Zerohedge

NATO's Last Stand? Authored by Matthew Andersson via AmericanThinker.com, Critics may be misreading the recent NATO summit.   It looks to them as if the U.S. is unilaterally siding with Europe against Russia.   President Trump is smarter: he knows who has the winning hand, and his direct communications with his peers, Xi and Putin, are not always public.  President Trump's earliest critical instincts toward the EU and NATO still hold. While the U.S. is currently extending them some diplomatic courtesy and limited support, Europe is ultimately surrounded on all sides by powers that make it irrelevant in global influence terms.  Europe has put itself into this predicament, due to its own domestic economic decline from bad policy choices.  It is using war as a way to revive its fortunes.  Its odds are long.  The EU is surrounded economically by the U.S. to the west; by Russia and China to the east, by a vast Arctic territory to the north that it cannot control, and by India and a rising Middle East power, Israel, to the south. Europe has no strategic maneuvering room. It has limited prospects to reemerge as a serious power, and NATO is long past relevancy, and solvency.   Since his first term, President Trump has been right about Russia, and NATO.   Being “right” means understanding Russia’s long-term economic and trade importance, and appreciating its military prowess. Along with China and the U.S., it makes up the superpower triad. Being right also means he understands that the days are numbered for the EU and NATO, and that the world has changed without them. After the Anchorage meeting with President Trump, President Putin invited his counterpart to Moscow: Trump's guarded reply was a reminder that productive relations may be welcome by both leaders, but each is also operating in and surrounded by a complex defense and foreign affairs tradition that doesn’t trust the other side.  Some have called this the “crucible of belief,” and past experience is hard to overcome. Change will happen slowly.  Europe is part of that shared Eurasian landmass, and its security, but “Europe” is not a unified, single country.  Even within its own limited Western sphere, it has been a region constantly engaged in rivalry and war.  There was a period after Napoleon — roughly a hundred years — where relative peace was enjoyed.  But the 20th century has been just the opposite: a nearly unbroken chain of war — regional, revolutionary, world, and cold — and now, a new 21st century war is increasingly seen as inevitable. There are many political, social, and institutional explanations, but economic decline is at the heart of why the EU is determined to provoke Russia (and why it is pleading before the U.S.). If Germany, France and the U.K. were strongly led, however, with robust domestic industrial growth, controlled borders via immigration, and with less external energy dependence, if not facing domestic energy bankruptcy, such a conflict would not be necessary, or given any serious consideration.  In recent history, one only has to review Angela Merkel’s disastrous “green energy” policy, deindustrialization, open borders, and the idling of German nuclear power, as a strong explanation.  She fell completely for naive progressive ideology which asserts that oil no longer matters.   But for President Trump, the U.S. was going down the same path. France and the U.K. are just as bad in their string of weak leaders, uncontrolled borders, domestic violence from cultures foreign to their own, and deindustrialization and outsourcing. It is little wonder that Europe’s “leaders” are now economically trapped, and are turning to war as a desperate form of economic recovery. NATO’s putative head, Mark Rutte, was recently in the White House, pitching for war and U.S. financial backing, with slides and charts that looked more like a failed business recovery plan.  The old saying “be careful what you ask for” may be relevant, as NATO is functioning as a proxy for Western Europe, and looking to the U.S. as its pre-bankruptcy sponsor.  President Trump has seen this before. There are obviously many other interests and players driving this strategy, but German-French-British decline may be the largest factor. Scandinavia is somewhat immune, especially Norway with its natural resources and capital, but it is susceptible to European political and policy contamination.  Economic historian Walt Rostow, a White House national security advisor to U.S. presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson, provided a powerful economic model that goes a long way to partly explain why Eurasia, and Europe, have always been unstable and in conflict.  His “The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto,” maps how countries grow in relative stages of maturity. But it also predicts how countries will turn to war when those stages are challenged, interrupted, or allowed through poor leadership, or state interference, to stagnate or backslide. Europe has slid backwards from an advanced industrial and colonial power, to an effective open border welfare state, led by a weak political class with no plans, ideas, commitment, or national loyalties. Russia’s Kremlin has recently announced that its Special Military Operation in Ukraine has been converted to formal war.  While predicting its development is problematic, Russia's power advantage is so overwhelming that NATO can only been seen as engaging in effective suicide.  Given Europe’s cultural tendency to existentialist gloom, perhaps it is understandable. When war finally stops, as it must, it usually results in new borders, relationships, alliances, and deals being formed.  NATO and Europe seem to be counting on the chaos of war as a path out of their own weakness. The U.S. may lend some technical military support to them as a simple matter of arms sales, but this may be their own self-inflicted, poisoned chalice.  And in the end, the U.S., Russia, and China will simply resume their global dominance and power alliance. The EU will likely collapse or shrink; NATO will finally be decommissioned, and the old Atlantic Alliance will bypass Europe and align economically with Eurasia’s east and south — because that is where the power is.   That is what the stages of growth predict. The EU is also going to be further eclipsed commercially and militarily and by a rising Israel-dominated Middle East, because they know what they want, they have a plan, and they know how to fight.  European bureaucrats like Rutte, Macron, Merz, and von der Leyen do not, and face an interesting fate when they finally realize that this battle is likely their last political stand. The citizens of Europe may be relieved.  Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 02:00

Women Over 40 Are Now Having More Babies Than American Teenagers Americans are increasingly reaching major life milestones later than previous generations, and parenthood is no exception. While overall U.S. fertility rates have fallen for decades, births among women over 40 are moving in the opposite direction. Rising education levels, delayed marriage, and high housing costs have all contributed to a growing share of women waiting longer to have children. Using newly published research based on National Vital Statistics System data, this map, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows where births among women ages 40–49 are most common across the country. Births After 40 Are Growing Nationwide For the first time, women over 40 are having more babies than teenagers. Since 1990, the share of U.S. births to women 40 and older has more than tripled, reaching 4.3% in 2025, while birth rates among women ages 40–49 rose 24% over the past decade. The table below highlights where births among women ages 40–49 were most common in 2024. Washington, D.C., recorded the highest rate in the nation at 13.6 births per 1,000 women, followed by New York, New Jersey, and Hawaii. State Births per 1,000 Women 