Zerohedge

U.S. Fertilizer Prices Erase War Spike, But El Nino Keeps Food Inflation Risk Elevated The good news for US farmers is that urea fertilizer prices have returned to pre-US-Iran conflict levels after spiking from late February through mid-April. This is great news for farmers, though they are not out of the woods, as drought continues to plague some of the nation’s top agricultural belts. Prices for granular urea in New Orleans have slumped 36% since peaking at $710 per short ton in mid-April. Spot prices are currently $453, back to pre-conflict levels. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts noted that a combination of oversupply and weak demand is pressuring US urea spot prices, which have fallen below those seen in more import-dependent markets such as Brazil and Egypt. The reversal in nitrogen fertilizer prices benefits farmers while also reducing part of the windfall enjoyed by CF Industries and Nutrien. Shares of CF Industries and Nutrien are both down about 20%, closely tracking urea spot prices. Urea was among the crop nutrients most affected by the Gulf-area energy shock, with nearly half of global exports originating in the region. There have been concerns about a global food shortage that could emerge later in the year. Drought concerns still plague top agricultural belts in the US. Meanwhile, on the otherside of the world: UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia One troubling development in food has been the surge in rice prices, with the regional Asian benchmark rising 20% in May, the largest monthly increase since 2008. It is important to closely monitor global food prices. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 14:00

Hakeem Jeffries Humiliated After Trump Attack Backfires Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) tried to score points off Donald Trump's appearance at Madison Square Garden for Game 3 of the NBA Finals. And, oh boy, did it backfire spectacularly. Monday's press conference gave the House Minority Leader a stage, and he used it to attack Trump’s planned appearance at the game and to question whether Trump was even a true Knicks fan. "I think Knicks fans just want to enjoy Game 3, the first home [NBA Finals] game that we've had in 27 years," Jeffries said. "But it also is not clear to me that Donald Trump is a big Knicks fan. I mean, does this guy even know the difference between Karl Rove and Karl Anthony Towns? I don't think so. He's just injecting himself into the NBA Finals because he always has to bring the MAGA circus into town, and that's unfortunate." The problem with Jeffries’ claim is that Trump is, in fact, a longtime Knicks fan, and there is photographic and video evidence of Trump attending Knicks games going back decades. NEW YORK - CIRCA 1993: Donald Trump looks on during an New York Knicks NBA Basketball game circa 1993 at Madison Square Garden in the Manhattan Borough of New York City. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images) New York, N.Y.: Donald Trump attends the New York Knicks game with… https://t.co/sYd9Pka3zX pic.twitter.com/y0dTsgTwUf — Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) June 8, 2026 pic.twitter.com/EAWnPIxKKW — Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) June 8, 2026 pic.twitter.com/PDHOspenZI nah he’s a not Knick Fan? 😂. “Dime Store Obama” is the big Knick Fan that’s never been seen at a single game…. — Louis Buchalter (@lepke2112) June 8, 2026 Heck, even CNN mocked the idea that Trump isn’t a true New York sports fan: Trump is the BOSS 🏀 pic.twitter.com/2Ihwx0Ompw — Politikal Kat-Tales (@PolitiKatTales) June 8, 2026 Then NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, not exactly a Trump surrogate, finished it off entirely. "I've been with the league for a long time," Silver said. "I ran NBA Entertainment years ago. He did an I love game spot with us. He had courtside seats. He was here all the time. He was at the draft. So he's a genuine Knicks fan." .@NBA Commissioner Adam Silver: President Trump was a fixture at Madison Square Garden. He had courtside seats. He was here all the time, he was at Drafts — so he's a genuine @nyknicks fan. pic.twitter.com/Cxb1fU8cfM — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 9, 2026 A genuine Knicks fan. Certified by the commissioner of the NBA. What’s the point of even questioning Trump’s fandom? It’s stupid, and Democrats only embarrass themselves when they try. Heck, it was just a couple of weeks ago that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) set this same trap for herself when Trump's plans to attend the game were first made public. She posed what she thought was a clever trivia challenge. "I'd ask him to name the starting lineup of the 1993 championship team and see how he does," Hochul said. “I’d ask him to name the starting lineup of the 1993 Championship team and see how he does." New York Governor Kathy Hochul forgot that the Knicks last won in 1973 when asked about Donald Trump's Knicks fandom. 