Zerohedge

The Super Bowl Top Signal Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com, You’ve likely heard about peaks in markets often coinciding with magazine covers saying the opposite. Well, this is simply a representation of zeitgeist. Another representation of zeitgeist is advertising at the Super Bowl. For long-time readers, you may recall our selling Bitcoin way back before it nosedived. We highlighted that at the time there were crypto ads running wild at the Super Bowl. We even had Matt Damon shilling crypto. Remember that? Fun times. Well, you know what dominated this year’s Super Bowl? AI. It was in fact the single largest concentration of AI advertising in television history. Ain’t that something. 16 tech companies bought Super Bowl ads: OpenAI, Google, Amazon, Meta, Anthropic, Genspark, Base44, Rippling, Ramp — and more. Tech ad spending is double what it was during the 2022 “Crypto Bowl.” And here we are again. Just with AI. 2000: The Dot-Com Bowl. 14 internet startups bought Super Bowl ads at $2.2 million per spot. Pets.com spent $1.2 million on that ridiculous but now-famous sock puppet commercial. Ten months later it joined Elvis. The stock went from $11 to zero. Eight of the 11 startups that advertised were bankrupt or sold for cents on the dollar within a year. 2022: The Crypto Bowl. FTX, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and eToro collectively spent $54 million on Super Bowl ads. Nine months later, FTX was bankrupt and Coinbase shares fell 70% within a year. By the time the next Super Bowl rolled around, crypto had zero representation. So maybe this time is different. Maybe all these AI-related stocks — many of which are unprofitable, just like crypto and dotcoms — defy gravity and continue powering ahead. It is possible. But I would say improbable… despite the market thinking it not only possible but assured. And that is exactly why we have our hedge against a Nasdaq fall safely secured. When Revolutionary Tech Needs a Marketing Budget Alphabet is looking to issue a 100-year bond. The last time this happened was Motorola in 1997 — the last year Motorola was considered a big deal. At the start of 1997, Motorola was a top-25 market cap and top-25 revenue corporation in America. Never again! The Motorola corporate brand in 1997 was ranked #1 in the US, ahead of Microsoft. In 1998, Nokia overtook Motorola in mobile phones, and after the iPhone it fell out of the consumer eye entirely. Today Motorola is the 232nd-largest market cap with only $11 billion in sales. Remember when Austria issued a 100-year sovereign bond? That pretty much bottom-ticked the bond market. But wait… there’s more. Big Tech is dropping $700 billion on AI this year. Their cash flow? Circling the drain. Amazon’s going into debt. Google’s free cash flow is cratering 90%. And they’re paying influencers $600K each to convince you AI is worth using. Nothing screams “revolutionary technology” quite like needing half a million per creator to sell it. Then there’s the earnings carnage… All four giants reported earnings at once, and Wall Street had a meltdown: Amazon: $200 billion capex (largest in history). Stock: -9%. Free cash flow: -71%. Google: $185 billion spend (vs. $120 billion expected). Stock: -5%. Free cash flow: headed to $8 billion from $73 billion. Meta: $135 billion (double last year). Microsoft: -17% this year, worst in the group. Combined 2026 spend is projected to hit $700 billion. Morgan Stanley projects Amazon will burn $17 billion in negative free cash flow. BofA says maybe $28 billion. Amazon quietly filed with the SEC about needing to raise debt to keep building. Google already did a $25 billion bond sale. Their long-term debt quadrupled last year. They’re spending everything they have, borrowing more, then spending that too. Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta are paying influencers $400K–$600K each to promote AI on Instagram and YouTube. AI platforms spent $1 billion on digital ads in 2025 — up 126%. Google and Microsoft’s AI ad spending: +495% in January alone. Anthropic’s running Super Bowl ads. OpenAI’s flying creators to private events. When was the last time truly revolutionary tech needed a billion-dollar ad campaign? Did the iPhone need influencer deals? Did Google Search need Super Bowl ads in 1998? Did email need this? No. People just used them. You know what does need massive paid promotions? Pharma drugs. Crypto exchanges. Online gambling. MLM schemes. Products where adoption is hype, not utility. And now, apparently, AI. “This will eliminate your job. Also please use it. Here’s $600K to tell your followers it’s cool.” They need humans to sell a product designed to replace humans. They need creators to promote tech that makes creators obsolete. They need influencers to build trust in a system that eliminates influencer marketing. Here’s a question: if $700 billion per year can’t produce a product that sells itself, when exactly does this make money? $700 billion in spending, cash flow collapsing, stocks tanking, SEC filings about raising capital — and the best growth strategy is paying TikTokers to demo features. Either AI is about to deliver the greatest economic transformation in human history (and they need influencers to convince you this)… or we’re watching the most expensive corporate Hail Mary ever thrown. Look, I’ve no doubt that AI has its uses. We use it for research purposes amongst other things, and I think most people are now using it. That isn’t the point. There exists a mismatch between what we’re being told and what is actually happening. There is also a massive mismatch when it comes to the valuations ascribed to the related companies and their actual profitability. *  *  * The point is simple: when hype outruns reality, investors need to step back and look at the bigger forces driving markets.  We put together a free PDF report that does exactly that, breaking down the economic, political, and cultural shifts unfolding now, the risks they create for your money and freedom, and how thoughtful investors can stay one step ahead. You can get your free copy here. Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 19:45