2015 (Ages 40-49) Births per 1,000 Women 2024 (Ages 40-49) % Change District of Columbia 13.1 13.6 4% New York 8.3 10.5 27% New Jersey 7.4 9.8 32% Hawaii 8.6 9.7 13% California 8.4 9.6 14% Maryland 7.0 9.2 31% Massachusetts 6.9 9.0 30% Connecticut 6.0 8.5 42% Virginia 6.3 8.0 27% Delaware 5.0 7.8 56% Alaska 5.8 7.7 33% Washington 6.4 7.6 19% Florida 5.8 7.5 29% Colorado 6.1 7.3 20% Minnesota 5.5 7.3 33% Rhode Island 5.2 7.2 38% Illinois 6.0 6.9 15% Texas 5.9 6.8 15% Georgia 5.3 6.5 23% Nebraska 5.5 6.5 18% Nevada 6.0 6.5 8% Utah 6.4 6.5 2% Pennsylvania 4.7 6.4 36% Oregon 5.8 6.3 9% Vermont 3.7 6.3 70% North Carolina 4.6 6.2 35% Arizona 5.7 6.1 7% Idaho 5.2 6.1 17% New Hampshire 4.2 6.0 43% South Dakota 4.8 5.8 21% Maine 3.5 5.7 63% North Dakota 4.5 5.7 27% South Carolina 4.1 5.7 39% Wisconsin 4.3 5.6 30% Tennessee 3.8 5.5 45% Indiana 4.0 5.4 35% Kansas 4.6 5.4 17% Iowa 4.0 5.3 33% Michigan 4.2 5.3 26% Montana 4.9 5.3 8% Ohio 4.0 5.2 30% New Mexico 4.3 5.1 19% Louisiana 3.9 5.0 28% Missouri 3.7 4.9 32% Kentucky 3.4 4.6 35% Alabama 3.1 4.5 45% Oklahoma 4.0 4.5 13% Wyoming 4.4 4.5 2% Arkansas 3.3 4.3 30% Mississippi 2.8 3.8 36% West Virginia 2.9 3.3 14% 🇺🇸 U.S. Average 5.8 7.2 24% Many of the highest-ranking states are both highly educated and expensive, with steep housing costs increasingly delaying homeownership and parenthood. By contrast, Southern states account for seven of the 10 lowest birth rates among women in their 40s, including West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Still, most have seen double-digit growth since 2015, highlighting how later parenthood is rising even in lower-rate states. How Education Is Reshaping America’s Birth Rates The average age of first-time mothers reached a record 27.5 years in 2023, rising from 21 in 1972. Compared with previous decades, Americans are also spending more years in higher education. With more time spent attaining degrees and advancing their careers, women are increasingly deferring childbirth into their 30s and 40s. Researchers have also found that older parents often bring greater financial resources. Studies suggest that children of older mothers perform better on math and behavioral assessments, largely due to higher levels of parental education and income rather than age itself. Later Parenthood Is Becoming More Visible Births after 40 remain uncommon compared with women in their 20s or 30s. Yet their rapid growth highlights how much the timeline of adulthood has changed. Previous generations often married, purchased homes, and started families in their 20s. Today, many Americans spend longer pursuing education, building careers, and saving for housing before reaching those milestones. As those timelines shift, later parenthood is becoming a more visible part of the American family landscape. To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the cost of raising a child in every state. Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 22:45

US Unleashes More Attack Waves On Iran As Trump Boasts 'We Bombed The Hell Out Of Them'; 5th Fleet Navy HQ Reportedly Struck update(2210ET): The Pentagon has confirmed late in the day Sunday that US forces have continues launching more strikes on Iran throughout the day, describing that the latest wave of strikes are aimed to "degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners." US Central Command has been providing more frequent updates throughout the day, as the conflict intensifies. "At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz," it stated. "The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian forces accountable." According to some emerging targeting info: Direct hits reported on US Navy's 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain: WSN and Noor News Explosion reported at US bases in Kuwait: Tasnim Explosions have also been heard in Iran’s Qeshm Island as well as Jask, state TV is reporting. Iran’s state TV is reporting explosions near Sirik and west of Bandar Abbas. CNN: Within past hour, IRGC fired at commercial shipping Trump was on NBC’s Meet the Press a few hours ago, and described Saturday’s US strikes on the Iranian military by saying, “We bombed the hell out of them.” And more of the latest from Trump: Also Sunday, President Donald Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the strait was open to commercial traffic. “It’s open. We bombed the hell out of them last night. They’re very, very evil and sick people,” Trump said. He said that the Iranians agreed to “a perfect deal for us” the day prior — “no nuclear, no this, no that, no nothing. They gave up everything.” “And then after that, they left the room. And then within an hour, they launched a drone at a ship,” Trump said. US Navy 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain reported struck by Iranian ballistic missiles this weekend: Smoke can be seen rising over the (mostly abandoned) US 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain after this morning's Iranian missile attack. pic.twitter.com/Qux9Xi3pvo — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 12, 2026 In the meantime The Washington Post has on Sunday issued an investigative report from the opening days of the war. Washington Post on Sunday is reporting that six Americans were killed in an Iranian drone attack on Kuwait during the second day of sustained exchanges of fire, on March 1st. Military sources cited in WaPo allege this was after American military commanders failed to act on warnings that the targeted facility was vulnerable. The emerging details point toward a severe failure of operational oversight: Exclusive: Six soldiers died on day two of the Iran war in a drone strike on Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. Dozens more were wounded, some seriously. It's one of the war's costliest attacks for U.S. personnel — and survivors fear no one will be held accountable. https://t.co/jBXpUs3bZz — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 12, 2026 Update 1210ET.  The escalation cycle intensified overnight and into early Sunday as the US conducted its third round of strikes this week, while Iran enforced its declared closure of the Strait of Hormuz and launched retaliatory attacks across multiple Gulf states. CENTCOM confirmed strikes began around 7:15 p.m. ET Saturday night, hitting approximately 140 Iranian military targets. These focused on degrading IRGC capabilities to threaten commercial shipping, including radars, missile/drone sites, launch systems, and coastal assets. Explosions were widely reported in southern and eastern Iran, with state media noting activity in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Qeshm, Bushehr, Asalouyeh, Jask (10+ blasts), Minab, and other areas. Some unconfirmed reports indicated strikes reached farther north toward Tehran, with Iranian air defenses active over the capital. A massive plume of smoke can be seen rising from Qeshm Island following heavy U.S. airstrikes. According to Axios, missile and air defense systems as well as IRGC speedboats were targeted in the attack. https://t.co/8Svlz532Rh pic.twitter.com/E8Efuvboq5 — MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 (@MoloWarMonitor) July 12, 2026 The immediate trigger was the IRGC attack on the Cyprus-flagged container ship M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel suffered significant engine-room damage and fire; the crew abandoned ship in lifeboats, with one civilian crew member reported missing. Iran described it as a "warning shot" on an unauthorized route. Iranian Response And Hormuz Closure The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" and until the end of "American interventions." Tehran framed its actions as defensive and retaliatory, launching ballistic missiles and drones at US-linked targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan (including Muwaffaq Salti Airbase), and Oman. Footage shows a massive plume of smoke following the impact of multiple Iranian