebanon every day; through this agreement, we stopped Israel's daily attacks on Lebanon. This is a very big victory," he said. While hardline factions in Iran have called for an end to all negotiations with the United States and for the war to continue since military clashes resumed on July 7, some figures from the older generation of the IRGC, including Alaei, are advocating an end to the fighting. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 12:05

Archegos 2.0? Star AI Investor Dumps Assets To Citadel After Massive Levered Bets Blow Up Update (1130ET): The Wall Street Journal reports that Situational Awareness, the highflying artificial-intelligence-focused hedge-fund firm, sold the bulk of its stock portfolio to Ken Griffin's investment firm Citadel after suffering deep losses, according to people familiar with the matter. *  *  * Update (1000ET): Situational Awareness has exited all of their public investments, CNBC’s David Faber reports on air, citing people familiar with the situation. Faber reports that the liquidation was done “through one enormous trade." Roughly two-thirds of the assets under management at Situational Awareness were public equities, both that he owned on the long side and that he was shorting, Faber says. That could help explain the panic bid in Nasdaq this morning, as investors may believe the overhang from this unwind is over... ...do you really think that Leopold was the only 'smartest man in the room' that was using TRS to massively lever into momentum? *  *  * In 2020/2021, one fund almost single-handedly used massive amounts of leverage to drive several big media and tech stocks dramatically higher. That fund - Archegos - run by the now infamous Bill Hwang - used Total Return Swaps (TRS) to build massive levered positions on the back of de minimus capital (and even more notably, without everyone seeing how much he really owns because these were 'off-balance-sheet' swaps). For a while, everything was awesome. The prime brokers were earning their interest and Archegos was making bank, Hwang was a genius, as the shares rose on the back of their own virtuous buying circle. But then, one day in March 2021, one of his big stocks (ViacomCBS) suddenly drops a lot because the company sold more shares. The banks came knocking for some more collateral to cover the losses (which were huge due to the leverage), but Archegos didn't have the cash (and they had been using TRS from a number of brokers - none of which knew about - creating a systemic crisis).  The prime brokers were forced to liquidate the holdings (first one to sell wins), and the result was the escalator up in shares became an elevator down (see chart above) in a number of the names that Archegos was holding. Since then we have had a few scares, but in general, banks have improved their risk management process (a number of risk managers were fired over Archegos). But, the money that primes can make from the interest and the incessant momentum of the AI bubble perhaps became too much to miss out on... especially when you know other competitors are doing 'the thing'. All of which brings us to the last month... About six weeks ago, we raised a big red flag that something was going on as soaring funding costs suggested the banks were offering significant leverage... Unprecedented surge in S&P funding costs by dealers lending out futures and Total Return Swaps (remember Archegos) to institutional clients. Think of it as lending costs for long positions. pic.twitter.com/x9KQu4r9MK — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 15, 2026 The last few weeks have seen dramatic unwinds of a number of the highest-flying AI-related names (and the total collapse of momentum)... Put those two things together and we smelled a TRS-Tantrum. Overnight, we may have found the first culprit caught in this over-levered trap. Situational Awareness, a hedge fund launched by former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner that manages around $20 billion, is seeking new money after facing losses linked to declining AI stocks, the Financial Times reported. Situational Awareness (SA) said in an investor letter dated July 24 outlining its half-year performance that it had "not been immune" to the market moves, including in Asia, but added that the dynamic had created opportunities for investment, the FT reported. The hedge fund was up 439% on a net basis this year through the end of June, the paper said.  The fund engaged existing investors and lenders in discussions on raising capital, according to the FT, which cited unidentified people briefed on the matter. “PS. At times we call out opportunities that seem like a particularly good time to add funds, if you have been waiting for one,” he said in the investor letter, seen by the FT, which was sent in recent days and offered the ability to invest new cash on August 1. Some investors have been offered the option to purchase assets in its portfolio, the newspaper added. The talks were described as ad-hoc by one of the people. As Bloomberg reports, some of the fund’s largest holdings have slumped in recent weeks. Shares of AI-focused cloud platform Nebius Group NV, in which the fund disclosed a multi-billion-dollar position in May, have dropped 48% from a peak last month, wiping around $35 billion from the company’s market value. In March, Situational reported a large position in Sandisk Corp., which has fallen 56% in just over a month, and another in SharonAI Holdings Inc., which is down by a similar margin since mid-June. Do those charts look familiar? Look again at the PARA chart at the top - pumped and dumped by Archegos. CNBC's David Faber reported this morning that several of the firm’s prime brokers - including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase - have been working with the fund as it seeks to meet margin requirements or reduce positions in an orderly fashion, according to people familiar with the discussions. The brokers have been marketing a group of the firm’s holdings on both the long and short side for sale prior to today’s start of trading, according to people familiar with the situation. These reports have been denied by the fund. Martin Shkreli (consider the source), confirms that SA is down 50% MTD and that Goldman is liquidating... Rumors: SALP down more than 50% MTD SALP was up 200% YTD and is now down more than 30% GSCO has liquidated some SALP positions Source: Godel News *want to be clear we wish SALP well and hope all of our clients and non-clients do great. just reporting what we're hearing. https://t.co/zcmVNNCK94 — Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli) July 29, 2026 In around 15 days, the next set of 13Fs will drop and we will discover which dealers have the most TRS exposure on their books. As a reminder, Bill Hwang was sentenced to 18 years in prison... Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 11:30

Feedom Of Navigation By Bas van Geffen, senior market strategist at Rabobank The Houthis are considering charging fees on vessels sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Reuters reported that the plan was discussed with Iran’s leadership, who have offered help to set up an authority to collect the toll. Besides the potential revenue source, the aim of the Bab el-Mandeb fees would reportedly be to normalize the idea of charging fees on international waters. But freedom isn’t fees. President Trump has repeatedly rejected the idea of Iran levying a toll in the Strait of Hormuz, so why would the US president accept such a plan in any other strait? European countries have also vehemently opposed that idea. Moreover, the Houthis indicated that Chinese vessels would be exempted from these fees – creating a clear split in the freedom of navigation for different camps. So, the plan could also be used to put further pressure on the US and its allies. The US has, meanwhile, stepped up its attacks against Iran, in retaliation for the Iranian strikes on its military bases Jordan. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has been briefed on a two-week campaign of air strikes that could impact Iran’s missile capabilities. However, Iran managed to recover relatively quickly after operation Epic Fury. Moreover, according to press reports, China is sending hundreds of rocket launchers to Iran. The shoulder-fired weapons are harder to take out, due to their mobility. And these mobile air defences make any US campaign more difficult and riskier. The potential implications of the weapons sale reach far beyond the Middle East. China’s support for Iran could indicate that Beijing is hoping to use this as a proxy war or a war of attrition against the US – with reports of dwindling weapons stockpiles. Or, at least, to expose the US’s vulnerabilities. At the very least, the arms deal goes against President Xi’s promise to Trump not to supply any weapons to Iran. That, in turn, could perhaps cause the White House to reconsider its own arms deliveries to Taiwan. President Trump paused these deliveries after meeting with Xi in May. The renewed escalation in the Middle East is putting some upward pressure on energy prices again. Brent touched $93 per barrel this morning. Despite the ongoing inflation risks from the Iran war, the Fed refrained from any policy action. However, the Fed’s “family fight” did cause a big split between the central bankers: three FOMC members cast a dissenting vote, favoring a rate hike instead. These dissents clearly demonstrate that support for a rate hike is building. That should keep market speculation of a rate hike alive in the coming weeks. We acknowledge that the risk of a rate hike in the coming months has increased, but we still believe that the Fed is more likely to stay on hold through 2026. The policy statement was largely identical to last month’s, and Chair Warsh talked a lot about the FOMC’s commitment to meeting its 2% inflation target. However, the lack of policy action may have damaged Warsh’ inflation fighting credentials yesterday. Long-term US yields rose after the policy decision: the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high in Asian trading and remains above 5.2%. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 10:45