Qatar Dethroned As 'LNG King' As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas Submitted by Criterion Research President, James Bevan,  The geopolitical calculus underpinning global LNG supply through the early 2030s has shifted materially. Iranian drone strikes on Qatari LNG trains, delays to key expansion projects, and the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created a compounding threat to Qatar's LNG position that goes well beyond a construction delay. What had been framed as a two-horse race for global LNG market share now looks considerably more one-sided. The beneficiary is clear: U.S. Gulf Coast LNG.  At Criterion Research, our outlook is for US LNG exports to nearly double by 2030, with further upside in the coming decade. Qatar's Gap Is Large and Getting Larger While Qatar’s loss of 12.8 MTPA for 3 to 5 years due to Iranian strikes is a serious blow to Qatar’s 77 MTPA export capacity, it is not a global catastrophe on its own. What is worrying is that Iran has demonstrated the potential for further strikes, which means that even restored capacity cannot be treated as a stable floor. Even if onshore facilities are repaired and the Strait is nominally reopened, LNG tanker operators and their insurers are unlikely to resume normal transits until they have, over time, earned confidence that vessels are not exposed to strikes or mines. That confidence cannot be declared by a government. It has to be proven through sustained safety in a conflict environment with no clear resolution, a process that could take months or years, regardless of the physical state of Qatar's terminals. Molecules that cannot move to market are effectively stranded, and the Strait of Hormuz shipping constraint is the piece that is hardest to resolve through engineering or diplomacy alone. Beyond current Qatari volumes being impacted, Qatar's three-phase North Field expansion program, encompassing NFE, NFS, and North Field West, was designed to lift total liquefaction capacity from 77 MTPA to 142 MTPA by 2030. Global LNG demand was counting on these volumes. All three phases now face indefinite delays, with no official revised timeline and no near-term path to resuming offshore construction. NFE’s first train had already slipped to a 3Q26 start before the suspension, and rumors say it was pushed to 2027 before strikes began.  Taken together, disruption to the existing base and delay of the full expansion program represent a potential swing of well over 100 MTPA relative to what the market had been counting on through the early 2030s. No other supply source can replace that on a compressed timeline.  The U.S. Fills the Void The U.S. project queue was already moving aggressively before Qatar's situation deteriorated. According to our data at Criterion Research, Golden Pass LNG is in active commissioning, CP2 Phase 1, Port Arthur, and Rio Grande LNG are all on track for first production in 2027, following, and CP2 Phase 2 reached FID. Post-FID US projects alone are expected to reach 39 Bcf/d by 2033. While the US cannot make up for the lost Qatari volumes before 2030, there is a strong pipeline of pre-FID projects for early 2030 and beyond that may now be pushed over the edge by new customer demand replacing Qatari volumes. The Demand Caveat The bull case is real but not unconditional. Whether demand materializes at the volumes required to absorb the full U.S. buildout depends heavily on price, and the infrastructure required to convert price-sensitive demand into actual imports remains well behind schedule. Across South Asia and Southeast Asia, the buildout of regasification terminals and downstream gas distribution that was supposed to undergird the bullish demand case for the 2030s has been repeatedly delayed by a combination of high prices, fiscal constraints, and the improving economics of competing renewable alternatives. The regas infrastructure that is not built in the late 2020s cannot absorb volumes in the early 2030s, and that pipeline of delayed or canceled projects represents a real ceiling on how quickly emerging-market demand can respond, even if prices fall to attractive levels. Paradoxically, a supply shock of this magnitude could push prices high enough to further delay that infrastructure buildout, suppressing the very demand growth that would otherwise absorb U.S. volumes. The structural demand from Europe and Northeast Asia, anchored by long-term contracts and supply security mandates, is likely to hold regardless. But the incremental emerging-market demand that was supposed to keep the market balanced through the mid-2030s now appears considerably more uncertain than the pre-conflict consensus assumed.  The Structural Conclusion Seldom has a supply disruption of this magnitude aligned so cleanly with a competing exporter's buildout window. The U.S. has a well-financed project pipeline, while its most capable competitor is facing key expansion delays, operational damage, and a shipping constraint that may outlast both. LNG dominance for U.S. LNG looks increasingly certain. Whether that translates into strong project economics across the board depends on which demand pools ultimately clear, and at what price. Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 18:55

Fear Of The Second Wave Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times, This time last year, it seemed like we were just about finished with the terrible inflation of the Biden years that had trimmed at least 25 percent from the purchasing power of the dollar. The hope has been for a year that the massive increases in money printing over the COVID years were finally done. As some put it, the snake had finally digested the golf ball. All along we’ve worried that the experience of the 1970s would repeat: three clean waves. After each, monetary authorities presumed that the problem was over and that life could go on as normal. Each time, inflation fired back up again, until it culminated in an inflation of the late seventies that changed life in America fundamentally. After that, two household incomes were more common than not, if only to maintain living standards. We could only hope that we would not repeat that experience. Indeed, history does not repeat but it does rhyme. Authorities tend to relax in vigilance once a crisis seems to have abated. The 2021–2024 inflation was devastating for real wages and salaries. Official data reports that they have been mostly flat and then somewhat rising. Maybe, but I personally cannot think of anyone who earned raises that have kept up with inflation over four years. That’s anecdotal, to be sure, but you are welcome to check my intuition against your experience. We don’t seem to see moves today from the Federal Reserve that would suggest a concerted effort in the direction of easing. Money supply has not taken off and the Fed is holding interest rates rather tight for fear of igniting inflation. It appears that the existing pricing pressures stem not from monetary sources but supply shocks. Of all the changes in goods prices that could impose the largest shock to the general economy worldwide, oil ranks near the top. Is that happening? Yes. Not only that: price trends were not heading the right way even before the war shock. There is really bad news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It concerns the Producer Price Index, which registers wholesale prices in a range of goods and services. It is generally more reliable than the index for consumer prices because prices are more uniform and accessible. What the PPI does today shows up in consumer prices in a matter of months, depending. The latest PPI print covering the month of February is sobering. The index for final demand rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 3.4 percent in February 2025. That is double the forecasted increase. The most eye-popping number concerns prices for final demand goods. They increased 1.1 percent for the month. Annualize the number and you get an incredible 13.6 percent, the hottest in more than 3 years. This is double-digit, which itself gets us into a strange psychological place. It kicks off panic buying and hoarding. A longer-term look, again