ballistic missiles in Kuwait. According to my sources, the target of this attack are U.S. HIMARS ground-based missile systems, which were used last night against southern Iran. pic.twitter.com/34SS1psjZM — MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 (@MoloWarMonitor) July 12, 2026 Reports noted multiple salvos, with some impacts claimed at Jordanian facilities housing US assets (e.g., potential F-35 hangars). Gulf states reported interceptions and minor damage in places. Wow 🇯🇴 Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan appears to have suffered major damage from Iranian strikes Today’s satellite imagery shows a destroyed hangar and major ground disturbances across the apron, likely where US drones were housed. It also appears the runway was directly hit. https://t.co/GRTTx89cN3 pic.twitter.com/Q8K0S2ikAo — Egypt's Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) July 12, 2026 Leadership And Diplomatic Context President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized accountability, with statements underscoring that violations would carry costs. On the Iranian side, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated calls for revenge, tying them to national sentiment following the funeral observances for his father. The June Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) appears effectively suspended, with both sides accusing the other of bad faith. Qatari-mediated contacts continue but show no breakthrough, as Iran insists the US must first fulfill commitments on Hormuz transit and oil exports. This round represents the most significant breach of the fragile ceasefire to date, with risks to global energy flows heightened by the Hormuz closure. Oil prices remain volatile amid the uncertainty. Casualty figures from the latest strikes are still emerging (Iranian reports cite deaths and injuries), and the situation continues to evolve rapidly. Further monitoring of CENTCOM, IRGC statements, and regional air defense activity is critical, as both sides signal readiness for sustained pressure while leaving narrow diplomatic off-ramps. * * * Update 10:40pm ET. Somewhat predictably, as has been the pattern of this war - Iran is in the very early morning hours (local) launching retaliatory strikes on Arab Gulf nations, or as the Iranians say against US assets and bases in the Gulf. Per state media: IRAN LAUNCHES SERIES OF STRIKES AGAINST US TARGETS: PRESS TV Last week Kuwait and Bahrain were favored targets, but there are signs that Iran - now with reports of Tehran having been hit tonight (CBS) - could begin widening its attacks to include the UAE, or even potentially the Saudis (though there have yet to be signs of this).  What's clear is that things are back to square one - with the MoU agreement clearly effectively dead, unless diplomacy gets into overdrive and both sides show some measure of restraint. But restraint is not evident currently, only a widening up the escalation ladder. Iran has fired 12 Ballisitc Missiles towards Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan Reports of 3 impacts. The reason they aimed there could be for the F-35s parked there. We shall see. I was expecting them to aim for Bahrain or Kuwait. pic.twitter.com/zfYEJmTW3a — Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026 To recount from where we started Saturday morning, we wrote... As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors "The Escalation Trap," has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah's funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US. "The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend," Pape said. "The balance of political will shifted." Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: "The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation."  *  *  * Update 8:40pm ET. At 7:15pm ET, the US launched its third round of strikes on Iran this week after Tehran declared that it’s closing the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice", and Iranian forces attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the M/V GFS Galaxy, transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  US Central Command said that President Donald Trump ordered the fresh strikes, which targeted Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels, after the latest Iranian attack on the Hormuz-crossing vessel. Central Command said a civilian crew member is missing and the ship was unable to continue its journey after suffering significant damage. At 7:15 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching the third round of strikes this week against Iran after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces blatantly attacked M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A civilian crew… — U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 11, 2026 Shortly after the Iran’s state-run media reported explosions at multiple areas along the country’s southern coasts, including the energy and petrochemical hubs of Bushehr and Asalouyeh. Blasts were also reported at the port cities of Bandar Abbas and Bandar-e Dayyer, as well as the Sirik area near the Strait of Hormuz. BREAKING: The IRNA news agency says more than 10 explosions have been heard in the port city of Jask in the southern Hormozgan province. 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/sfnZg9WSSH pic.twitter.com/FAzm8nC9ou — Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) July 12, 2026 According to unconfirmed reports, the US strikes on Iran have reached all the way north to the Capital of Iran, Tehran as the US goes "full scale from bases in Kuwait and Bahrain." CBS Reports the Strikes on Iran have reached the Capital of Iran, Tehran The U.S. is going FULL SCALE from the bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran's air force is in the air and air defenses are active over TEHRAN pic.twitter.com/S0c6DWz9dE — Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026 “Iran made a poor choice,” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said on social media. “Now they pay.” Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay. https://t.co/8m4fEfgrXv — Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) July 11, 2026 The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the Hormuz closure, saying it won’t allow any vessels to pass through until foreign interference ends, according to state-run IRIB News. The IRGC said it halted a cargo ship after firing a warning shot because it tried to transit the strait on Saturday despite being told not to, the outlet added. The developments cast significant doubts over the potential for talks aimed at trying to reach a more lasting peace deal. The rhetoric had been getting more heated on both sides in recent days even as the two parties had suggested there was still room for conversations.  Reports from Iran of heavy new U.S. airstrikes in a Bandar Abbas, Bushehr nuclear facility, Minab, Qeshm, and several other locations pic.twitter.com/k2zK9N5pOm — Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) July 11, 2026 Earlier on Saturday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman on Saturday for talks on the future of Hormuz, but there was no sign of involvement by senior US envoys. Also Earlier, Iran demanded that the US implement key commitments under a recent deal before more talks take place, rejecting Trump’s contention that negotiations could continue without a ceasefire. Tehran said Washington must meet Iran’s conditions for resolving transit issues through the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing its oil exports. On Friday Trump threatened to shower Iran with “1000 Missiles” if it acted on a threat to kill the US leader, “in this case, ME!” The US had also demanded that Iran publicly declare all channels of the Hormuz open to shipping and pledge not to attack civilian vessels transiting the waterway. Tehran would face consequences if it fails to deliver the public assurance, senior Trump administration officials told reporters. Those demands followed several days of US airstrikes and Iranian retaliation that sent oil prices higher this week.  