😬 pic.twitter.com/ouFbEiGYQE — New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) May 27, 2026 The Knicks didn't win the championship in 1993. Their last title came in 1973. Hochul's gotcha question exposed a gap in her own knowledge of the franchise she was pretending to defend. Democrats questioning anyone's sports credibility is well-trodden comedy territory. In 2004, Democrat presidential nominee John Kerry called the Green Bay Packers' home stadium "Lambert Field" instead of Lambeau Field. He also named his favorite Red Sox slugger as "Manny Ortez," an apparent mashup of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Kerry was performing fandom, and it showed. That's the pattern here. The far left can't accept that Trump is genuine about much of anything, so the instinct is to attack first and check facts later. Jeffries grabbed a talking point and humiliated himself in the process. And in the end, was any of this worth it? Trump went to a basketball game. Attacking him for it was always going to be a losing play. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 13:40

New Clues In Apple's iOS 27 Hints At Upcoming Foldable iPhone Launch Software researcher M1Astra shared with Bloomberg new clues embedded deep within Apple's iOS 27 developer beta that suggest the long-awaited foldable iPhone remains on track for a September debut, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. "Apple's iOS 27 and related software updates offer the clearest public signs yet of the company's upcoming foldable iPhone, revealing references to folding hardware and new features designed for larger, more flexible displays," Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman wrote on X, refering to M1Astra's findings that show within iOS 27 developer beta, there are code strings related to determining whether a device is folded or unfolded. also a new MG key to get the total count of built-in displays pic.twitter.com/0uhik5DWRO — sam henri gold (@samhenrigold) June 8, 2026 Files inside the first iOS 27 developer beta include references to "foldState," "mechanicalAngleDegrees," and "angleDegrees," suggesting the iOS can detect whether a device is folded, unfolded, or partially opened around a hinge. Other repair-related code mentions a secondary display, a second cover glass, and additional light sensors. New in macOS 27: You can now resize iPhone mirroring to look like an iPad display pic.twitter.com/8rVy7aTCYd — Aaron (@aaronp613) June 8, 2026 The clues come as Bloomberg previously reported that the foldable iPhone remains on track for a September launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup, with pricing expected to start around $2,000. This would be the most important iPhone design shift in the nearly 20-year-old iPhone lineup. However, Apple is late to the game. The first available foldable smartphone with a flexible display was the Royole FlexPai, announced in October 2018 and shipped in December 2018. By early 2019, Samsung had released the Galaxy Fold, and other brands were launching their foldable models. On Monday, Apple unveiled Siri AI and the next generation of Apple Intelligence during its Worldwide Developers Conference. Our coverage: Apple's Long-Awaited AI Siri Fails To Impress As Shares Pump Then Dump During WWDC Goldman analyst Michael Ng has provided clients with the key takeaways from WWDC: We attended AAPL's WWDC keynote and investor event at Apple Park in Cupertino, CA on June 8th, where the company announced key features for iOS 27, Apple Intelligence, and Siri AI. AAPL was down 1% on the day, in line with AAPL's average day-of WWDC performance, with announcements around Apple Intelligence & Siri AI largely in line with expectations. We viewed the announcements as positive with visibility into Siri AI timing, confidence in the completeness of features, and early signs of monetization through iCloud+ subscriptions and product refresh. First, Siri AI will be available in beta this fall in English. The keynote and follow-up presentations that we attended were notable in that Siri AI demonstrations all appeared to be utilizing real features (e.g., the presentation we attended included a live demo), suggesting to us that Siri AI features are largely complete and likely will hit key timelines. Second, rate limits should drive monetization opportunities. Some features, including image generation, have daily usage limits because they rely on powerful server models. Users will be able to get increased access through most iCloud+ subscription plans, which should drive direct monetization for Apple Intelligence. Third, the most advanced AI features announced today will require 12GB memory, driving a refresh opportunity. Features including expressive voices and more advanced dictation will require 12GB memory which is included in iPhone Air, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, iPad (M4), and select Mac (M3). We think that will help drive a multi-year product refresh cycle, particularly as AI features continue to improve and demand compounds. Over time, we view that continued iteration of integrated AI feature releases should (a) support longer-term demand for product offerings via installed base growth and (b) support longer-term Services growth via monetization of new first-party and third-party apps as well as greater iCloud storage demand with greater personal data & content created with AI features. 