from February before the oil price spikes, shows the worst annual rate of change in goods prices in two years. This will feed into consumer prices through the summer, even if the crisis ends now. That’s a number roughly equivalent to 1979-level inflation. So far it is only hitting wholesale prices but those are passed on to the retail level. And keep in mind that these February numbers were assembled before the Iran war throttled shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a huge price spike in oil that quickly folded into a gas price increase that you likely know all too well. The oil price spike has profoundly affected people the world over. We are looking at nearly a doubling of the price since the war began. And the problem is getting worse, not better. Gasoline is rising now at a pace not seen in more than 30 years. It also seems to be accelerating. My back of the envelope calculation over the last four years suggests it is rising 2 cents per hour. This isn’t just about the ways this price affects your driving. It hits every form of transportation from trains to planes to trucks. Tickets are already soaring in price but this also bleeds into goods prices at the stores, especially food. Anything that travels to retail outlets by truck is being hit hard now, as you already see in the rising cost of coffee. None of these are good signs. Yes, it could all flip the other direction if the war ends today but it will be months before prices settle down again even under the best of circumstances. Now let’s turn to real-time numbers as calculated by Truflation. It’s become very apparent that the good trends have already reversed in the other direction. From a low of 0.6 percent, we are now running 1.51 percent. More telling is the real-time number on good inflation. That is running 3.4 percent, the highest in 3 years. At this point, there is no avoiding the results of the inflation that already exists. How likely is a full blown energy crisis of the sort we saw in the 1970s? As we should all realize, that crisis was not only one of prices. It was the attempt to keep the price low with forced caps that caused the widespread shortages and gas lines. There is no question that this would happen again should the Trump administration pursue price controls on gasoline. In 1971, Richard Nixon imposed wage and price controls. He did not want to do that. He never imagined conditions would ever arrive in which he would push that button. But for him, it was a necessary expedient, the least bad of all possible choices. Moreover, he knew that it would not work but believed that the public needed to see him doing something to show that he cared and was acting on the problem. Trump might be drawn into something similar. One hopes that the Trump administration would not do that. But one cannot know for sure, sadly. It is the nature of any government to panic with falling poll numbers, parabolically rising energy prices, and a profound sense of a loss of control. All these factors are happening right now. I never watch mainstream media but a couple of days ago, I caught a broadcast on television that had nonstop messaging about gas prices. This is for obvious reasons related to politics but there is also something real going on here. For all the tax and regulatory cuts in the second Trump administration, the inflation pressures threaten to wipe out any and all income gains. Indeed, this inflation puts the entire second term at risk in ways the White House surely understands by now. Again, the cause of the price increases are a combination of factors but this one, unlike the last one, seems to be pushed by a supply shock rather than monetary factors. In a practical sense, for businesses and consumers, the impact is the same. It means that money buys less and that balance sheets are put under extreme pressure. I’m sorry for the bad news and I try to avoid apocalypticism. Wishes aside, and regardless of one’s views of this Iran war, the reality is before us and it is undeniable. We could be seeing a second wave of effective inflation kicking off that will create some serious economic disruption in all directions. Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 18:05

What 122 Universal Basic Income Experiments Actually Show Authroed by Vance Ginn via the Daily Economy, Artificial intelligence has become the latest excuse for reviving one of the oldest bad ideas in economic policy: a universal basic income. Recent pieces in Newsweek, the LSE Business Review, and Fortune have all helped push the idea that AI may soon wipe out so many jobs that Washington will need to send everyone a check. Image Credit: Shutterstock That makes for a catchy headline. It also makes for terrible economics. The right question is not whether AI will disrupt work. Of course it will. The right question is this: after more than 100 local guaranteed-income experiments, what have we actually learned? The answer is much less flattering to UBI than its promoters would like. What 122 UBI-Style Pilots Show A new AEI working paper by Kevin Corinth and Hannah Mayhew gives the best recent overview of the evidence. Per their study, there were 122 guaranteed basic income pilots across 33 states and the District of Columbia between 2017 and 2025. Those pilots allocated about $481.4 million in transfers to 40,921 recipients, with 61,664 total participants including control groups. The average recipient got about $11,765, the average pilot lasted 18.4 months, and the average monthly payment was $616. That sounds like a mountain of evidence. It is not. Of those 122 pilots, only 52 had published outcomes. Only 35 used randomized designs. Only 30 reported employment outcomes. So the case for UBI is not being built on some giant pile of clear, clean evidence. It is being built on a much smaller stack of studies, many of them weak, limited, or badly timed. And here is the kicker. Among the 30 randomized pilots with published employment results, the average effect was a 0.8 percentage-point increase in employment. UBI fans will rush to wave that around. They should slow down. AEI shows that the bigger and more credible studies tell a very different story. Among the four pilots with treatment groups of at least 500 participants, which together account for 55 percent of all treatment-group participants, the mean effect on employment was minus 3.2 percentage points. AEI also estimates a mean income elasticity of -0.18, which is consistent with standard labor-supply economics.  