The Islamic Republic is holding a three-day memorial ceremony for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following a days-long funeral that drew large crowds to cities in Iran and neighboring Iraq. Khamenei was killed in an attack as the US and Israel began their war on Iran at the end of February. His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, on Saturday called for revenge for the killing of his father. “It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out,” he said in a post on X. Earlier Iran has thrown Trump's ultimatum and Saturday deadline right back at Washington, saying that instead it is the United States that must first meet the agreed-upon conditions in order to normalize shipping and energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz. Fars news agency reports Saturday that Iranian leadership is demanding that the US implement "agreed-upon understandings" before any talks take place. While the White House has declared the ceasefire to be 'over' - it has also indicated ongoing contacts and talks with Iran via mediators. But this appears to have been reduced to simple ultimatums being shuttled between capitals by Qatari mediators. There are no actual sit-down talks on the horizon after two rounds of fresh tit-for-tat attacks broke out this past week. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) itself is barely alive at this point, also with Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Amir-Saeid Iravani, separately announcing that Tehran could stop honoring the MoU if US attacks continue.  "Should the United States continue to violate its obligations under the MoU, Iran will no longer be bound to fulfil its obligations under the MoU," Iravani told reporters at UN headquarters. But he did make clear that Iran is still committed to the agreement "provided that the United States fully and faithfully complies with its own obligations." President Trump has meanwhile continued to issue his own warnings and threats. He said Friday that the US military would "completely decimate" Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out his assassination. He took it a step further in an overnight Truth Social Post, saying he has 1,000 missiles "locked and loaded" - aimed at Iran - should he be targeted by Tehran's agents. Strangely, the US President signed off with his puzzling "praise be to Allah!" reference - perhaps mockingly or sarcastically. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei still hasn't been seen in public after the Feb.28 US-Israeli airstrikes took out his father, killed members of his family, and reportedly badly wounded him. Mojtaba is said to be observing a private memorial for his slain father, and made no known appearance at the week-long funeral processions and burial. But on Saturday he did call for revenge in a rare public message. "It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out," he said. "We pledge to avenge your pure blood and the blood of all the martyrs of these two [recent] wars by taking revenge against the criminal, disgraceful murderers," the Ayatollah also stated. "This vengeance is what our nation is demanding, and this must definitely be done." He issued a series of statements tinged with Shia Islamic references. His words contain repeat vows to enacting vengeance, including this not so veiled threat to kill Iran's enemies:  The criminal, disgraceful murderers of the martyred Leader, whose names are fully documented from the highest to the lowest ranks, will carry their dream of a peaceful death in bed to the grave. — Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (@MKhamenei_ir) July 11, 2026 As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors "The Escalation Trap," has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah's funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US. "The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend," Pape said. "The balance of political will shifted." Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: "The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation."  Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 22:10

United States Retains Spot As World's Top Oil Producer Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times, The United States was the largest crude oil producer in the world in 2025, outputting a “record-high” 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a July 9 statement from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). America’s output was far ahead of second-placed Russia, which produced 9.9 million bpd. Saudi Arabia came in third with 9.6 million bpd, with Canada in the fourth spot at 5 million bpd. The difference in oil output between the United States and other top producers widened last year, with Russian supplies mostly remaining unchanged year-over-year while Saudi Arabia saw a modest increase. The 13.6 million bpd output breaks the previous U.S. and global production record of 13.2 million bpd set in 2024. The United States first overtook Russia as the top global oil producer in 2018 and has since retained the number one spot. EIA attributed the consistently high oil production in the United States to “continued gains in drilling productivity and operational efficiency across key shale basins, which allow operators to extract more oil per well.” Powered by shale development, the United States has become not only the top crude oil producer “but the largest producer of crude oil ever,” the agency said. In addition to record-high production last year, exports have been climbing. In April, U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit a record, with crude oil exports averaging 5.6 million bpd, 21 percent higher than the previous record from December 2023, the EIA said in a July 8 statement. The exports of finished petroleum products, including jet fuel and motor gasoline, hit the highest level since December 2024. The record-high exports in April 2026 came amid disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.–Iran war, a development that ended up boosting global demand for American energy. Brent crude oil futures had hit a peak of over $126 per barrel in April. Prices have since come down and ended Friday at around $76. In its latest statement, EIA said the jump in oil production last year happened despite oil prices being lower, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price dropping from an average of $77 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025. WTI is a benchmark for crude oil produced in the United States. Moreover, EIA predicts America’s crude oil production to be close to 13.7 million bpd this year and to rise to 14.2 million bpd in 2027. Boosting Oil Production The higher oil output follows multiple actions taken by the Trump administration aimed at boosting production. In November 2025, the administration announced the approval of new oil drilling leases off the coasts of Alaska, Florida, and California. In January this year, the administration initiated the first step to offering oil and gas drilling leases in California, with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management seeking information on potential lease areas to auction as early as next year. In March, the Department of the Interior conducted an oil lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, the first since 2019. This action came under criticism from the environmental group Sierra Club. Mike Scott, Sierra Club’s oil and gas campaign manager, in a March 18 statement, accused President Donald Trump of making oil corporation CEOs richer at the cost of the environment. “The Western Arctic is not just any landscape—it’s one of the last true wild places in the country, home to rare and threatened wildlife and cultures that have subsisted on the land for thousands of years,” Scott said. “Drilling in the Arctic won’t solve our energy crisis, but it will cause irreversible damage to these pristine landscapes. Big Oil has been champing at the bit to get its hands on these lands, and Trump is making their wishes come true.” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum had said, post the lease sale in Alaska, that the sale underscored the reserve’s vital role in strengthening America’s energy security. The reserve “was created to support our nation’s energy needs, and this successful sale demonstrates what’s possible when we align responsible development with that original purpose,” Burgum said. “Revenues from these leases will help bolster local communities, create good‑paying jobs, and ensure that Alaska continues to be a cornerstone of America’s domestic energy production.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice has decided to ditch the oil and gas leasing restrictions imposed by the prior administration in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Alaska and its industrial development and export authority had filed lawsuits challenging the restrictions. On July 7, the department said that these restrictions violated federal law and asked the court to dismiss the lawsuits. U.S. acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that the prior administration’s actions “improperly limited” Alaska’s energy potential through “unreasonable” regulations. “This settlement supports the Trump administration’s commitment to secure American energy independence and our national security for generations to come.” Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:00

Oil Jumps, Futures Drop On Fresh Iran Strikes, Hormuz Confusion Oil jumped and US equity futures fell after the US launched another round of strikes against Iran, while conflicting claims over the status of the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% in early trading Monday after the cash index closed 0.4% higher on Friday. WTI crude climbed 3% at the open, trading around $74, while the dollar rose against most major peers.  Risk crept in after the US military launched several rounds of strikes in recent days, culminating with the latest barrage around 5pmET on Sunday aimed at further weakening Iran’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said. The latest action followed Iranian drone and missile attacks on US allies including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar in response to earlier US strikes.  At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian… — U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 12, 2026 Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz only added to the uncertainty, after Iran said it had closed the waterway while the US military and maritime authorities said shipping continued through its southern route. According to Axios, a US official said "around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination." “The latest developments over the weekend suggest markets may face a volatile start to trading which could test the glass half full mentality we have seen recently,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note to clients. Besides a return to hostilities, investors are also bracing for a pivotal earnings season, with results from JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman and Wells all due Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 24% jump in second-quarter profits, though the benchmark’s rally has become increasingly reliant on gains outside the technology megacaps that have driven markets in recent years. In Europe, Deutsche Bank expects Stoxx 600 firms to report a 12% jump in second-quarter earnings, following a 7% rise in the first quarter. Profits for MSCI Asia Pacific constituents are estimated to rise 39%, up from 6.9% in the previous three months, largely driven by chip-exporting powerhouses such as Korea and Japan.  The outlook is being tested by persistent inflation, higher energy prices and growing expectations the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates, threatening corporate margins. Just last week, several Fed officials warned that surging memory prices are rising core inflation, with Goldman calculating that the impact on core PCE by year-end will be +0.5% due to surging chip costs. With US and global equities trading near record highs and valuations elevated, investors see little room for disappointing results. Investors will also keep a close eye on this week's US CPI data, after oil’s biggest weekly gain since mid-May revived concerns that higher energy costs could further complicate the disinflation story. Consumer and producer price reports - the last inflation readings before the Fed meets later this month - will offer fresh clues on the path of interest rates. Traders have ramped up bets on further tightening, with swaps pricing almost 40 basis points of Fed hikes by December, up from about 15 basis points in early June. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect both headline and core inflation to have eased slightly in June, though both are forecast to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.   Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also make his first congressional appearance since taking the helm after pledging to scale back forward guidance on the rate outlook. Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:20

Geothermal Heats Up: Fervo Drilling Rates Soar 143% While Quaise Raises $134M While the Trump administration keeps pushing domestic energy addition through funding vehicles and executive orders aimed at grid reliability and AI-driven demand growth, two next-generation geothermal developers just posted updates that move past announcements and into measurable progress on drilling and capital formation. Fervo announced that its third-generation well design at Cape Station in Utah has lifted drilling rates by 143% compared with the first Cape well.  The latest well, Sawtooth 7, reached 19,448 feet measured depth, including a 7,500-foot lateral, in just 21 days. That’s a 70% reduction in drilling time versus the prior design generation, even as the team targets hotter rock at 460 degrees Fahrenheit and larger casing diameters for higher output per well.  Phase I at Cape Station remains on track for first power later this year, with Phase II targeting 400 MW online in 2028. Faster wells directly compress costs and timelines for the kind of repeatable deployment investors have been waiting to see. Fervo’s Cape Phase II is tracking toward roughly $5,500/kW installed, with a longer-term target of $3,000/kW as the drilling learning curve keeps compounding. That remains well below the Georgia Vogtle nuclear units, which ultimately landed somewhere between $10,000 and $15,000/kW after years of delays and overruns. As we reported back in February when the DOE released its $171.5 million Notice of Funding Opportunity for EGS field tests and resource confirmation drilling, the policy environment has turned supportive for technologies that can deliver firm, 24/7 carbon-free power without weather dependence.  Quaise Energy moved in parallel with the initial close of a $134 million Series B round, bringing total funding to roughly $230 million. Prelude Ventures led, with strategic participation from JERA and Idemitsu Kosan of Japan.  The proceeds target Project Obsidian, the company’s planned first commercial superhot geothermal plant on federal leases in central Oregon near Newberry Volcano. Quaise’s millimeter-wave drilling technology is approaching one kilometer of depth in Texas test wells after penetrating more than 100 meters of granite.  The goal remains first electrons to the grid by 2030 from a facility with long-term gigawatt-scale potential once superhot rock above 300 degrees Celsius is routinely accessed. Both moves align with the administration’s emphasis on unleashing American energy dominance and securing reliable power for data centers that cannot tolerate intermittency. Geothermal’s baseload profile makes it a natural complement to the nuclear builds that remain frustratingly slow on actual construction despite regulatory tailwinds. Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 19:15