DeepSeek Pauses Fundraising After Founder's Remarks Leaked Authored by Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times, Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek has paused a second fundraising round after founder Liang Wenfeng’s remarks at a conference circulated online, including a statement that the company could obtain some processors he described as “noncompliant.” Liang made the remarks during a May 20 closed-door investor meeting on why DeepSeek was receiving fewer Huawei processors than China’s major internet companies. The transcript of the meeting was shared online and posted on GitHub on July 22. “For us, we can buy some noncompliant cards,” he said. He did not identify the chips, suppliers, purchasing route, or rules he was referring to. DeepSeek has not publicly confirmed the transcript. Chinese state media National Business Daily reported that institutions involved in investing in the company confirmed that the meeting occurred and the transcript’s content was accurate. Bloomberg reported on July 25 that DeepSeek representatives verbally told some prospective investors they would not be signing agreements in the coming days. Discussions continued, and the company could resume the fundraising process later, they said. DeepSeek was seeking a valuation of about 500 billion yuan ($74 billion) after raising approximately $7.4 billion in its first outside financing round. The pause was driven partly by Liang’s frustration over online reports about his comments to investors, according to Bloomberg. Chip Access Liang described advanced processors as DeepSeek’s most valuable use of capital. He said the company would be willing to turn all available funding into Nvidia chips and pay a premium if enough hardware could be obtained. “The best thing would be to turn all the money into cards,” he said, using an industry term for graphics processing units (GPUs), the processors used to train and run advanced artificial intelligence models. Liang said spending 20 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) on processors during the year would represent an exceptional performance by DeepSeek’s purchasing team. Nvidia B200 processors would be worth buying in any available quantity at a reasonable price, he added. The remarks come as Washington continues to examine how DeepSeek obtained its computing hardware. In April 2025, the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said DeepSeek appeared to use tens of thousands of Nvidia processors that are restricted from export to China. The committee separately asked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for records concerning DeepSeek’s acquisition of export-controlled chips, including communications with customers in China and Southeast Asia. The committee’s findings did not establish that the processors Liang called “noncompliant” were Nvidia products or identify how DeepSeek obtained them. U.S. controls have continued to evolve. In guidance issued on May 31, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security said a license is required to export covered advanced computing items to companies headquartered in China or whose parent companies are based there—even when the immediate recipient is located in another country. Compute Gap DeepSeek drew global attention in January 2025 after releasing lower-cost models that appeared to challenge assumptions about how much computing power companies needed to compete with leading U.S. developers. Investor concern that less expensive models could reduce demand for costly data centers and processors drove Nvidia shares down nearly 17 percent in one trading session, wiping almost $594 billion from the company’s market value. Liang’s private account described limits that DeepSeek’s engineering efficiencies had not eliminated. He said the company possessed computing power equivalent to approximately 20,000 Nvidia H-series processors. Liang did not specify which H-series model he used for the comparison and said much of the equipment had arrived recently or was still awaiting installation. Even if DeepSeek spent 50 billion yuan ($7 billion), it could not train a model at the scale of the largest U.S. systems, he said. Liang estimated that such a training run would require approximately 50,000 Nvidia GB300 processors or 200,000 Huawei Ascend 950 processors. That figure did not include the numerous experiments needed before a final model-training run, he said. He put Chinese developers one to two years behind their U.S. competitors while operating with about a 20th of the computing resources. Chinese companies could outperform U.S. rivals in selected tasks through engineering efficiency, Liang said, but could not achieve broad superiority while the hardware gap remained so large. Hardware is not DeepSeek’s only constraint. Liang said roughly half of the company’s core researchers were working on data annotation—the process of reviewing and correcting material used to refine an artificial intelligence model after its initial training. He said U.S. developers OpenAI and Anthropic had accumulated an advantage in high-quality post-training data that additional funding could not quickly erase. Huawei’s Limits Huawei has become central to Beijing’s effort to reduce China’s dependence on Nvidia and other U.S. semiconductor companies. Liang said Huawei was allocating DeepSeek about 16,000 Ascend 950 processors, while major Chinese internet companies were receiving allocations in the hundreds of thousands. DeepSeek’s allocation would provide computing power equivalent to about 4,000 Nvidia B-series processors, by Liang’s estimate. That would be enough for DeepSeek’s current model generation but not its next one, he said. Liang said four Huawei processors were needed to match the computing capacity of one Nvidia processor. He also estimated that Nvidia hardware could remain economically useful for about five years, compared with no more than three years for Huawei processors. Huawei systems would become more expensive to operate as they aged because of their electricity consumption, he said. Production capacity posed another problem. Huawei could not provide enough processors to satisfy demand from both DeepSeek and China’s major internet companies, according to Liang. He said DeepSeek was purchasing the Huawei processors partly to help Huawei improve its chip and software ecosystem, even though the allocation was too small to train DeepSeek’s next model. DeepSeek was also developing software intended to make its models easier to move among Nvidia, Huawei, and other processors. Nvidia’s Compute Unified Device Architecture, its widely adopted programming platform, has made switching hardware costly because developers have built years of software and expertise around it. Liang also described lower prices as a way for Chinese developers to compete despite their hardware disadvantage. DeepSeek could accept smaller margins than U.S. rivals, he said, while companies trying to operate its publicly released models independently would struggle to match its costs. Before the May meeting opened to investor questions, the moderator said Liang had disclosed sensitive information and instructed participants not to circulate figures—including processor quantities—or share recordings and screenshots outside the meeting. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 10:15

US Grows Only 1.5% In Q2, Badly Missing Estimates, Despite Strong Spending, Investment The US economy grew at a far weaker than expected pace in the second quarter despite a pickup in consumer spending and solid business investment. According to the BEA, GDP (inflation adjusted) rose just 1.5% in the period, according to the first estimate issued Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was well below the 2.0% median estimate.  The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending, investment, and exports that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. A decline in volatile net exports masked strength in underlying demand as imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Consumer spending, which comprises about two-thirds of economic activity, rose at a 3.2% rate. Business investment continued to boom amid a debt-fueled rush to invest in artificial intelligence. A closer look at the underlying data: Business investment remained a key driver of growth in the second quarter. The massive AI investment push continued to play a critical role as did demand for industrial and transportation equipment. After the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, Chairman Kevin Warsh described the economy’s resilience as “impressive” but noted its “most striking” feature is the strength of business investment.  The GDP report showed nonresidential fixed investment rose at an 8.4% pace. Investment in industrial equipment surged by the most since 2011, and outlays for transportation equipment jumped by the most in two years. Information processing equipment and software outlays rose at a strong, albeit slower rate.  Net exports subtracted a percentage point from the calculation of GDP in the second quarter. That likely reflected a mix of factors, including efforts to get goods into the country before a new wave of tariffs and the rapid pace of capital investment.  Inventories stripped an additional 0.67% from GDP, suggesting many businesses drew down their inventories during the war. Federal government outlays declined, reflecting sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to the report. But because sales of the oil are reflected in other components of GDP, there is “no direct effect” on GDP. Even so, spending on national defense increased amid the war with Iran.  Meanwhile, the strength in household outlays was fueled by spending on durable goods like furnishings and motor vehicles. Within services, consumers ramped up outlays on discretionary categories like recreation and food services and accommodation.  Because swings in trade can distort GDP, economists pay close attention to a narrower metric of underlying demand known as final sales to private domestic purchasers that excludes net exports, changes in inventories and government spending. This measure climbed 3.9% in the second quarter, more than double the first quarter pace and the strongest since early 2023. As Bloomberg notes, the latest data highlight an economy that’s so far powering through the fallout of the Iran war, while getting the benefit of a historic credit-fueled spending spree behind AI spending. While the conflict has pushed prices higher and weighed on sentiment, a slide in gasoline costs at the end of the quarter alongside higher-than-usual tax refunds and sales promotions helped support household spending. As reported earlier, more up to date data released on Thursday showed inflation-adjusted consumer spending climbed a robust 0.4% in June, matching the strongest since July 2025. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation - the personal consumption expenditures price index - fell 0.1% last month. Excluding food and energy, the index rose less than forecast.  Looking ahead, Bloomberg notes that the recent flare-up in the Middle East and President Donald Trump’s new tariffs underscore the uncertainty around the outlook. Though the US central bank opted to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, three policymakers voted to raise borrowing costs amid above-target inflation. But with layoffs limited, economists generally expect consumer spending to stabilize in the second half of the year. Executives at companies like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Levi Strauss & Co. have underscored shoppers’ resilience, even as some like PepsiCo Inc. and General Mills Inc. have noted that Americans are growing more discerning in their spending. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 10:00