In plain English, when people receive more unearned income, work tends to fall at the margin. Shocking, I know. Economics still works. Credit: American Enterprise Institute Why the Evidence Is Weaker Than the Hype The AEI paper is useful not just for what it finds, but for how bluntly it describes the weaknesses in the evidence. The average treatment group among those 30 studies was just 359 people, and the median was only 151. That is not exactly ironclad evidence for redesigning the American welfare state. Among the 26 pilots for which attrition could be measured, the average attrition rate was 37 percent. That is a giant warning sign. If enough people drop out, the reported results can become badly distorted. The studies also varied widely in payment size, duration, sample composition, and even how outcomes were measured. The mean annualized payment was $7,177, equal to an average income boost of about 39.5 percent relative to baseline household income in the studies. Some pilots relied heavily on self-reported survey data. Some were conducted during or right after the COVID period — when labor markets, safety-net programs, and personal decisions were anything but normal. AEI’s conclusion is appropriately cautious: these findings may not generalize to a permanent, universal, nationwide UBI under current or future conditions. That alone should cool off a lot of the AI-fueled policy hysteria. AI Will Displace Jobs. It Will Also Create Them None of this means AI will be painless. Some jobs will shrink. Some tasks will disappear. Some workers will need to retrain, relocate, or rethink their careers. That is what happens when productivity rises and technology changes how goods and services are produced. It happened with mechanization, with computers, and with the internet. It will happen with AI. But displacement is not the same thing as permanent mass unemployment. That leap is where the UBI argument falls apart. Economies are not fixed piles of jobs. They are dynamic systems of discovery, adaptation, and exchange. When costs fall and productivity rises, resources move. Businesses reorganize. Consumer demand changes. New occupations emerge. Old ones evolve. Some disappear. That churn is real, but so is the adaptation. The answer to technological change is not to pay people for economic resignation. The answer is to make adaptation easier. UBI Fails the Economics Test There is a reason Ryan Bourne at Cato has argued that UBI is not the answer if AI comes for your job. It confuses a transition problem with a permanent income problem. Worse, it assumes that writing checks can substitute for the incentives, signals, and institutional conditions that actually create opportunity. UBI also crashes into the budget constraint. As Max Gulker at The Daily Economy has noted, UBI is often sold through small pilots and vague moral language, but the national arithmetic is ugly. And as Robert Wright in another AIER piece points out, “universal” quickly means sending money to many people who are not poor while piling enormous costs onto taxpayers. (Bear in mind, the national debt is already rapidly approaching $40 trillion.)  That is before getting to the public-choice problem. In theory, UBI supporters sometimes imagine replacing the welfare state with one simple cash transfer. In reality, government programs rarely disappear. Bureaucracies defend themselves. Interest groups protect carveouts. Politicians promise more, not less. So a UBI would likely be stacked on top of much of the current welfare state, not substituted for it. That is not reform. That is fiscal delusion with better branding. A Better Answer: Remove Barriers to Work If AI means more labor-market churn, then policy should focus on mobility, flexibility, and self-sufficiency. That means less occupational licensing, lower taxes, lighter regulation, fewer benefit cliffs, less wasteful spending, and more room for entrepreneurship and job creation. The government should stop making it harder for people to pivot. It also means reforming welfare the right way. My proposal for empowerment accounts is not a UBI. It would be targeted to people already eligible for welfare, not universal. It would include a work requirement for work-capable adults, not detach income from effort. And it would consolidate fragmented programs into a more flexible account that families control directly, reducing bureaucracy and lowering spending over time as more recipients move toward self-sufficiency. That puts it much closer to the classical liberal insight behind replacing bureaucratic control with direct support, while avoiding the fatal error of turning the entire country into a permanent transfer state. As Art Carden reminds us at The Daily Economy, there is a long intellectual history behind cash-based assistance. But today’s UBI politics are not really about shrinking the state. They are mostly about expanding it because elites fear AI. Don’t Make Bad Policy Out of Fear The UBI revival tells us less about AI than it does about politics. New technology arrives, uncertainty rises, and too many policymakers reach for the federal checkbook as if it were a magic wand. It is not. After 122 local experiments, the case for UBI is still weak. The best evidence does not show a jobs renaissance. The larger studies show employment declines. The broader evidence base is riddled with small sample sizes, high attrition, and limited generalizability. That is a flimsy foundation for a permanent national entitlement. AI will change work. It will not repeal economics. The best response is not fear-driven universal dependency. It is a freer economy with stronger incentives to work, save, invest, adapt, and prosper. Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 17:15

"I Think We've Won" Trump Says As Iran Refuses Hormuz Talks, Houthis Threaten Red Sea Strait Summary CBS reporting 'heavy preparations' for ground troops as Trump says 'no ceasefire' for now; Trump calls NATO a 'paper tiger'; says "close to meeting our objectives", offramp? IRGC contradicts Bibi: says missile production is ongoing, is of "no concern" - even as IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naeini is reported killed. Energy war ongoing: Major sites damaged across the region - Haifa refinery hit, Qatar LNG output cut 17%, Kuwait facilities ablaze. Kharg Island escalation looms: Trump admin weighing seizure of Kharg Island to reopen Hormuz; Thousands of Marines in route, reports of low US jet strafing runs over strait. Signal of zero restraint from Ayatollah & FM: Iran sends warning if energy sites are hit again, leadership structure grows opaque; supreme leader says enemies will be denied security. Chokepoint concerns in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb send Brent and WTI prices higher in late afternoon trading  *  *  * Trump: No Ceasefire, We've Won, 'Other Nations - Not US - Must Guard Strait' More somewhat confusing rhetoric on Iran plans from Trump: He said late in the afternoon Friday US strikes on Iran are "weeks ahead of schedule" - but caveated that he expects oil prices to surge more than they have. He repeatedly emphasized that he does not want a ceasefire - "we’re not looking to do that" - while leaving the door open to dialogue, insisting talks don't necessarily require halting the fighting. He said all this while also proclaiming "I think we've won." He also expressed he thinks Israel will wind down the war when the US does. Trump asserted further that Iran's military has been severely degraded, saying it has "no radar, spotters, aircraft" and that key leaders have been killed, concluding: "from a military standpoint Iran is finished" and "I think we’ve won." He also said Israel would be ready to end the war when the US does, noting both countries "want more or less similar things." Late in the day Friday Trump followed his verbal