James Carville Has Major Freakout Over The Socialist Wing Of The Party James Carville thinks Democrats are making the same mistake that helped elect Donald Trump in 2016 - and he says they're doing it all over again. In a Politicon video posted Friday, the veteran Democratic strategist blasted the party's growing crop of Democratic socialist insurgents, arguing they're more interested in defeating fellow Democrats than Republicans and warning they'll hand the GOP more victories in the process. He pointed to a string of primary defeats that have unseated sitting Democratic members of Congress in favor of candidates running even further to their left. In New York, Brad Lander defeated Rep. Dan Goldman, and Democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier ousted Rep. Adriano Espaillat. Democratic socialist Melat Kiros beat sitting Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado. Carville also singled out Michigan candidate Abdul El-Sayed as the case study of what worries him most, accusing him of running a campaign that treats both parties as enemies rather than just Republicans. For Carville, the roots of today's fight go back nearly a decade. He called the 2016 election when President Donald Trump was elected the most catastrophic event of this century and put the blame on Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), whom he described as an insurgent liberal who dragged the Democratic primary into the summer long after the math had settled that race. "How did Trump win? I'll tell you how, because goddamn Bernie Sanders is the reason that Donald Trump is president. You hear me, listen to me, I'm telling you the truth." By Carville's read, the prolonged primary bled working-class voters out of Pennsylvania and into Trump's column. "Because Sanders is telling working people in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin... that somehow or another it was corporate America. Yeah, it's corporate. The Democrats are a corporatist party. There's no difference between the establishment Democrats... Are you kidding me?" Now Carville sees the sequel writing itself. He argues the new class of socialist challengers is running the same play against Democratic incumbents that Sanders once ran against Clinton, and he wants no part of the popular argument on the left that establishment Democrats and establishment Republicans are interchangeable. "These people are so f-king stupid I don't know what to say about it," Carville said. "So now we have this idea that these insurgent Democrats - and what is their solution?" His actual complaint runs deeper than a stray insult. Carville argues these candidates aren't trying to beat Republicans at all. They're running against their own party as if it were the obstacle, a strategy he considers self-defeating on its face. "Is their solution to beat Republicans, to run against Republicans? No! Their solution is to beat Democrats like they're part of the problem. You are part of the problem because you're a f-king idiot!" Carville warned Democrats against what he called false prophets, accusing far-left candidates of marketing themselves as superior to both parties in a pitch he thinks collapses under its own weight once the general election arrives. Carville's criticism of the far left and Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates hardly makes him a moderate. He still views the Democratic Party as America's answer and the Republican Party as its biggest obstacle. "It's not both parties' faults! One party expanded health insurance, all right? Another party destroyed it. One party balanced the budget and created economic prosperity. The other party destroyed it. One party brought about a deal with Iran's nuclear program. Another party destroyed it," he said. "And all these people, go beat a Republican - then come back and I will respect you," Carville said. "Until you do that, I have nothing but contempt for you. And somehow or another, among Democrats, something became more important than winning elections. And that became, 'Oh, I want to feel superior to people.'" Carville sees the far left of the party as responsible for Donald Trump's election and, thus, for the current makeup of the Supreme Court. "None of this would have happened, none of it if it wasn't for the left wing of the Democratic Party," he said. "If you believe that, blame the left wing of the Democratic Party for the catastrophe that we're facing right now. Because as much as any group, it's their fault." Watch: Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 18:05

Trump Admin Subpoenas New York Times Reporters Over Coverage Of New Air Force One The Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas on Friday to four New York Times reporters, ordering them to testify in Manhattan on Wednesday about stories describing security gaps in the new Air Force One. Federal agents showed up at some of the reporters' homes to deliver the subpoenas in person, a detail that has The Times claiming amounts to government intimidation. The four subpoenaed journalists are Julian E. Barnes, Eric Lipton, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt. Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, issued the subpoenas, which offer almost nothing in the way of specifics beyond a request that the reporters testify "in regard to an alleged violation of federal criminal law." The two stories in question ran on consecutive days this week, both built on anonymous sourcing. Wednesday's story claimed Trump left Turkey aboard the older Air Force One because the Secret Service urged the switch as a security precaution. Thursday's follow-up reported that the new Qatari-donated Boeing 747-8 lacks some of the advanced security features found on the older plane, including antimissile capabilities. Those details describe the defensive capabilities of the aircraft that carries the president of the United States, sourced anonymously and published for anyone in the world to read, including people who wish the president harm. "The appearance of federal law enforcement agents on the doorstep of news reporters should shock the conscience of any American who believes in the Constitution and the press freedom it protects," David McCraw, the top newsroom lawyer for the New York Times, said in a Friday evening statement. "Our journalists report the facts and advance the American public's right to know how their government is operating and their taxpayer dollars are being used. This brazen act should be seen as nothing more than an attempt to prevent the public from knowing what is happening in their country by intimidating journalists from doing their jobs." The Times casts the subpoenas as further evidence of a uniquely hostile administration. "Mr. Trump has long been a harsh critic of the news media," the paper wrote. "But in his second term in office, he has moved aggressively to use the immense powers of the federal government in his efforts to attack the press." The article also noted that "both Democratic and Republican administrations have initiated leak investigations into the disclosure of classified information," while adding that "subpoenas aimed at journalists are not common" and that First Amendment advocates warn they can chill newsgathering. Historically, Justice Department leak investigations have generally focused on the government employees or contractors who disclosed classified information rather than the journalists or news organizations that published it. When prosecutors have sought information from journalists, they usually issue subpoenas aimed at identifying sources or gathering evidence, not to punish