1. Siri AI & iOS 27 Fall 2026 launch details: iOS 27 will be available in the fall for iPhone 11 and later, with Apple Intelligence available for iPhones 15 Pro/Pro Max and later. Siri AI will be available in beta later this year for users with devices set to English, with support for additional languages expanding over time. Apple noted that Siri AI availability for iOS 27 & iPadOS27 will be delayed in the EU due to the Digital Markets App (DMA). Additionally, Siri AI & other new Apple Intelligence features should be delayed in China as Apple works through regulatory requirements. Separately, AAPL's most powerful on-device AI model and its features (e.g., expressive Siri AI voice, advanced dictation) will be only be available for devices with at least 12 GB of unified memory including the iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max, iPhone Air, iPads M4 & later, and Macs M3 or later. 2. Siri AI features in line with expectations: First, Siri AI will have greater personal context awareness as it draws from on-screen and historical personal data across first-party apps (e.g., Photos, Messages, Mail, Music), third party apps, the web, and Visual Intelligence (via device camera) to inform its answers & action execution for queries & requests. Second, Siri AI will allow users to personalize Siri's voice for pace, as well as expressivity (for devices with at least 12 GB of unified memory). Third, Siri AI will have a dedicated app from which users can recall and continue prior conversations. Fourth, Apple demonstrated Siri AI's ability to engage across a user's complete device ecosystem (e.g., Visual Intelligence identifying nutrition facts for food captured on-camera, splitting bills via receipts, creating an event from a flyer to the Calendar app, identifying the location of a photo posted on social media). 3. New Apple Intelligence features for iOS27 announced, also as expected per our WWDC preview: First, Safari will use Apple Intelligence to (a) create tab groups by topic, (b) monitor and set alerts for changes on internet pages a user wants to track, and (c) create custom extensions via description. Second, Apple Intelligence will introduce suggested actions across apps (e.g., add details from Messages to Reminders, updating meeting details on calendar invite by event description). Third, Apple Intelligence will introduce new photo editing features including (a) the Extend tool (to expand images) and (b) the Reframe tool (to shift the perspective of the camera. 4. Platform improvements to personalize design and improve performance. First, iOS 27 will allow users to adjust the strength of the Liquid Glass display (ultra clear to fully tinted). Second, through improved CPU scheduling, iOS 27 should improve performance across Apple products (e.g,. Apps launching more quickly, faster AirDrop, more seamless transitions from cellular to WiFi networks). Third, users will be able to include Android users within iCloud Shared albums. Apple shares on Monday wiped out any gains and closed down 1%, in line with the stock's average WWDC-day performance over the years. Shares are lower in cash on Tuesday. Professional subscribers can read the full Apple WWDC note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 13:20

China's Oil Imports Plummet To Eight-Year Low Confirming our recent reporting on China's oil demand collapse, crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017 because of the price spike resulting from the Persian Gulf tanker traffic disruption, plunging refinery margins (due to price ceilings imposed by Beijing), of a slowing economy and the rapid slowdown in the economy.  The May total stood at 33 million barrels, or 7.8 million barrels daily, Bloomberg reported, citing Chinese customs data. This is roughly a 30% drop vs the average daily import rate of 11.6 million barrels last year. As previously noted, refinery run rates are down as well, as are fuel exports, with Beijing careful to make sure there is enough diesel and gasoline for the domestic market. All this is happening as the latest batch of Chinese data was "shockingly bad", promptly fears of a China hard landing. As OilPrice notes, the news will likely push oil prices lower as China’s reduced appetite for imported crude is widely seen by traders as a cap on international prices. Demand for oil in China, however, has not fallen particularly. The only reason the country’s refiners can afford to slash imports is the substantial inventory cushion available, estimated at over 1 