comments to reporters with this: Oil plunged immediately after the latest Trump statement went out: "NATO could help us, but they so far haven’t had the courage to do so. And others could help us, but we don’t use it," he said. "At a certain point, it’ll open itself." Again, some confusing messaging to say the least... "I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know, you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side," he said. "We’re not looking to do that." Trump hinted at possible escalation options around Kharg Island—“I may have a plan or I may not”—while accusing Iran of "clogging up" Hormuz. He also continued to berate Tehran leadership as "thugs and animals" - and praised Secretary of State Marco Rubio for doing a "fantastic job." Meanwhile Iran too is saying it is not ready for ceasefire or dialogue (at least in its public statements), and has expressed intent on exacting revenge. All of this means: no offramp yet in sight amid fresh reports that 'heavy preparations' for ground forces are being planned: "Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran, multiple sources briefed on the discussions told CBS News." More from CBS: "Senior military commanders have submitted specific requests aimed at preparing for such an option as President Trump weighs moves in the U.S.-Israel-led conflict with Iran, the sources said." REPORTER: “What’s your plan for Kharg Island?” PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I may have a plan or I may not, but how would I ever say that to a reporter?" "If I said that to a reporter, Marco would say, ‘please, sir let's bring you over to the helicopter immediately.’ Right? I can't tell… pic.twitter.com/iLcgj7lWOo — Fox News (@FoxNews) March 20, 2026 Fearless, Greek-owned Panamax bulk carrier transits Hormuz Chockepoint  The Liberia-flagged, 81,713-dwt bulk carrier Giacometti (IMO: 9615377) has become the first Greek-owned vessel to successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz with its Automatic Identification System active since March 2, according to maritime shipping news and intelligence outlet Lloyd's List. The Panamax bulk carrier transited westbound into the Middle East Gulf and was the first vessel to do so since the Panama-flagged MLS Onyx (IMO: 9373618) on March 5.  Still tanker flows remain mute at the end of the week.  Iran Refuses Hormuz Talks As Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Chokepoint Brent crude futures are above $110/bbl, and WTI futures are inching closer to triple-digit territory as traders fret over a weekend of chaos across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf area following this week's targeting of upstream energy assets. The latest headline to hit is that Iran is unwilling to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint while under attack, according to Bloomberg News. IRAN SAID TO STICK TO HARDLINE POSITION ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ With one maritime chokepoint in focus, we shift our attention to another: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. A report from Russian media outlet RIA Novosti states that Yemen's Houthi rebels are considering blocking commercial shipping traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. RIA Novosti continued: Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthis' political bureau, said that if the group were forced to close the strait, it would only attack vessels belonging to states that carry out aggression against Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq. He noted that the movement is considering all possible scenarios to support Iran in its confrontation with the United States and Israel. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, serves as a vital corridor for global trade, particularly oil and gas shipments between Europe and Asia. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, accounts for about 10% to 12% of global trade and serves as a key route for energy shipments to Europe. With Hormuz partially paralyzed, Saudi Arabia has shifted crude flows from the Hormuz area to the East-West pipeline and onward to Red Sea ports for loading onto tankers. Yet another maritime chokepoint becoming clogged would expand the conflict area and could further send energy markets into a tailspin. Trump Blasts 'Paper Tiger' NATO; Three More Warships Dispatched to Mideast The President has again expressed his frustration at lack of direct NATO participation in a plan to open up the Strait of Hormuz. He declared the US has "militarily WON" - and lambasted lack of allied interest in a "simple military maneuver" to open the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, oil is rising on news of a second massive Marine deployment toward Gulf in a week, WSJ is reporting: The Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, even as President Trump insists he won’t put American boots on the ground in Iran, according to U.S. officials. Roughly 2,200 to 2,500 Marines from the California-based USS Boxer amphibious ready group and 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the U.S. Central Command, responsible for all American forces in the Middle East, the officials said. Crude Futures as WSJ headline hit... IRGC Says Missile Production Intact, Contradicting Netanyahu  On day 21, the Iran war shows no signs of abating. Iran’s IRGC spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naeini was reportedly killed in an Israeli overnight strike, another high-level hit as the decapitation campaign grinds on. However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Friday that the Islamic republic has continued to produce missiles despite the war with Israel and the United States. This directly contradicts Israeli PM Netanyahu's assertions from the day prior, where he said both missile production capacity and uranium enrichment capability have been destroyed. Netanyahu had claimed, "Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium and manufacture ballistic missiles." "Our missile industry deserves a perfect score...and there is no concern in this regard, because even under wartime conditions we continue missile production," IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini said according to Fars. ⚡️Massive airstrikes in Iran this morning pic.twitter.com/5FBlymJ5V4 — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 20, 2026 Energy Complexes From Gulf to Israel Burning; Casualties Mount The energy war continues to be front and center. Israel confirmed major Thursday Iranian strikes hit its Haifa refining complex, damaging critical infrastructure, and leaving many in the area without power. Also, the attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility is expected to slash LNG export capacity by roughly 17%. Kuwait hasn't been spared either, with its massive Mina al-Ahmadi refinery hit for a second straight day, with fires ripping through processing units. Elsewhere, Bahrain says it has faced over 140 missiles and 240 drones since the war began, underscoring the scale of Iran’s regional barrage.  