the act of publication itself. Still, even in those cases, the press has not taken it well. For example, the Obama Justice Department secretly obtained two months of telephone records from more than 20 AP phone lines while investigating a classified leak tied to a foiled terrorist plot. The AP called the seizure a "massive and unprecedented intrusion" into its newsgathering operations, and the move drew criticism from press freedom organizations across the political spectrum. In investigating a leak involving North Korea, Obama's Department of Justice obtained a search warrant for Fox News reporter James Rosen's emails and phone records. To obtain the warrant, an FBI affidavit described Rosen as a possible "aider, abettor and/or co-conspirator" under the Espionage Act, despite Rosen never being charged with a crime. The same administration spent years trying to compel New York Times reporter James Risen to reveal a confidential source in the prosecution of former CIA officer Jeffrey Sterling. The Justice Department addressed the current controversy in a statement posted to X, and its language suggests officials anticipated exactly the reaction The Times delivered. "Every administration has addressed the crime of leaking national security information," the department said. "To the extent that we have to investigate breaches of national security, that's something that we will continue to do. To be clear, reporters are not the targets, those leaking classified information are." The statement continued, "We value and appreciate the important role that the press plays in this country, but DOJ also plays an important role to make sure that the people entrusted with our nation's secrets do what they're supposed to do with that information, which means not sharing classified information. We recognize there may always be natural tension there, but we are not going to ignore the law and stop investigating the people who work in the administration and think it's okay to leak classified information impacting national security." Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 16:55

Inflection Point Overload? By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Inflection Point Overload?  Between 250th Celebrations, heat waves, power failures, and jet lag, I feel more discombobulated than I have in a long time (I do admit that I really liked a sign that I think was in PHX airport just past security – Recombobulation Area). I think that’s what I could use. In any case, last weekend’s ProSec Mid-Year Outlook is worth checking out. We had people send us several variations of the same theme – the concept is catching on for investors and corporations even if the name isn’t (yet).  We also published our positive take on where Compute credit spreads are headed. “Compute” is meant to capture data centers, AI, and the entire ecosystem. We are a bit more focused on the corporate bond side of things, but there are implications and ramifications on the private and project finance/structured side of the world too. We are positive on the sector for a number of reasons and will be expanding on the rationale in the coming days (or weeks, as this week’s schedule of Berlin, Munich, Rome, Dublin, and Belfast may leave little time for typing).  While the Iran conflict may seem to be at an inflection point (the risk of escalation is back on the table), we expect this is just a move to a riskier end of the current status quo, rather than a shift in how markets should be thinking about this conflict. However, it is important to note that the U.S. strategy, with the ceasefire having been declared “over,” is shifting to a priority of re-establishing deterrence. Neil Wiley from our GIG, the former Principal Executive in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that “Iran will calculate that they can strike when it suits, confident that they can comfortably endure whatever comes back at them. In this circumstance, there is fundamentally no deterrence. I am concerned that this is now where we find ourselves. Establishing or re-establishing deterrence requires, ironically, a very disproportionate response.” This is what we have seen this week with the third strikes being launched by the U.S. on Saturday in response to yet another Iranian attack on commercial shipping in the Strait. The U.S. has both shortened the time between Iranian attacks and its strikes and increased the magnitude of its retaliatory strikes in an effort to convince Iran that it is not in its best interest to continue these attacks. We will have to see if this has the intended effect, but the message is clear: the U.S. is now hitting Iran much harder than before for allowing the IRGC to attack ships in the Strait, even if it is just rogue elements of the IRGC conducting these attacks.  Possible Inflection Points  AI spending. This is the most important potential inflection point for the market and the economy. Is it slowing at all? Are there bottlenecks that will slow it, even if it doesn’t want to be slowed? The market seems to oscillate back and forth. While I think the answer remains to be determined, there are many stocks in the sector down well into double digits on a percentage basis in recent weeks, so maybe the market already answered the question and we can move on? We discuss this to some degree in both the Thursday report and last weekend’s report as well.  Earnings. I rarely focus on earnings. About 70% of companies will beat earnings and Wall Street (checks calendar) will act surprised for the 200th quarter running! But this time I will pay more attention than usual. Last quarter, earnings really seemed to be what turned the stock market around. We can argue and nitpick that it was possibly too few sectors that really drove the earnings story (lots participated, but there were some really positive outliers). More recently, a chip company’s earnings call set the stage for the latest rebound in tech as it convincingly laid out the case for strong demand, and more importantly, committed orders for years to come. I’m not about to go all in on understanding the earnings season dynamics, but I will be paying closer attention. It is nice that many companies will combine to determine how good earnings season is for the market (for a few quarters, it all seemed to hang on NVDA).  Russia/Ukraine. Are we nearing an inflection point here? From “how are you dressed in my office” to “sure, we can set up a Patriot missile factory in your country,” the relationship between the President and Zelensky has changed. I can’t remember the last time the President played the “droog” card with Putin. A Clockwork Orange had many “slang” words (Nadsat) based on Russian words (some argue Ukrainian), so it seemed like an appropriate time to insert a reference. In any case, the war is changing. Russia is attacking Ukraine more heavily (dangerous for Ukraine, but likely a sign of things getting worse for Russia). Increasingly, Ukraine is being allowed to follow a military plan along the lines of what our GIG would have drawn up on day 1 (there have been restrictions on what they could do, even when they had the right hardware, on top of lack of access to some hardware). Trump hinted that the U.S. now has mineral stakes in Ukraine during his recent trip. If there is a peace deal of any sort, expect opportunities for investments in Russia and Ukraine. Expect Poland to be a staging ground for many U.S. operations (corporate, investment, and military) into both Ukraine and Russia. Peace doesn’t seem close, but with both sides having more firepower, as well as their own sets of difficulties, maybe we are nearing that time?  Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade.  