'Coordinated Cyberattack' Hits More Than 30 Minnesota Water Systems Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times, A “coordinated cyberattack” targeted more than 30 community water systems ‌in Minnesota on July 26 and July 27, the state’s information technology agency said in a statement. Minnesota IT Services (MNIT) stated on July 28 that it activated its incident response capabilities immediately after learning of the attack. MNIT stated that an investigation remains active, and responders continue to “assess affected systems.” “At this time, they are not aware of any active requests from Minnesota cities to have their residents modify their drinking water usage,” the agency stated. John Israel, MNIT assistant commissioner and Minnesota chief information security officer, said such attacks require “a coordinated, whole-of-government response.” “[The agency] is working side by side with our partners to share intelligence, support affected communities, and help utilities restore operations safely while strengthening defenses against future attacks,” he said. Emily Zimmer, a spokesperson for the agency, told Reuters in an email that while the investigation remains ongoing, “the timing, methods of access, and targeted infrastructure share characteristics with other coordinated cyber incidents our federal partners have observed involving critical infrastructure.” Zimmer said the agency could not yet discuss formal attribution or specifics of the incidents. She noted that ‌the agency used the term “attack“ to describe the situation ”because investigators identified unauthorized access with malicious intent directed at these systems.” The FBI said in a statement that it ‌was ⁠aware of the incident and was in contact with the victims “to resolve the matter.” In a June 16 article about safeguarding critical water infrastructure, Microsoft stated that while cyberattacks typically “wreak havoc” on digital systems, at a water utility, a network breach “can move quickly into the physical realm.” “Online systems can give an attacker access to operational technology—physical equipment like pumps, sensors, and chemical treatment systems,” it stated. It stated that local utilities make prime targets because of their size and that most U.S. water utilities are tiny operations. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 97 percent of the nation’s 156,000 public water systems serve fewer than 10,000 customers. While it is not yet clear who is responsible for the attacks, Iranian-linked hackers have, for years, targeted U.S. water systems to varying levels of success. Handala Warning Iran’s state-run Press TV, which the U.S. Treasury has sanctioned for acting as a propaganda arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported on July 23 that the Handala hacking group warned that it will continue targeting U.S. industrial control systems. Handala is one of several public personas used by a hacking unit operating ​under the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) as part of the agency’s psychological ⁠operations, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. An April 7 U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) ​advisory warned that Iranian-affiliated ​hackers were attacking internet-facing ⁠programmable logic controllers, computer devices used to interact with machinery and other critical infrastructure networks, manufactured by Rockwell Automation. The group said on July 23 that attacks targeting programmable logic controllers and supervisory control and data acquisition systems represented only a portion of its capabilities and warned that wider campaigns could target sectors including water, electricity, and transportation networks, Press TV reported. A July 22 update to the advisory expanded the ​scope of the targeting to include devices manufactured by Schneider Electric, Siemens, and ​potentially other manufacturers. CISA stated in its advisory that some hacking activity resembles operations previously attributed to CyberAv3ngers, also known as the Shahid Kaveh Group, which is affiliated with the Cyber Electronic Command of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. CISA acting Director Nick Andersen told The Epoch Times by email: “CISA is aware of multiple potential incidents affecting local water utilities and is coordinating with the EPA and other government and industry partners to understand the scope and provide any information or technical support to help critical infrastructure owners and operators protect their systems.” On June 11, the cybersecurity company Dataminr issued an alert about Handala, stating that the hacking group had claimed to have compromised California Water Service (Cal Water), one of the largest investor-owned water utilities in the United States, serving approximately 2 million customers across 100 California communities. The hackers published 5 gigabytes of data. “CISA’s ⁠updated reporting shows a worrying expansion in Iran-linked critical infrastructure targeting focused on the United States,” Joe Slowik, director of threat research and cyber engineering at Dataminr, said in a July 27 blog post on the company’s ⁠website. CyberAv3ngers struck a small water utility in Aliquippa, Pa., in November 2023, gaining control of a device at the Municipal Water Authority, according to a 2025 report by the Maryland Cybersecurity Council. Cyberattacks on Water Systems According to Xylem, a global water technology provider, there’s “no lack of examples” of cyberattacks involving water systems. In October 2024, New Jersey-based American Water, the largest regulated water and wastewater utility company in the United States, which serves more than 14 million people in 14 states and on 18 military installations, had to shut down computer systems due to a cyberattack. In January 2024, the Russian hacktivist group Cyber Army of Russia Reborn claimed responsibility for attacks on water facilities in the United States and Poland. In Muleshoe, Texas, one breach resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of gallons of water. Authorities have assessed that a Chinese Communist Party state-sponsored cyber group known as Volt Typhoon is seeking to pre-position itself on IT networks for disruptive or destructive cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure. In a 2024 statement, CISA said that Volt Typhoon uses hacking techniques that avoid installing malware, which can be relatively easily detected, and instead rely on built-in tools that are harder to spot. This means that they exploit weak admin passwords, factory-default logins, and unpatched internet-connected devices In a January report from the Congressional Research Service, Chris Jaikaran, a specialist in cybersecurity policy, said that the U.S. Intelligence Community assesses that China is “the most active and persistent cyber threat” to U.S. institutions. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 09:10

US Savings Rate Tumbles Despite Lowest Jobless Claims Data In 57 Years The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits remained near its lowest levels since 1969 last week at just 197k (below the 200k exp)... Continuing jobless claims are also falling back to cyclical lows... Additionally, both income and spending are also trending higher... But overall, the savings rate is tumbling... So, the 'low hire, no fire' economy leaves Americans still spending but higher prices are forcing savings to be drawn down to maintain quality of life. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 08:49

IRGC Strikes Jordan Again After 2-Hour US Bombardment Kills Iranian Troops, Civilians - Hormuz Traffic Creeps Higher In the wake of the overnight fresh round of US airstrikes on Iran, which resulted in destruction and casualties especially along coastal areas, Iran's military has retaliated once again especially on Jordan. US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it completed a "heavy" wave of strikes on the Islamic Republic, in response to "attempted missile attacks" on American bases in the region earlier this week. This US wave lasted two hours, the Pentagon said, striking "military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense sites, and maritime capabilities".  via Iran state media It accused Iran of a "surprise attack" the prior night, Tuesday, but said that "all Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted." As a result of the US bombing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRTC) said three of its troops were killed in a missile attack, according to semi-official Tasnim. The three IRGC members died while "defending Iran’s borders and people" in what it described as a "brutal attack by the criminal terrorist regime of the United States." Iranian officials are also saying that US bombardment of Qeshm island has killed a family. In Qeshm island, the Director General of Crisis Management of the Hormozgan Governorate said search and rescue efforts are underway amid mounting casualties there. "So far, two children have been pulled out from under the rubble and transferred to medical centers, and efforts are ongoing to rescue three other members of this family," Mehrdad Hassanzadeh said.  Iran launched ballistic missiles at Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in response to US strikes, but Jordan says it intercepted all five missiles. pic.twitter.com/25MxHgn1LR — Clash Report (@clashreport) July 30, 2026 In response Iran says it has again targeted a US airbase in Jordan, and claims to have taken out three F-35 stealth fighters, though there's been no indication of this from the Pentagon side. According to details via Al Jazeera: In a statement directed to Jordan, the IRGC says in response to a US attack on Qeshm island that killed two parents and their child, aerospace fighters targeted a ramp and maintenance shed at the al-Azraq airbase, which hosts US F-35 fighter jets, with several ballistic missiles, state news agency Fars reports. The IRGC said that it had completely destroyed three F-35 aircraft and caused “heavy damage” to three others. The IRGC stated that "A number of enemy officers and technical and maintenance personnel were also killed in this attack. Our region is no place for the infanticidal army that cruelly slaughters innocent families in the middle of the night while they sleep." They added that the war will continue until "the last American occupier is expelled from the Islamic lands" and that Muslims in Jordan and the region want this too. Aftermath of US attack on a residential area of Iran's Qeshm Island: Footage shows aftermath of a US missile strike on civilian residences in Qeshm. As a result of the US attack on homes in Qeshm's Chah-Tangu, three members of the family were killed, while two of their children sustained injuries and were taken to a hospital for ongoing care. pic.twitter.com/43vjC6qjw5 — IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) July 30, 2026 Despite the new fighting, shipping data surprisingly suggests an uptick in transit in the Strait of Hormuz. "Shipping across the crucial Strait of Hormuz has picked up in recent days despite a continuation of hostilities in the Middle East, with the US claiming its navy escorted some tankers across the waterway," Bloomberg writes. But this still constitutes a tiny trickle compared to pre-war normal times: The Al Areesh openly exited the Persian Gulf early Thursday carrying a liquefied natural gas cargo from Qatar, the country's first shipment in three weeks, while the liquefied petroleum gas carrier CYH Yongchun appeared to transit the strait with its transponder off, according to ship-tracking data. Fourteen commodity vessels crossed Hormuz in both directions on Wednesday, data from market intelligence firm Kpler shows, up from single digits last week. The figures may still be revised with new information. A crude supertanker has also been provisionally booked at nearly $500,000 per day to collect a cargo at an unnamed Persian Gulf port next week for delivery to China. Simultaneously the Bab El Mandeb strait is getting choked off to Saudi shipping and is being squeezed by Yemen's Houthis. Per a Bloomberg note, the British marine insurance market has widened the area in the Red Sea it deems as high risk in the wake of new Houthi targeting of foreign vessels. Iran may be responsibility for Wednesday's unprecedented alleged (and still subject to contradictory reporting) drone attack on a tanker docked at Egyptian port: Two Iranian sources said the drone strike on the U.S.-owned LNG vessel in Egypt was intended to demonstrate that Iran could disrupt global shipping and energy supplies more broadly if it chose to escalate. Source: NYT pic.twitter.com/UWWyK6oCkH — Clash Report (@clashreport) July 30, 2026 However... NYT didn't even say they are Iranian "source". Just two Iranian "individuals", whom NYT thinks their statements are important to manufacure a narrative. pic.twitter.com/F1kqJ15yzl — Monjed Al-Tarifi منجد الطريفي (Uncivilized) (@MonjedTarifi) July 30, 2026 The Lloyd's Market Association expanded the areas where underwriters can charge war risk premiums after a meeting earlier this week. Per Bloomberg: Listed area in the Red Sea increased to 25.5 degrees north, but doesn’t include Egyptian territorial waters. That would, however, include Saudi Arabia’s port of Yanbu, which has been a vital lifeline for the kingdom’s oil exports “The decision today to amend those Listed Areas reflects the recent escalation by the Houthis and their attacks on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea,” said Neil Roberts, Head of Marine and Aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association President Trump is said to be 'exasperated' by the situation and frustrated at his advisors' inability to agree on war strategy, meanwhile. BREAKING: Trump exploded and lost his temper during a security meeting, shouting and cursing out of frustration over the military options presented to him and the lack of progress toward a deal with Iran, per NBC News. A US official adds "after all this time, there is no unity"… — The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) July 30, 2026 NBC on Thursday cites that "The president is exasperated" citing a Trump ally. "I don’t think he believed it was going to be this difficult to get the Iranians to agree to a deal.” The source added "there was not a real strategy for how long or what they should do to get to the endpoint." Reported new Iran strikes on Kuwait as well on Thursday... Video shows the aftermath of missile strikes from US forces in Kuwait on targets in Abadan, Iran, with fires burning following the attacks tonight. pic.twitter.com/eFAu0iqamV — Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) July 30, 2026 As a reminder, University of Chicago political scientist and foreign policy realist author Robert Pape that the war will stumble along and likely expand even through the midterms: "The victory rhetoric [from Trump] doesn't match escalation reality," he said. "It is out of sync." Then he emphasized: "I think it will actually be after the midterms," he said. "Between now and January, this is not going to be over." Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 08:35