Across the region, escalation is bleeding into civilian life even in countries not directly part of the conflict. The biggest Muslim holiday of the year, Eid, is being celebrated, and in Iran the Persian New Year "Nowruz" is unfolding under air raid sirens, also with fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria. Currently Palestinians are being barred from Al-Aqsa during Eid. Casualties continue to mount with over 1,400 reported dead in Iran, including 204 children per the Red Crescent - and more than 1,000 killed in Lebanon. Signs of US Plans to Take Kharg Island But the real escalation risk surrounds what Washington's next move may be, as the Trump administration is actively weighing seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s key export hub, in a desperate effort to force Hormuz back open. One source put it bluntly to Axios: "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island, and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations." For all the bravado and rhetoric, some analysts see the situation as a classic escalation trap. But the report says no final decision has been made, but the direction of travel is clear. "He wants Hormuz open… If he has to take Kharg Island… that’s going to happen," one senior official said, while acknowledging a coastal invasion remains on the table. The Wall Street Journal in fresh reporting sees signs that an operation is already underway: "The U.S. and its allies have intensified the battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending low-flying attack jets over the sea lanes to blast Iranian naval vessels and Apache helicopters to shoot down Iran’s deadly drones, American military officials said." it writes. via Telegram sputnik_africa Iran Vows 'Zero Restraint' If Its Energy Sites Attacked Again Here's what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted to X on Thursday: "Our response to Israel's attack on our infrastructure employed FRACTION of our power. The ONLY reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation. ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again. Any end to this war must address damage to our civilian sites." And CNN reports Friday: "Mojtaba Khamenei, who has made no public appearance since being chosen to succeed his father, said in a written statement security must be denied to all Iran’s enemies." Things are meanwhile getting more opaque in terms of leadership structure inside Iran: "Iran has not named replacements for the vast majority of senior officials killed by Israeli strikes since the conflict began on February 28," CNN reports. Iran's strategy appears to be to survive while imposing severe high costs: Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway https://t.co/T6hrWxL1Op pic.twitter.com/t8Qos0vB1A — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 19, 2026 Intense Attacks on Israel Continue There has remained heavy censorship in Israel amid the war, but various overnight reports suggested another past 12 hours of heavy Iranian missile bombardment of Israel. Times of Israel confirmed, though without much in the way of details that sirens have been constant around central and northern Israel. There were at least half a dozen missile salvos on Israel since late last night. "A home in the central city of Rehovot is burning following an apparent cluster munition impact, rescue services say," TOI writes. "There are no immediate reports of injuries after Iran launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead at central Israel." Flash90/TOI: The site of an Iranian missile impact in Rehovot, central Israel.  One war observer who has regional contacts wrote on X the following account: "Israel has been pummeled all night. Based on my counts of alerts and reports of landings from open sources the number increased tonight, though there are no reports of casualties." The journalist continues, "My Whatsapp groups are filled with people having breakdowns after not sleeping for two weeks. In Jerusalem 4 alerts were heard in a 90 minute span. Iran has been able to increase the number of launches daily. Everyone seems angry at the IDF and Netanyahu for lying about the destruction of Iranian capabilities." *  *  * Click link, buy knife, save dog...  Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 16:30

Putin Reportedly Offers To Cut Iran Intel-Sharing If US Does Same In Ukraine Moscow has been accused by top officials in the White House and in Congress of expanding its intelligence-sharing with Iran amid the now three-week-long war involving the US and Israel. Russia has even been accused of handing over targeting information, allegedly assisting in Iranian ballistic missile attacks on US bases and radar sites as well as sensitive assets in the region. Russia hasn't confirmed that it is doing this, and has issued a meager official denial - but it also hasn't taken serious steps to convince Washington otherwise. The Kremlin is perhaps relishing in the idea of doing to the US in Iran precisely what the US is doing to Russia in Ukraine - making the operation harder, more costly, and setting up for potential quagmire.  On Friday Politico is reporting on a possible quid pro quo offer: "Moscow proposed a quid pro quo to the U.S. under which the Kremlin would stop sharing intelligence information with Iran, such as the precise coordinates of U.S. military assets in the Middle East, if Washington ceased supplying Ukraine with intel about Russia." Getty Images/CNN "Two people familiar with the U.S.-Russia negotiations said that such a proposal was made by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev to Trump administration envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during their meeting last week in Miami," the report continues. The sources indicated the US side rejected the offer. Of course, the US has long been very deep into the Ukraine crisis, and significant intel-sharing has stretched back for many years into the Biden administration and even before, in connection with the Donbass conflict of 2014. Politico underscores, "Nevertheless, the sheer existence of such a proposal has sparked concern among European diplomats, who worry Moscow is trying to drive a wedge between Europe and the U.S. at a critical moment for transatlantic relations." Assuming the fresh report is accurate, it raises some serious questions regarding US policy at this very sensitive moment of two major raging wars.  The sources here are "two people familiar with the U.S.-Russia negotiations." That could also mean two people familiar with leaking propaganda. https://t.co/Q29DmlQIHT — Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) March 20, 2026 For starters, much of Trump's base of support has already long been skeptical of Ukraine policy. There is a segment also not happy about the US launching another 'war of choice' in the Middle East, contrary to Trump's pledges on the campaign trail. There are also issues of 'overreach' and overextension in terms of American involvement in no less than two huge global hotspots - one of which Washington is the direct initiator (alongside Israel). If Trump did actually cease intel-sharing with Kiev, there would be many Republicans which would be quite OK with this. Even J.D. Vance and Pete Hegseth have appeared cold on the idea of too much support for Ukraine. KING: Can you update us on Russian intelligence sharing with Iran? GABBARD: If it's going on, that answer would be appropriate for a closed session KING: It's been in the press. Is it occurring? GABBARD: What I can tell you is that according to the Dept of War, any support… pic.twitter.com/zR5GibrDmT — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 18, 2026 Whether the alleged offer from Moscow will remain on the table or not is another question. But it seems clear Russia is ready to leverage events in Iran to its advantage related to Ukraine - even at a moment peace talks are clearly on indefinite pause. * * * Top selling supplements (in stock) Brain Rescue (on sale!) Iodine Fortify (are you deficient?) Resveratrol (potent antioxidant for healthy aging) Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 15:45