Both times we had steep declines in the USD vs JPY, we saw U.S. equity markets sell off. The summer of 2024 was linked to the carry trade, while spring of 2025 was more about tariffs and Liberation Day. Is the yen going to continue to decline? By all accounts, betting against the yen, especially after recent attempts at intervention have failed, is a popular trade (dare I say, consensus?). The case for a weaker yen makes a lot of sense, but, as a contrarian, the opportunity for a rapid appreciation seems worth paying attention to, if not betting on.  Crypto and DATCos. Digital Asset Treasury Companies have been both a blessing and a curse to crypto. The companies certainly provided a lot of support on the way up. Some DATCos do a lot with their crypto and are heavily involved in the infrastructure of the space. Others seem to be accumulation vehicles, where their sources of funds to accumulate have grown more complex.  There is no arguing that this administration has been pro-crypto. The enthusiasm post-2024 election is obvious. The naming of the crypto czar and an accommodating regulatory environment helped push crypto to all-time highs. It has been a “dark” time since then. While headlines have generally been positive, crypto has struggled. In recent weeks, much of the selling has been attributed to MSTR selling bitcoin to fund some of its “debt” servicing requirements (really preferreds). The “security” best known as STRC ($STRC on Twitter) has been front and center in recent angst. That security seems to have bottomed as the Strategy team has announced several steps (changing the payment schedule, increasing the dividend, and selling a larger amount of crypto to raise more USD). Have they done enough to alleviate market fears? Is this an inflection point, where the market can move beyond the current needs of some DATCos and focus on potential upside from the administration continuing to embrace crypto? Or are we headed to new lows, despite that support, which would be scary? My expectation is that the bounce we’ve seen will be short-lived, as FOMO in crypto is almost gone (very few advisors not already allocated to crypto seem that excited about the prospect at the moment). And the gambling/get-rich-quick crowd has long since moved from crypto. Watch this market as the next leg is likely to be important for overall market sentiment/cash flows.  Inflation. Our argument for expecting rate cuts before hikes and possibly as soon as September hinges on inflation. Yes, Warsh is watching inflation. But:  Inflation is coming down. The classic “magician” in the room. Warsh is an inflation hawk because he expects inflation to come down.  While we weren’t selected for the data source task force, by all accounts his selections to run the various task forces have been met with approval. Even with the announcement, it might be too early to expect a change in which data is deemed most important by September. Given the people picked, it may take longer to establish the committee and deliver findings than I hoped or expected.  For our view on the path of rates, we need this to be true, and we are betting on it. The market definitely has a different perception (either on the path of inflation or on how much Warsh cares about inflation) than we do.  Bottom Line  While many might hope for a “sleepy” July, given how frantic this year has been, with so many key markets at possible inflection points, it seems like hoping for a dull summer is wishful thinking (for those hoping to take a break from the screens). This might be one of the most consequential earnings seasons that I can remember, let alone for a summer earnings season.  Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 15:10

Clashing Over Saylor, Strategy, And Bitcoin's Biggest Risks Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance Sometimes the best conversations happen after an argument. That's exactly what unfolded this week when I sat down with fund manager Larry Lepard for a discussion that almost never happened. After disagreeing earlier in the week over my criticism of Michael Saylor, Strategy, and the company's evolving Bitcoin strategy, we decided to hash it out publicly in a podcast/debate. Stupid thing to get in the way of a friendship, right? The result wasn't a shouting match. It was a substantive debate between two people who actually agree on more than they disagree. We both remain skeptical of today's euphoric markets. We both think most of crypto outside of Bitcoin is likely worthless. And we both believe Bitcoin deserves to be taken seriously as a macro asset. Where we disagree is on Strategy. My argument was never that the company is headed for an imminent collapse. In fact, I acknowledged that its new Bitcoin monetization framework, dedicated cash reserves, and more disciplined capital allocation likely buy the company significant time while improving financial flexibility. My concern is with management credibility. Earlier this year Michael Saylor insisted Strategy would not become a Bitcoin seller. Today, the company has sold Bitcoin as part of its capital management strategy while shifting its messaging toward liquidity and balance sheet flexibility. I also questioned why "Bitcoin Yield," once heavily promoted by both Saylor and CEO Phong Le, has largely disappeared from public messaging now that the metric has become less favorable. To me, consistency matters, especially when investors are being asked to trust management. Larry's response was that I'm confusing adaptation with deception. He argued management simply adjusted after learning where the market's tolerance for leverage actually sits. Rather than signaling distress, he believes the company's new emphasis on liquidity strengthens the business and reassures investors that dividend obligations remain easily manageable. His broader point was that the balance sheet simply doesn't support the bearish narrative. With roughly $6 billion of debt against tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin holdings, Larry believes Strategy remains well insulated, even if Bitcoin suffers another major drawdown. I pushed back by arguing that the entire bull case rests on assumptions continuing to hold. Bitcoin has never existed alongside equity markets this expensive, nor has there ever been a corporate treasury vehicle as large as Strategy simultaneously serving as one of the market's biggest buyers while now acknowledging it can also become a seller. Leverage changes the equation. Every preferred issue, dividend obligation, and financing decision adds another layer that depends on Bitcoin continuing to appreciate over time. If Bitcoin performs as expected, those obligations remain manageable. If it doesn't, they become increasingly important. Larry countered that I was overly focused on downside scenarios while overlooking Bitcoin's asymmetric upside. He pointed to prior drawdowns, increasing institutional adoption, ETF ownership, and long-term network growth as evidence that Bitcoin continues following the same path it always has. One place we found plenty of common ground was on crypto more broadly. Larry argued most of the crypto ecosystem is ultimately worthless while Bitcoin increasingly resembles digital gold. I largely agreed, though I noted that a collapse elsewhere in crypto could still create broader risk-off pressure that spills over into Bitcoin and highly levered companies like Strategy. The biggest takeaway wasn't who won the debate. It was that markets need more conversations like this. Healthy skepticism shouldn't automatically be confused with pessimism, and pointing out risks isn't the same as predicting disaster. Larry remains convinced Strategy is one of the market's best long-term opportunities.I remain convinced that management credibility, leverage, and changing narratives deserve scrutiny. Reasonable people can disagree. That's exactly what made the conversation worth having. Now you can watch the full debate 100% free and decide for yourself. (WATCH THE FULL DEBATE, 100% FREE, HERE).  -- QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets. And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important. Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 14:00