Futures Rise As Oil Drops, Bond Selling Slows, Meta Tumbles And Microsoft Soars Futures rebound (for now) following yesterday’s Fed-induced meltdown as the market is clearly questioning Warsh’s credibility and potential usage of non-standard tools to fight inflation, pushing the yield curve to twist steeper and sending 30Y yields to 2 decade highs (last at 5.22%). Pre-mkt, the yield curve is seeing further twist-steepening with 10s and 30s up 1 and 3bp with 2s down 1bp. USD deterioration continues following its worst day in 4 weeks. Commodities are so confused, they are not even responding to the latest MidEast escalation with Energy and Metals lower while Ags remain bid. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.6% higher and Nasdaq futs gain 1.3% led by a 9% jump in Microsoft whose cloud unit grew at the fastest clip in four years and the company held the line on spending; while Meta slumps after disappointing revenue guidance failed to offset another capex projection increase. Semis are higher, Memory are lower, and Mag7 is mixed but net higher (MSFT +8.4%, META -8.3%). Cyclicals are leading Defensives with AI boosting both Industrials and Utilities. While the Global MegaCap earnings releases may not have revived their names, price action suggests a bottom is forming, a view espoused (daily) by JPM which sees the deleveraging as completed (narrator: it is far from completed). Bulls will want to see this pre-mkt behavior extend into the weekend to build confidence while Bears will bank on further bond vol and Semis de-risking to maintain the status quo. US economic data calendar includes June personal income/spending and PCE price index, weekly jobless claims and 2Q advance GDP (8:30am); no Fed speakers are scheduled. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher with the exception of Meta Platforms which slides 8% after the Facebook parent gave a revenue outlook that is seen as disappointing. The company also raised the low end of its full-year forecasts for both capital expenditures and total expenses, adding to concerns about when spending on AI will translate into better growth. On the other end, Microsoft jumps 9% after the software company’s cloud unit grew at the fastest clip in four years and the pace is accelerating, suggesting the company’s AI and computing services are making inroads with customers. Others are mostly higher (Amazon +3%, Nvidia +1.7%, Tesla +1.6%, Alphabet +0.2, Apple -0.6%) Altria (MO) slips 3% after weakness in the tobacco company’s oral segment pressured earnings. The midpoint of its tweaked annual adjusted EPS forecast is also below the consensus estimate, with a boost in its capex expectations. Carvana (CVNA) falls 9% after the company said full-year earnings may fall short of Wall Street’s expectations as the used-car retailer’s rapid growth slowed and per-car profit slipped in the most recent quarter. Chipotle (CMG) rises 6% after the restaurant chain reported comparable sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also boosted its annual guidance after bringing back its popular honey chicken. Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) jumps 19% after the drugmaker boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, following better than expected sales in the second quarter. Analysts note a strong launch for the recently approved drug for ovarian cancer, Lifyorli. Crocs (CROX) slumps 10% after a soft outlook for earnings this quarter overshadowed the company posting solid results and raising its annual forecast. Fair Isaac (FICO) falls 9% after the company’s improved revenue guidance for the full year fell short of the average analyst estimate. FormFactor (FORM) gains 16% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as positive. Gross margin was singled out as strong in the quarter. Fortinet (FTNT) jumps 10% after the cybersecurity company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also boosted its full-year revenue outlook. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) slides 12% after the company reported second-quarter results, with adjusted Ebitda and earnings per share that fell short of analyst estimates. Lam Research (LRCX) is up 8% after the semiconductor capital equipment company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. It also gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is above the consensus estimate. Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) falls 7% after the company cut its annual forecasts and said bookings for the next 12 months are weak. Nscale (NBIS) gains 6% after agreeing to acquire software startup Anyscale to help customers use AI computing power more efficiently. Porch Group (PRCH) soars 21% after the home-services software company reported second-quarter revenue that was stronger than expected on key metrics. The company also boosted its full-year revenue forecast. Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) is down 5% after the largest maker of smartphone processors gave a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, signaling that component shortages and rising costs are taking a toll on its main market. Quanta Services (PWR) rises 13% after the infrastructure-services company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year to a range above the average analyst estimate. Regeneron (REGN) gains 3% after the drugmaker posted revenue and adjusted profit for the second quarter that was ahead of Starbucks (SBUX) rises 6% after the coffee-chain operator boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the company same-store sales and Bloomberg Intelligence flags menu innovations. Stellantis (STLA) is down 3% after the carmaker’s second-quarter results disappointed analysts, who noted the lack of meaningful progress in the company’s turnaround plans. Teladoc (TDOC) tumbles 17% after the virtual health-care provider cut its revenue guidance for the full year, citing pressures in itsBetterHelp business. Citi calls it “another tough quarter” for Teladoc. In other corporate news The Pentagon awarded General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls contracts worth as much as $76.6 billion to expand construction of the US’s top nuclear submarines and make shipyard infrastructure improvements. Johnson & Johnson has entered a binding agreement with Sail Biomedicines, granting J&J an exclusive option to acquire Sail for $2.58 billion, alongside an initial $785 million payment package. OpenAI’s ChatGPT and video game company Roblox will be subject to stricter scrutiny and monitoring requirements under the European Union’s content moderation rules after surpassing a threshold of 45 million monthly users in the bloc. Another day of heavy global earnings and key economic data will test traders already navigating market gyrations and diverging performances in Big Tech, following another puzzling Fed announcement. In early trading, hyperscalers are seeing contrasting fortunes, with Microsoft rallying after earnings suggested that its AI investments are starting to generate returns. Azure cloud revenue grew a better-than-expected 43% year-on-year, while its capital expenditures were lower than expected.  On the flip side, Meta Platforms fell as it gave a disappointing quarterly revenue forecast and reported the lowest free cash flow in years — a sign of ballooning expenses for AI bets.  While Microsoft’s results were well received, Meta Platforms Inc. dropped 9.8% after a disappointing revenue forecast. Markets will get another look at the health of Big Tech when Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. report after the close. “We’ve seen the hyperscalers that have been wanting to spend more, without backing up with profits, getting penalized,” said Rory McPherson at Magnus Financial Discretionary Management. “But then you have Microsoft, which isn’t spending any more than it forecast and is growing its cloud business. That’ll remain key, particularly for Amazon.” The SOX ETF tracking the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 3.2%, signaling a selloff totaling 16% over five days may have found a floor. “The earnings season is broadly good for US tech, but there’s clearly a rotation ongoing from chips to hyperscalers,” said Claudia Panseri, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management in France. “Semiconductor stocks, even if they beat expectations, rarely manage to rise.” After split outcomes by MSFT and META, investors will remain focused on the tech sector as two more heavyweights — Apple and Amazon — report after the close. For Apple, the key question is whether the anti-capex AI trade has further to run. For Amazon, investors will be watching both capital spending and AWS, which is expected to report 31% revenue growth. Elsewhere in tech, Qualcomm and Arm Holdings cautioned on the smartphone market. Qualcomm, the largest maker of smartphone processors, gave a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, signaling that component shortages and rising costs are taking a toll on its main market. Arm shares are lower in premarket after the company pointed to sluggishness in the smartphone industry.  Apollo’s Torsten Slok said the Fed’s abandonment of forward guidance is fueling historic bond market volatility, sending Treasury yields swinging “up and down like a yo-yo.” Bloomberg’s John Authers describes the set-up into the Fed meeting as a non-event, “yet a non-event it was not.” Markets rewarded him with the sharpest steepening of the yield curve in a year, and a late selloff for stocks that brought the Nasdaq 100 more than 10% below its peak. “Explaining quite what happened and why is tricky, ” observes Authers, failing to explain it. Money markets are fully pricing in a Fed rate hike only by December. Katharine Neiss, chief European economist at PGIM, warned officials may be left with little choice but to begin raising rates earlier. “That hawkish tilt is going to come in September, with three sequential hikes,” Neiss told Bloomberg TV. “Clearly there is a big risk here, because its got a whiff of discretionary monetary policy which we know doesn’t work. The markets could bully him into perhaps even a 50 basis-point hike.” In the UK, the Bank of England held its key rate at 3.75%, with three out of nine policymakers voting for a quarter-point hike. While the decision was widely expected, markets dialed down their expectations for a raise in September. Two-year gilt yields fell eight basis points as short-dated bonds rallied. European stocks also advance, with lower oil prices and stronger-than-expected euro-area GDP both providing tailwinds.The Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 647.62 as investors parse a mixed bag of corporate earnings, with Schneider Electric rising on a better outlook while Adidas sinks after disappointing profit. Construction and chemicals are the best performing sectors while health care and financial services fall the most.