Will Chinese Robot Maker Unitree's Shanghai IPO Spark A Humanoid-Investing Bubble Unitree Robotics, one of China's top robot makers - spanning robo-dogs to humanoid robots - has filed for a Shanghai STAR Board IPO, according to Bloomberg. The planned listing suggests that the humanoid robotics industry is entering a more accelerated commercialization phase in 2026, with a broader pipeline of public offerings likely to emerge alongside rising private capital flows across Asia and the US. The report states that Unitree plans to raise $610 million on the STAR Board, part of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with proceeds expected to fund AI models and develop new robots. 🤯Absolutely insane. Unitree's humanoid robot team's performance at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala The significance of the humanoid robot's performance lies in letting 1.4 billion Chinese people know where the future lies. pic.twitter.com/6vXIX2MfWM — CyberRobo (@CyberRobooo) February 16, 2026 Unitree reported revenue of 1.71 billion yuan last year and net profit of 287.6 million yuan, more than double the prior year. Humanoid robots accounted for over 51% of revenue in the first nine months of 2025. We have outlined a number of institutional notes this year that provide a framework suggesting that AI's next frontier is physical, as humanoid robots begin moving onto factory floors and beyond. The Shanghai Morning Post recently pointed out that "robot brains" for humanoid robotics have arrived. As we noted, this suggests that dual-use fears are mounting. UBS analysts led by Phyllis Wang noted last month that Unitree was the leader in global humanoid robot shipments in 2025. 2025 Shipments by company Wang marked 2026 as the year humanoid robot shipments begin to ramp up. The real surge comes in the 2027-28 timeframe. Foundation Robotics cofounder Mike LeBlanc told us, "We didn't get to the moon by being cautious. When the U.S. sees a strategic race, it funds its way to the front. Robotics is the new race." He's implying that the US humanoid robotics space is about to heat up. LeBlanc prepares to hand a shotgun to a PhantomMattia Balsamini for TIME. Source: TIME LeBlanc's Phantom MK1 robots were recently sent to Ukraine for testing. His company holds government research contracts worth $24 million with the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force, and is a military-approved vendor, implying these robots are moving beyond factory floors to dual-use security applications. Any Unitree IPO will provide bullish tailwinds for US robotics startups, as investors realize the next bubble will be in the humanoid space. The IPO is also bullish for "war unicorns," as the Department of War's DOGE resets its procurement program and directs more funding toward defense startups. Follow the money: DoW is searching for bankers to deploy $200 billion in private equity over three years into defense companies. Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 14:25

Dr. Oz Says He's Eyeing Florida In Medicaid Fraud Crackdown Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, The administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) confirmed this week that his office is eyeing Florida for instances of potential health care fraud. Dr. Mehmet Oz, also known as Dr. Oz, wrote on March 17 on X that what he saw in Florida “around durable medical equipment fraud was horrifying” and indicated that Florida and Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, are “next up” in his fraud investigation. “The scale is out of control—and not just limited to these schemes,” he said in the post. “The reality is that fraud in our government health programs is widespread, sophisticated, and deeply entrenched.” The announcement appears to signal that Florida is the first GOP-controlled state to be targeted by CMS in a crackdown on health care fraud. Previously, New York, Minnesota, and California were the states that Oz had focused on. DeSantis’s office did not respond to a request for comment by publication time. Authorities in Florida suggested that they would work with the Trump administration in rooting out fraud in health programs. Jason Weida, chief of staff for the Florida governor, responded that the state is working with Oz and CMS to discover any criminal activity. “We have zero tolerance for waste, fraud, and abuse—and we will aggressively deploy every resource necessary to root it out at any level in our state,” he wrote in a post on X. Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, a Republican, said in a post, “The Medicaid system is overwhelmed with fraud and abuse, and we look forward to working with Dr. Oz on these issues!” He provided an example in which his office prosecuted a man who allegedly stole Medicaid funding that was meant for transportation services for disabled children in the state. Since taking office last year, the Trump administration has prioritized rooting out fraud, waste, and abuse within the federal government. A task force, the Department of Government Efficiency, was also established by President Donald Trump to help with the removal of wasteful or fraudulent programs. It comes as Trump signed an order on March 16 creating an anti-fraud task force led by Vice President JD Vance to look into fraud allegations across the country. Trump specifically singled out California during his remarks on March 16 and said that fraud allegations were higher in Democrat-led states than in Republican-led ​states. Vance, who appeared with Trump in the Oval Office during the announcement, said the order would force the federal government ‌to “stop ⁠the fraud of the American taxpayer and make sure that the benefits that ought by right go to American citizens, go to American citizens, and not to fraudsters.” The vice president last month ​criticized Minnesota ⁠Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat who was presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s running mate in 2024, over his efforts to combat fraud. Walz had criticized the Trump administration for what he described as a “campaign of retribution” against him. Responding to the Trump administration’s allegations of fraud in his state, the office of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, criticized the president and said his administration has arrested numerous criminals who allegedly engaged in fraudulent activities. In a post on X, Newsom’s office wrote, “If Trump is serious about fraud, great—he’s got a partner in California in wanting to tackle it.” Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 13:25