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday: L’Oreal shares rise as much as 4.6% after the beauty company reported second-quarter like-for-like revenue that beat consensus estimates. Air France-KLM gains as much as 3.3% after the company reported its latest earnings, which analysts describe as a strong beat thanks to high fuel recapture rates as well as strong performance for its Cargo division. Symrise gains 6.7% after the German chemical manufacturer reaffirmed its organic sales forecast for the full year. DSM-Firmenich shares rise as much as 12% after the company reported second-quarter organic sales growth ahead of consensus, with a beat across all divisions. Schneider Electric gains as much as 7.5% after a second-quarter beat and raised guidance was welcomed by analysts, who say the report is a strong print from the French electrification and automation group, particularly for its data-center offerings, while also noting particular strength in China. Campari shares rise as much as 8% after the Italian spirits maker’s first-half profit and sales surpassed estimates. Adidas shares fall as much as 18%, their biggest intraday drop on record, after the German sportswear maker posted weak profits for the second quarter amid a jump in marketing-related spending for the FIFA World Cup. Stellantis shares fall as much as 8.9% in Milan after the carmaker’s second-quarter results disappointed analysts, who noted the lack of meaningful progress in the company’s turnaround plans. Airbus drops as much as 3% despite delivering a beat on profit and revenue for the second quarter. However, the airplane manufacturer didn’t raise its full-year forecast for either metric. Rentokil shares plunge as much as 19% after the pest control company warned of weakening lead flow in North America’s residential markets toward the end of the second quarter and into July. UCB falls as much as 10% after the Belgian drugmaker reported disappointing sales for its key growth drug Bimzelx. While sales were in line, analysts say the market expected more, and attribute today’s beat to the company’s legacy products, such as Briviact. Asian stocks fell amid an extremely volatile session on Thursday as investors parsed a mixed set of Big Tech results, monetary policy signals and geopolitical tensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3%, heading for a third day of declines. South Korea’s SK Hynix was once again among the biggest drags as its shares slumped more than 5%. Peer Samsung Electronics also finished lower, giving up gains seen earlier after the chipmaker reported a more than 250-fold jump in profit. The Kospi closed lower for a third day though losses eased from the previous two days (there was no third consecutive market wide halt) as investors digested new government measures to stabilize the market. Chinese tech stocks slumped, led by high-flying semiconductor names, as concerns over stretched valuations and crowded positioning intensified a rotation out of some of this year’s best-performing sectors. China’s market showed little response to the readout from the Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo meeting, which was released just about 30 minutes before the close of trading. The nation’s top officials struck a more supportive tone on the economy but stopped short of announcing fresh stimulus at the key meeting. In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The kiwi is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.5% against the greenback. The pound adds a couple of pips ahead of the BOE decision. Precious metals are little changed. Bitcoin rises 1.5%. In rates, treasuries extend the curve-steepening shift sparked by Wednesday’s Fed decision in early US session, pushing 2s10s and 5s30s spreads back toward weekly highs as investors continue to digest the central bank’s strategy to rein in inflation. Treasury yields are richer by around 2bp across front-end of the curve and cheaper by 2bp in the long-end, with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 2.7bp and 3.3bp on the day.  10-year is little changed vs. Wednesday’s close near 4.69% while the 30Y rises as high as 5.24% before reversing; gilts outperform by around 3bp in the sector after the BOE kept rates on hold in a 6-3 decision. Thursday’s session brings June personal income and spending data with PCE price indexes, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, as a next step to evaluate the outlook for inflation. Gilts outperform after Bank of England left policy unchanged in a 6-3 split vote. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, follows a light issuance calendar on Wednesday due to the Fed rate decision. European bond curves follow suit with UK and German 2-year borrowing costs falling 5 bps and 2 bps, respectively. In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are slightly lower on the day, unwinding an early bid after the US conducted a fresh wave of strikes on Iranian military targets. Brent crude futures for October fall 0.4% to around $87.70. US economic data calendar includes June personal income/spending and PCE price index, weekly jobless claims and 2Q advance GDP (8:30am); no Fed speakers are scheduled. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News As Trump moves to strike back after Iran’s surprise missile attack Tuesday, the president will decide how far to go. He could greenlight the option of 10 to 14 days of intensive airstrikes intended to cripple Iran’s missile capability despite warnings that the U.S. is running low on air-defensive munitions. Or, he could opt for a more limited military strike in the hopes diplomacy could be pursued. WSJ A drone strike on gas vessels in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta signaled a potential new front ‌in the U.S.-Iran war, raising the prospect of threats to navigation through the Suez Canal, a last remaining safe export route for Saudi oil. RTRS Longer-maturity Treasuries extended declines as investors grew increasingly concerned the Fed’s Kevin Warsh won’t rein in inflation. Some investors are shifting toward bonds in Australia and Europe. BBG China’s top leaders signaled little appetite for major stimulus in the second half of the year, with the world’s second-largest economy still on track to meet a reduced annual growth target despite mounting domestic headwinds. WSJ The euro-area economy unexpectedly rose 0.4% in the second quarter, its strongest in more than a year. Germany, France, Italy and Spain all recorded growth. BBG GDP figures due today are expected to show second-quarter growth broadly matching the previous three months, with consumer spending strengthening. BBG The Bank of England kept interest rates steady at 3.75%, as UK officials sought to balance the threat from resurgent US-Iran tensions against signs that domestic price pressures are easing more quickly than predicted. BBG The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow as it assesses the impact of last month’s hike to 1%, the highest in 31 years. BBG A Russian missile probably crashed in Poland overnight, PM Donald Tusk said. Poland’s air defense radar had seen several rockets over western Ukraine, while Russia said it had carried out a mass strike in the region. BBG The hyperscalers are seeing contrasting fortunes, with Microsoft rallying after earnings suggested that its AI investments are starting to generate returns. Azure cloud revenue grew a better-than-expected 43% year-on-year, while its capital expenditures were lower than expected.  On the flip side, Meta Platforms fell as it gave a disappointing quarterly revenue forecast and reported the lowest free cash flow in years — a sign of ballooning expenses for AI bets. BBG US Senator Cotton (R) urged the US government to ban federal agencies and contractors from using Chinese AI models in a letter sent this week to Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Semafor  US Senators Thune (R), Cruz (R) and Klobuchar (D) were close to proposing a bill to deal with the risks of advanced AI, though disagreements with Anthropic put the agreement on hold: Punchbowl. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were mostly lower in somewhat mixed trade as participants reflected on the FOMC and mega-cap earnings, while geopolitics was also in focus after the US conducted retaliatory strikes on Iran. ASX 200 traded lower with gold miners and the consumer sectors leading the declines, although downside was stemmed by resilience in tech, Nikkei 225 was positive with tech stocks front-running the advances in the index, while participants also look ahead to the BoJ, which began its two-day conclave and is expected to pause after hiking rates at the last meeting. KOSPI swung between gains and losses despite early momentum driven by Samsung Electronics earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with Hong Kong range-bound after the HKMA kept rates unchanged in lockstep with the Fed, while the mainland was pressured amid ongoing US-China frictions, with MOFCOM criticising the US robot ban and threatening to retaliate if the US insists on acting unilaterally. Top Asian news Japanese PM Takaichi said the plan to cut the food sales tax to 1% will be from April 2027 and be effective for 2 years. They aim to get approval by early August. Further comments by Japanese PM Takaichi, stating that she will keep market trust by not resorting to debt issuance to fund temporary tax cuts. European bourses trade entirely in the green following a busy morning of earnings (see more below) and constructive rhetoric by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry. Al Jazeera reported comments by the spokesperson stating that discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation; however, Al Arabiya added that there have been no tangible results. On the data front, flash GDP figures across the EZ came in broadly stronger than expected (outside of France); however, Spanish inflation came in hotter than expected, with German state CPIs also rising Y/Y. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Construction tops the pile, with Chemicals and Basic Resources rounding out the sector outperformers. Health Care, Financial Services and Telecoms are the only sectors in the red. A typical busy Thursday of earnings, with L'Oreal, Adidas and Stellantis in focus. L'Oreal LFL sales beat estimates, and it announced a 50-year exclusive deal with Kering. Adidas Q2 operating profit missed estimates while its H1 gross margin ticked lower. The Co. highlighted higher US tariffs and unfavourable currency developments as key reasons for the softer figures. In other news, Adidas' Board appointed a new CFO. Finally, for Stellantis, its H1 adj. operating profit missed estimates while analysts at Bernstein also highlighted that margins for both Europe and North America missed. Top European news   G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck. Antipodeans outperform, European EMs benefit from softer TTF and other majors are quiet. USD is firmer against most G10 peers and resides in a 100.77-101.07 range as it attempts to claw back some FOMC-induced losses from Wednesday. To recap, the treasury curve steepened aggressively, and USD saw broad weakness as markets unwound a c. 33% probability of tightening. The driver today will likely be the PCE and GDP metrics due at 13:30 BST, alongside the familiar geopolitics (which will likely have less of an impact today). Support is below at 100.50 (alongside the 50DMA). EUR/USD is a touch weaker, but off worst levels as the dust settles post-FOMC; the pair currently residing at the top of yesterday's range around 1.1450. German prelim GDP was released alongside State CPIs, the latter which indicates the mainland figure will likely be in line with expectations. German GDP surpassed expectations, before the EZ figure also printed firmer. EUR saw a modest bounce on the German data points, sufficient to lift the pair above 1.1450. EUR will likely be dictated by the Buck once again this afternoon, into tier-1 US data (see above). Levels include the 21DMA below @1.1418, and the 50DMA above at 1.1483. Focus for GBP today on the BoE meeting and MPR. The bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, justified as the BoE retains policy space and neither the energy or second-round effect criteria are met beyond scenario A. A 7-2 vote split is the consensus, though there is a possibility Mann could also join the hawks. Into the meeting, markets imply just 2bps, or an 8% probability of tightening. Should the hawkish risks materialise, Cable could push towards 21-DMA at 1.3380. Antipodeans are the clear outperformers against the Buck, with encouraging Australian Building Approvals and New Zealand Business Confidence likely giving a hand. Kiwi is the outperformer after finding a bid above 0.58, while Aussie fails to benefit to the same extent, but remains supported at 0.6950. FIXED INCOME Fixed income is lower across the board as the space focuses on Chair Warsh over the statement itself, though the complex is off worst amid a Pakistan-driven pullback in energy benchmarks. USTs reached a 108-06 low this morning, but remains clear of 108-01 and 108-00+ from last week; the latter is also the contract low, for reference. Amidst this, the 10yr yield has been up to 4.71%, near-enough matching the YTD peak from last week. A move that is more pronounced the further out the curve you go, with steepening still very much in play, evidenced by the 30yr yield hitting a YTD peak on Wednesday, and eclipsing it this morning at 5.24%, now looking to 2007’s 5.39% high. The 2yr retreated following Warsh, despite knee-jerking higher on the Fed holding, and has since remained around the mid-point of Wednesday’s 4.21-4.39% band. Heading into the Fed, around a 30% chance of a hike was implied. Now looking to September’s meeting, which will come a few weeks after the Jackson Hole Symposium, the odds of a 25bps hike have increased from around a 55% implied probability to c. 57%, though the main move has been a paring of the odds of it target rate being at 4.00-4.25% (i.e. a July and September hike) to just 1% vs 20% pre-July’s hold; in-fitting with the pullback in short-term rates and curve steepening. Finally, the odds of a September hold now stand at 41% from 24%, as the mentioned 4.00-4.25% pricing reallocates. Bunds softer, down by 30 ticks as it stands but around 20 ticks clear of the 124.30 base. Broadly, following USTs lower before then finding respite as energy pulled back on the morning’s updates (see Commodities). No move to the morning’s data, with the regional German CPIs in-line with consensus for an uptick in the 13:00BST mainland print, while Q2’s 1st GDP print surpassed expectations at 0.2% Q/Q, benefitting from exports and seemingly indicative of other nations getting hit harder than Germany. Thereafter, the EZ-wide 1st read also surpassed consensus, though once again Ireland may be distorting it. Gilts in-fitting with the above, are lower by 25 ticks and the same amount clear of the 86.31 trough. Attention today on the BoE, where a hold is expected but the risks are hawkish, and this may be reflected in the number of dissenters ticking up, with Mann the one to watch; full Newsquawk preview available. JGBs, briefly, were in-fitting overnight, though with additional pressure seen after a soft 2yr tap and as participants now look to the Friday policy announcement. Italy sells EUR 6.0bln vs. exp EUR 4.75-6.0bln 3.15% 2031, 3.80% 2036, and 1.45% 2036 BTP. Japan sells JPY 2.13tln 2-year JGBs b/c 3.63 (prev. 4.82), average yield 1.483% (prev. 1.407%). COMMODITIES In US-Iran geopolitics, US CENTCOM announced that its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to the previous day’s attempted missile attacks on US forces. The strikes hit dozens of IRGC targets in Iran, including military command centres, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defence sites, and maritime capabilities. According to the WSJ, CENTCOM Commander Cooper proposed a two-week plan to escalate strikes in Iran. Arab sources reported that explosions were heard in Jordan, according to Nour News. It was later reported that Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran and that there were no casualties, according to local media. Meanwhile, this morning, a Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation. Al Arabiya sources later suggested that no tangible results are yet seen in halting the escalation. On the flip side, Iran’s IRGC said it will “punish aggressors today” following recent attacks. Elsewhere, it is worth keeping the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the radar, as heavy explosions were reported in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and in other areas, including Lviv, as Russia launched ballistic missiles. Poland also scrambled fighter jets amid Russian airstrikes on Ukraine. Polish PM Tusk said a missile fell inside Poland in an uninhabited area; it appears to be a Russian missile, but this is not 100% certain. WTI Sep’26 and Brent Oct’26 futures are on a firmer footing as geopolitics escalate, but gains are capped by ongoing mediation and diplomacy efforts. WTI resides in a current USD 83.21-85.94/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 86.70-89.50/bbl range at the time of writing, with both contracts towards the top end of the parameters. Dutch TTF meanwhile is softer and back under the EUR 60/MWh mark for the front-month contract, which found early support near EUR 59/MWh. No clear reason for the dichotomy between gas and oil, although a Qatari ship carrying LNG passed the Strait of Hormuz with Iran's permission. Metals are mixed, choppy, and within recent ranges. Precious metals spiked on the FOMC yesterday before waning overnight as the Dollar recovered against the backdrop of escalating geopolitics. The yellow metal trades within a relatively narrow USD 4,028-4,100/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s USD 3,996.05-4,116.42/oz. Spot silver resides in a USD 56.93-58.65/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s 56.74-59.26/oz range. Base metals are on a firmer footing despite the firmer oil prices and escalating geopolitics, but possibly amid the Chinese Politburo meeting, which said the nation is to boost domestic demand and stabilise the property market. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 13,636.00-13,752.83/t range at the time of writing. US oil firms trying to get into Venezuela are reportedly facing difficulties, WSJ reported citing sources. Caspian Pipeline Consortium reported drone attacks on two more tankers near its Black Sea terminal. Oil loading at the terminal has been suspended, and the pipeline facilities are operating normally, Kommersant reported. Shipping data showed that tankers which were intending to load at the CPC terminal are departing the Black Sea,according to sources. Jordan is looking to acquire Egypt's stake in the Fajr gas pipeline, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES EU launched AI Gigafactories call to establish up to seven AI Gigafactories across Europe, unlocking more than EUR 30bln in investments. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%). EU GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%). German GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%). German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%). Italian GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%). Italian GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q2) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%). French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%). French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q2) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%). Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%). Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.7%). Spanish Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.2%); Core 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%). Spanish HICP (Jul) Y/Y 3.8% vs Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%); M/M -0.1% vs Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%). Spanish Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jul) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%). CENTRAL BANKS RBA's Hunter said she won't speculate on the August policy meeting, adding that Q2 inflation was slightly softer than expected. Geopolitics: Middle East US President Trump said that we've hit Iran very hard and we'll finish off Iran pretty soon. US CENTCOM announced its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran, in response to the prior day's attempted missile attacks on US forces, while they struck dozens of Islamic IRGC targets in Iran, including military command centres, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defence sites, and maritime capabilities. US CENTCOM commander Cooper proposed a 2-week plan to escalate strikes in Iran, according to WSJ. US source said the overnight strike was extensive and had a significant impact, while it was about twice as large in intensity and scope as previous operations, according to i24's Stein. Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation, Al Jazeera reported. Additionally, Al Arabiya reported, citing sources, that tangible results have not yet yielded results. Iran's IRGC said they will "punish aggressors today" following recent attacks. Arab sources reported that explosions were heard in Jordan, according to Nour News. It was later reported that Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran and said there were no casualties, according to local media. A US-owned and operated, Marshall Islands-flagged LNG floating storage facility was struck by at least one UAV while at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta, according to Ambrey. The Egyptian Cabinet later noted that an initial investigation found that the fires on two vessels at the Damietta port was caused by a drone and that no party has claimed responsibility for the attack. Riyadh Airport suspended activities after reports of two explosions heard in Saudi Arabia's capital. Saudi Arabia is seeking to build an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks, according to reports, citing sources. Talks are progressing for Hamas to declare disarmament, sources say. The sources added that talks are also underway to hold a signing ceremony for the understandings in Egypt in the coming days. Israel reportedly conducted an airstrike on Gaza City, according to Al Araby. Geopolitics: Ukraine Heavy explosions were reported in Ukraine's capital of Kyiv and in other areas including Lviv as Russia launched ballistic missiles, while Poland scrambled fighter jets amid Russian airstrikes on Ukraine. Russian press noted a drone attack on Taman port in Russia's Krasnodar region. Additionally, sources reported that the Ukrainian drone attack struck a grain export terminal at Russia's Taman Port, causing significant damage. Polish PM Tusk said a missile fell inside Poland in an uninhabited area and that it appears to be a Russian missile but not 100% certain. This came following earlier sirens in cities across eastern Poland after possible reports of Russian cruise missiles having crossed into Polish airspace. US Event calendar 8:30 am: Jun Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.68% 8:30 am: Jun Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.71% 8:30 am: Jun PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 4.07% 8:30 am: Jun Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3% 8:30 am: Jun Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.41% 8:30 am: Jul 25 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200k, prior 187k 8:30 am: Jul 18 Continuing Claims, est. 1795k, prior 1796k 8:30 am: 2Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2%, prior 2.1% 8:30 am: Q A Personal Consumption, est. 2.3%, prior 0.5% 8:30 am: 2Q A GDP Price Index, est. 4%, prior 3.6% 8:30 am: 2Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.5%, prior 4.4% DB's Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap Last night’s on-hold Fed decision combined with a relative lack of detail from Chair Warsh triggered a sharp steepening in the Treasury curve, with the 30yr yield (+11.2bps) reaching a post-2007 high of 5.20% while a late sell-off left the S&P 500 (-1.52%) posting its worst day in seven weeks. Market sentiment also wasn’t helped by a new rise in oil, with Brent crude spiking +7.91% yesterday amid renewed escalation between the US and Iran, as well as a -5.33% fall in the Philly semiconductor index. Strong results from Microsoft have improved the mood a bit with NASDAQ 100 futures +0.57% higher overnight after the index fell into correction territory yesterday, but Asian markets are mixed this morning. Starting with the Fed decision, as largely expected the FOMC kept fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75%, though there were three hawkish dissents in favour of a 25bps hike from regional Fed presidents Hammack, Kashkari and Logan. There were no substantive changes to the policy statement and, consistent with his recent stance, Fed Chair Warsh once again avoided forward guidance. Warsh reiterated a commitment to get inflation under control but offered little colour on the details of the FOMC discussion. This might make the Fed minutes release on August 19 more of a market-moving event. The Chair also insisted that the discussion “was the furthest thing from inertia imaginable” despite the on-hold decision. And there were a few hints that rate hikes were still on the horizon, with Warsh noting that despite the 9-3 vote, there was “a lot of agreement on the hard questions” and mentioning "all of the action we're going to have between September and December”. With a hike having been more than 30% priced for yesterday’s meeting, the on-hold decision triggered dovish Fed repricing, which solidified during Warsh’s press conference. By the close, fed funds futures priced 16bps of tightening by the September meeting, down from 25bps the day before. And 33bps of hikes were priced by year-end (-8.4bps on the day). The Treasury curve steepened sharply in response. The rates-sensitive 2yr yield fell -1.4bps, but the 10yr yield rose by +7.2bps and the 30yr yield (+11.2bps) reached a post-2007 high of 5.20%. This marked the sharpest steepening in the 2s30s slope in almost a year. And the Treasury sell-off has extended overnight, with 10yr yields up +2.6bps to 4.70% as I type. Our US economists’ baseline remains that the Fed raises rates by 50bps this year (25bps hikes in September and December). But they think the FOMC is unlikely to take much comfort in yesterday’s market reaction (see their reaction note here), with the rise in long-end rates coupled with the decline in forward real yields suggesting doubts about an imminent return of price stability. I would also add that while aggregate US credit conditions are far from restrictive, aggressive curve steepening could exacerbate existing pockets of vulnerability, such as the lacklustre housing market, as highlighted in my money and credit update earlier this week (see here). This rise in yields ended up weighing on equities after some big intra-day swings. The S&P 500 went from trading more than half a percent down pre-FOMC to higher on the day during Warsh’s press conference but then saw a sharp drop in the final hour of trading to close -1.52% lower. Equities were also weighed down by another rout in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index slumping by -5.33%. The tech declines also brought the NASDAQ 100 (-2.06%) into technical correction territory with the index now down -11.3% from its early June peak. The market mood also wasn’t helped by yesterday’s rise in oil prices, with Brent crude settling +7.91% higher at $90.74/bbl. While a good chunk of that increase had come during Asian hours yesterday, prices jumped further after Trump’s comments that “we’ll be hitting them hard” in response to Iranian strikes against a US base in Jordan. The situation remains tense and overnight the US launched a new wave of strikes against Iran. These were apparently limited to IRGC targets (rather than escalating to targeting civilian infrastructure), and Brent crude (-1.16%) has pulled back a bit of yesterday’s spike this morning. Yesterday evening we also got earnings from Microsoft and Meta. Microsoft delivered stronger-than-expected +43% yoy growth in cloud revenue (vs +39.6% est.), the fastest growth since early 2022, and expects this to accelerate to +45% in the current quarter as cloud demand outstrips supply. Microsoft’s shares rose by almost +9% in extended trading. By contrast, Meta’s shares fell by more than -7% after-hours as the company offered underwhelming revenue guidance for Q3 ($61-64bn vs $63.17bn est.). At the same time, Meta’s 2026 capex forecast was revised marginally higher. With investors questioning the company’s competitiveness in the AI race, its stock was already down -11% so far this year. Next in focus will be results from Apple and Amazon this evening. Microsoft’s results have supported a recovery in the tech mood overnight, with NASDAQ futures up +0.57% as I type. However, the equity mood is mixed across Asia this morning. The Nikkei (+0.75%) is recovering after declines over the previous two sessions, but the KOSPI (-1.30%) is moving lower following on yesterday’s steep -5.98% decline. Korea’s index had climbed as much as +5.50% early in today’s session before giving up the gains, with index heavyweight Samsung down about -2% after its Q2 earnings, which included a more than 250-fold year-on-year rise in semiconductor profits. The KOSPI remains on course for a weekly decline of around -15% amid mounting concerns around the AI trade, prompting Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol to apologise for the rollout of single-stock leveraged ETFs. Elsewhere in Asia, market performance is subdued, with the CSI 300 (-2.18%) and Shanghai Composite (-1.15%) declining, while the Hang Seng (-0.03%) is little changed. Looking ahead to today, we will see the latest Bank of England decision, which is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 3.75%. Our UK economists expect a 7-2 vote split with Chief Economist Huw Pill and external MPC member Megan Greene opting for a 25bps hike. Markets will focus on the chances of a rate hike at the upcoming meetings, with a hike by September currently 60% priced. Our economists currently expect the BoE to stay on hold this year, though they do see risks of a hike in the event of a more persistent energy price shock or a pickup in wage growth.  On the data front, today’s attention in the US will be on the June PCE report and Q2 GDP data. Our US economists expect a +0.19% monthly reading on June core PCE and a +1.9% annualized rise in Q2 real GDP. We will also see the Q2 GDP release for the euro area, with our economists seeing upside risks to the +0.2% qoq consensus expectation (see here), as well as July CPI releases in Germany and Spain. You can see our European economists’ inflation preview here. Ahead of these releases, European bonds slumped yesterday as the rise in oil pushed up inflation expectations, with 10yr bund yields up +5.7bps to 3.16%, while OATs (+7.8bps), BTPs (+8.9bps) and gilts (+9.2bps) posted even larger rises. European equities were mostly weaker, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.29%), CAC (-0.60%) and FTSEMIB (-0.49%) all lower, though the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced (+0.34%). Across other asset classes, the dollar index (-0.52%) was the main underperformer in the FX space yesterday following the Fed decision, while in credit US HY spreads widened by +7bps to their highest level since early April. To the day ahead now, the macro focus will be on the Bank of England policy decision as well as a heavy slate of data releases. These include Q2 GDP from the US, Eurozone, and Germany, as well as the US June PCE report, personal income and spending figures, and the latest weekly jobless claims data. We also get July Eurozone confidence and flash CPI releases for Germany and Spain. On the earnings front, highlights are results from Apple and Amazon after the US close, while other notable releases include Mastercard, Shell, Schneider Electric, Rolls-Royce, and BAE. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 08:13

US Launches New Airstrikes On Iran After Trump Warned "They're Going To Get A Beating" Summary New US attack wave on Iran begins in overnight hours. Tehran denies seeking talks, insists on Hormuz terms. Oil climbs as attacks on Saudi energy sites continue. Conflict widens with joint US-Saudi strikes in Iraq which killed at least 20. //--> //--> //--> Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25% · No 76%View full market & trade on Polymarket *  *  * New US Strikes on Iran Begin in Night Hours The United States has begun a new round of airstrikes in Iran in the night time and early morning hours (local), according to a senior US official to Axios. The extent of the bombings, or whether they will be sustained, remains unclear: Trump “is in an escalatory mood” but is still contemplating “the depth of that response.”, A senior administration official says - WSJ Trump is apparently making good on his earlier Wednesday threat: President Trump has told Fox News that he is "going to beat the fucking shit" out of Iran in response to their attack on US forces in Jordan overnight. Speaking to Trey Yingst, he added "we'll be hitting them hard, they're going to get a beating." There was heavy US refueler activity in regional skies just ahead of the strikes' commencement - as well as unconfirmed reports of explosions at Riyadh's international airport, but the cause has remained subject to speculation. But with each attack on Iran, its forces tend to respond in kind against Gulf countries hosting US assets and bases. It is going to be a long night for the region, especially while bracing for the IRGC's inevitable response. >Before NOTAMs >After NOTAMs Large areas have been cleared in northeast, northwest and possibly southern Saudi, opening up corridors at all altitudes. While commercial traffic is filtered through a single narrow corridor. pic.twitter.com/9ZjYkjmars — barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry) July 29, 2026 US is quite clearly stuck, in search of a strategy... I think there's going to be a ground attack soon. What lunacy. — Brandon Weichert (@WeTheBrandon) July 29, 2026 Details of Trump-Netanyahu Meeting at Oval Finally Emerging After on Tuesday President Trump hosted both Zelensky and Netanyahu in the Oval Office there were no big press conferences or readouts given. But on Wednesday some key statements have begun to emerge concerning what was discussed, but at this point only offered