These Seven Allies Concocted A 'Hormuz Coalition' Statement To Placate Trump, Which Failed We reported earlier that President Trump has again expressed his extreme frustration at lack of direct NATO participation in a plan to open up the Strait of Hormuz. He declared the US has "militarily WON" - and lambasted lack of allied interest in a "simple military maneuver" to open the Strait of Hormuz, calling NATO a "Paper Tiger" without the US. And so clearly Trump himself is unconvinced after on Thursday seven allied nations signed a statement expressing a readiness to contribute to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The statement included no pledge to commit warships or any kind of military or even logistical help, and so is somewhat of a facade and pure PR spectacle.  Royal Thai Navy/AFP via Getty Images These countries are: UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, and Canada. But again there's no military role here: "We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait," the close US allies announced. The joint statement did of course condemn Iran, and seemed generally supportive of Trump's actions, even as individual leaders like Germany's Merz have expressed they would have been against starting a war with Iran in the first place. It further denounces ongoing Iranian attacks commercial vessels and energy infrastructure, citing "the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces," and calls on Tehran to "cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the strait." One reporter writing for Axios views the statement as "largely a gesture to placate Trump, who has railed against allies for declining to help secure the strait and warned that a failure to do so could undermine the future of NATO." Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has made clear that no EU state is at moment considering "a military mission to forcibly break the Iranian blockade," adding the EU favors "diplomacy and de-escalation." Other EU countries like Spain, Greece, and Switzerland have also made it clear they won't join the war. Washington has meanwhile put a lot of pressure on the UK for some tangible assistance, but this too has been a disappointment for the White House who appears to be 'going it alone'. As for a total list of countries individually called on by Washington, these have issued formal refusals: Here are some of the countries that have rejected Trump's request to help re-open the Strait of Hormuz: 🇦🇺 Australia 🇫🇮 Finland 🇫🇷 France 🇩🇪 Germany 🇬🇷 Greece 🇮🇹 Italy 🇯🇵 Japan 🇳🇱 Netherlands 🇪🇸 Spain 🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) March 16, 2026 But the US and Israel seem to be getting pulled deeper into the war in the Persian Gulf and near Kharg Island in particular, with thousands of US Marines en route to the region. What they will ultimately do when they get there remains anyone's guess - though reports say Trump is mulling a takeover of Kharg. As a reminder, Trump has claimed an operation would include "so little risk"... Such a plan might prove bloody and difficult, which is perhaps why so many US allies are content to stay on the sidelines, fearing they too could soon join another Middle East quagmire. Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 12:20

JPMorgan Activates BTC & ETH As Institutional Collateral Via Sentora Research, JPMorgan has officially bridged the gap between "Digital Gold" and "Wholesale Credit."  The activation of direct BTC and ETH collateralization allows institutional giants to finally turn their dormant holdings into immediate USD liquidity without selling a single satoshi. Operating through the Kinexys (formerly Onyx) digital financing platform, the bank now allows institutional clients like hedge funds and corporate treasuries to pledge BTC and ETH for USD-denominated liquidity. Unlike previous years where only ETF-wrapped products were supported, this move enables borrowers to leverage their direct on-chain holdings without triggering the capital gains taxes associated with liquidation. The quantitative framework for these loans is defined by a rigorous risk-weighted haircut model. Under the current policy, JPMorgan applies a 30% to 50% haircut on BTC and ETH, effectively setting the maximum Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio at 50% to 70% depending on 90-day volatility metrics. This structure is designed to buffer against the "cascade risk" inherent in crypto markets, where a 15% intraday drop could otherwise trigger systemic liquidations. By treating BTC and ETH as Tier-1 collateral, JPMorgan is effectively putting them on the same playing field as high-quality corporate bonds. Tri-Party Custody: Assets are not held on the bank’s balance sheet but are secured via qualified third-party custodians like Coinbase Custody and Anchorage Digital. This ensures that the bank facilitates the credit while the assets remain in high-security, audit-ready vaults. Atomic Settlement: By utilizing the Kinexys blockchain, JPMorgan has reduced the time to move collateral from T+2 days to under 120 seconds. This allows for real-time margin adjustments and prevents the "lag" that often causes over-collateralization in traditional banking. Tax-Efficiency: Because the institution is borrowing against the asset rather than selling it, they avoid triggering capital gains taxes. This makes crypto-backed credit the most tax-efficient way for "whales" to access their wealth. The chart clearly shows that BTC collateralized borrowing rates are consistently trending below US high-yield corporate bond yields, even though BTC remains a more volatile asset. Source: DeFiLlama While there are occasional spikes during periods of market stress, reflecting short-term liquidity demand and volatility shocks, the overall cost of borrowing against BTC remains structurally lower. This suggests that the market is increasingly valuing BTC’s deep liquidity and global trading nature over its volatility, allowing it to function as efficient collateral. JPMorgan’s activation reinforces the trend by enabling institutions to unlock USD liquidity against BTC and ETH at lower rates, improving capital efficiency while accepting manageable volatility driven fluctuations. The broader implication for DeFi is the emergence of a hybrid credit market. By recognizing BTC and ETH as “pristine collateral” alongside gold and Treasuries, JPMorgan is effectively lowering the cost of capital across the system. This brings in significant liquidity, but it also concentrates risk, since these structures rely on a small set of regulated custodians to hold assets. More broadly, this marks a shift in how balance sheets are used. Assets are no longer just held for exposure, they are actively used to generate liquidity and improve capital efficiency. Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 11:25