via the Israeli side... To be expected, Iran and the nuclear question dominated the discussions, according to i24's Ariel Oseran, with Israeli officials describing a White House focused on three possible paths forward. "Trump is weighing three options: a nuclear deal, maintaining and intensifying the economic blockade, or renewed military strikes," one official said, adding, "We didn't tell Trump Israel's preference is a strike. Our preference is the outcome. The decision is ultimately his." ...talk about stating the obvious. But Israeli still maintains that the situation is at tipping point inside Iran, which according to more independent 'realist' analysts seems highly dubious. Israeli officials argued that Tehran is under mounting internal strain. "Iran is under severe economic pressure" due to fuel and diesel shortages, roughly 90% inflation, and "the beginning of public protests." They added, "We discussed increasing pressure on Iran, both economically and kinetically." On Iran's leadership, officials said, "We know for certain Mujtaba is alive, but since Operation Rising Lion no one has seen him." Regarding Iran's military capabilities, they claimed, "Iran now has only 1,500–1,600 missiles left after we destroyed much of its production capability." Expletives fly and Trump talks 'tough' - but this whole gambit has been a bombing campaign in search of a strategy... "We're going to beat the fuc*ing sh*t out of them," President Trump told Fox News after Iran launched a surprise attack against U.S. forces. "We'll be hitting them hard." The President says U.S. strikes overnight against Iran-backed militias in Iraq were coordinated with the… pic.twitter.com/AeLbEGFCFi — Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) July 29, 2026 Addressing the nuclear program, Israeli officials (somewhat surprisingly) assessed, "We currently do not assess that uranium enrichment is taking place at Pickaxe Mountain, and we have good intelligence on Iran's nuclear material." They also asserted, "Eliminating 29 nuclear scientists was our insistence. It removed a critical mass of knowledge from Iran's nuclear program." This comes just after Trump vowed to wipeout the highly fortified facility, which would be a tall order given that it's essentially under a mountain. Looking ahead, they warned, "If Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear program, we will strike the 'metastases' as well." Israeli officials also said they remain skeptical of diplomacy, telling reporters, "We told President Trump we have serious doubts about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran." As of yet, the White House has not offered a detailed readout of the Netanyahu discussion from the US point of view, however. Regional reports say some IRGC advisors were killed in the fresh US-Saudi operation in Iraq. Iran Again Denies Trump Claims it is Urging US Talks The few days of calm that persisted over last weekend since Friday are already a thing of the past, as tit-for-tat serious attacks between the US and Iran return, and now involving the Saudis and proxy militants in Iraq. The fresh flare-up started as we reported when in the overnight and early hours of Wednesday (local) Iran launched several missiles on a US base in Jordan, with the Jordanian armed forces saying they intercepted five projectiles. Iran is framing this as new action due to US military activities enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. For many hours prior to that new Iranian assault, which was accompanied by launches out of Iraq on Saudi energy sites, international headlines claimed that mediators were getting close to restoring the defunct Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). As if to confirm that those headlines were nowhere close to reality, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has recalled President Trump's words claiming that Tehran was "dying for a negotiation"; but, said Gharibabadi, "We have sent no request for negotiation with the US during the past 16–17 days." Aftermath of strikes on the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan from days ago, via AFP The Iranians have continued to insist that its own terms for strait management will be the end result of this war. "If the Strait of Hormuz returns to its previous state, our success in this war is not complete," the Iranian diplomat said. He said this will include Iran's right to charge fees to allow ships safe passage. Trump: "We'll Be Hitting Iran Hard" (Fox) As for the renewed battle, President Trump has newly warned in a statement to Fox News that "we'll be hitting Iran hard" in response to the new attacks on American targets in Jordan. The new expanded nature and scope of the war has seen Saudi Arabia jump directly in against Iran-backed Shia paramilitary groups in Iraq, as well as the Shia Houthis of Yemen. Oil continues to climb on the escalation headlines... Rare Major Saudi-US Joint Strikes on Iraqi Militias Rare and major joint US-Saudi strikes on Iraq have killed at least 20 militants, and wounded 32 more, according to Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as cited in Al Jazeera: In an earlier statement, the PMF – which is an umbrella group for Iraqi militias backed, trained and loyal to Iran, said the attacks represent a “highly dangerous escalation” and a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and official security institutions. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a self-proclaimed resistance armed group backed by Iran, denied any role in the attacks on Saudi Arabia. It said Saudi claims were “fabrications” and that “any foolish Saudi action will be met with a harsh response”. CENTCOM acknowledged that operation as a response to this weeks attacks on Saudi infrastructure, marking the first major US military action in the Middle East since last Friday when Trump first declared a pause after the 13 prior straight days of fighting. Trump had noted in the Fox comments that the Saudi and US attacks were coordinated with Iraq. Ironically this comes at a time the Iraqi government has sought to appease Washington by overseeing a voluntary disarming program of its Shia factions. It has remained an open question to what degree this will actually be carried out. Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry issued a statement saying the offensive was "in response ⁠to recent drone attacks" on the kingdom. During those attacks, the Saudi military "intercepted and destroyed several drones that attempted to target petroleum facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh regions…. launched from Iraqi territory and carried out by Iran-aligned terrorist militias." It added that "The Kingdom emphasizes that it does not seek escalation but will respond to any aggression it faces." Meanwhile Trump continues to talk about taking out Iran's highly fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility: ⭕️ Trump Says Netanyahu Wants Him to “Stay Involved” in Iran Campaign During an interview on Fox & Friends on July 28, Trump expressed frustration that the media had leaked Netanyahu's plans to brief him on intelligence regarding an underground Iranian nuclear facility at… pic.twitter.com/bL2uGfFjbI — Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 29, 2026 Tehran has has responded by condemning the "clear aggression against the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq." Iran said the new US-Saudi joint action was "in line with the aspirations of the United States and the Zionist regime to expand the scope of war," according to the Foreign Ministry. Iran has pledged its support to its allies in Iraq: "While expressing condolences for the martyrdom of a group of honorable Iraqi people during these aggressive attacks, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes the full support and solidarity of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the government and people of Iraq, and holds the warmongering US regime and its accomplices in the region responsible for the dangerous consequences of these criminal, inhumane, and provocative actions," it added. War Persists Through November Midterms? Below, University of Chicago political scientist and foreign policy realist author Robert Pape that the war will stumble along and likely expand even through the midterms... "The victory rhetoric [from Trump] doesn't match escalation reality," he said. "It is out of sync." While Pape stopped short of predicting a yearslong conflict, he said meaningful policy changes are unlikely before the political landscape shifts after the midterm elections. "I think it will actually be after the midterms," he said. "Between now and January, this is not going to be over." Overnight developments  via Newsquawk... US CENTCOM said US and Saudi forces strike Iran-backed terrorist sites in Iraq. Iranian state TV cites an unnamed military source stating that Iran denies any link to projectiles fired from other countries at targets in Saudi Arabia. Chinese Foreign Ministry denies reported that Iran will received Chinese-made man-portable air defence systems in the coming weeks. Iran official said Oman proposal for Hormuz Strait joint regional management is to fail. Iran will get Chinese shoulder launched missile systems in weeks, according to Reuters. US President Trump said in a tele-rally that Iran wants to make a deal so badly, adds we'll get Iran to sign on the dotted line and we'll get the war over with. US CENTCOM said at 17.45EDT, IRGC forces launch multiple ballistic missiles from Iran and all Iranian missiles were effectively intercepted. US official said Iran launched missiles at a US base in Jordan, but noted missiles were intercepted, according to Axios. Iran considered retaliatory strike on Ukrainian seaport, although a flurry of diplomacy has eased tensions, according to NYT citing officials. US official said Iran is over reaching with demands that Oman, US and the international community are rightly rejecting on Strait of Hormuz. Deal being discussed is a coordination deal, there are no tolls and no fees. Iraq PM's planned visit to Saudi Arabia tomorrow has been cancelled, Iraqi government source tells Al-Araby. A senior Iranian official said Tehran has rejected Oman's proposal for regional joint management of the Strait of Hormuz as unworkable, reported suggest. Iraqi sources said US and Saudi Arabia targeted a mosque and water purification plant in Baghdad. IRGC noted that 3 tankers were hit and seized in the Hormuz Strait, adds US interference in the region will not go unanswered. Explosions were heard in south Baghdad, while reported noted US and Saudi strike in Kirkuk and Salah Al-Din. Israeli PM Netanyahu said meeting with Trump is one of the best we've had. IRGC confirmed that they fired ballistic missiles at the US Air Base and US Military Central Command Center in Jordan. US President Trump posted that he had a very good meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu and many important subjects were discussed. Explosions reported in Al-Suwayrah, Wasit province South of Baghdad. Source circulates 'footage of a direct hit on Muwaffaq Al Salti Air Base in Jordan'. IRIB reported explosions in Jordanian airspace and that US base in Jordan was possibly targeted. Iranian media sources report explosions in US base in Jordan due to Iranian missile attack. Three Japanese-linked vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's designated route, Kyodo reported. An Israeli military source said Defence Minister Katz disclosed operational details about the takeoff of US fighter jets from Israel to carry out strikes on Iran, Al Hadath reported. Several loud explosions are being reported in Jordan, according to Nour News. Sources said Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships transiting the southern Red Sea. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 07:40