billion barrels, which we said three months ago is the biggest wildcard in the Iran war oil price shock. However, this cushion is not infinite and, as suggested recently by analysts, China will at some point start to ramp up imports. One relevant question: what is China's pace of SPR drain if any. Recall for the past year Beijing was adding about 500-700K in daily SPR stockpiles; total is said to be ~1.4 billion barrels. China can avoid any Gulf imports for months and drain its SPR instead. — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2026 China’s subdued oil buying from abroad “represents one of the largest offsets to the shock, second only to Saudi rerouting flows and larger than coordinated SPR releases from the U.S., Europe, and Japan,” Societe Generale commodity analysts said earlier this week. However, strategic and commercial oil inventories need replenishing at some point, and when that point is reached and the war is still not over, we are likely to see higher oil prices again. In its lenghty weekly note, JPM commodity analysts agreed. ING commodity analysts made a similar point last week. “Sizeable inventories in the lead-up to the war have provided a buffer for the market,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote on Friday. “This buffer is shrinking with every passing day. With the seasonally stronger summer still ahead of us, we could see demand grow by more than 3m b/d quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. The pace of inventory declines will only intensify through the July-September period.” Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 12:40

Jefferies: "Turns Out, We Weren't Bullish Enough On Copper" "Turns out, we weren't bullish enough on copper," Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note to clients, marking a notable shift from one of Wall Street's most seasoned metal voices. LaFemina joined Jefferies in 2011 after more than a decade covering metals and mining at Lehman Brothers and Barclays, lending weight to his view that the explosive growth in AI data center buildouts, power grid and infrastructure upgrades (a theme he calls "powering up America"), and tight supply are creating structurally higher prices for copper. LaFemina raised his 2030 target and now expects copper to average $8 per pound, or $17,636 a ton. COMEX copper last traded around $6.34 a pound, while LME copper was near $13,583 a ton. On a longer timeframe, the LME copper chart suggests the $10,000 level was the breakout zone, further supporting LaFemina's 2030 target given the current supply-tightening backdrop. "Turns out, we weren't bullish enough on copper," LaFemina said, adding, "We now have the highest copper price forecast on the Street as we see strong US industrial demand and still tight supply." He noted that the data center and power infrastructure buildout should drive a meaningful acceleration in metals demand, with copper and aluminum prices able to rise much higher before weighing on the broader economy. Goldman recently estimated that AI capital expenditures by hyperscalers will soar to $800 billion this year. The report can be found here. In recent weeks, Goldman raised its year-end copper price target, and HSBC warned (report found here) that commodities face a "super-squeeze." HSBC analysts told clients last week that "metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand." Separately, Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham explained that one of the core issues with the copper market right now is supply: Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028. At the same time, Waltham said stronger-than-expected U.S. copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-U.S. market: Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year. The combination of soft mine supply, U.S. stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts: We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610). She outlined three price scenarios for copper: 1. Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed for Longer: While we would expect limited impact on the global copper balance as the demand hit from lower economic growth is largely offset by lower copper supply due to sulfur shortages, a substantial pullback in global risk appetite could push the LME price down to its fundamental support level at ~$12,600 in H2 2026, before resuming an upward trend. 2. US Copper Tariff Announced for January 2027: If a US copper tariff is announced prospectively in June 2026, to start in January 2027, we would expect US copper imports to accelerate in H2 2026 (vs. our base case of a slowdown in imports), tightening the ex-US balance and raising prices to over $14,000 in H2 2026. However, we would expect prices to retreat in 2027 as imports stop once the tariff is imposed. 3. Announcement of No Copper Tariff: A definitive decision against the tariff would reduce the size of our ex-US deficit forecast in 2026 and push the ex-US market back into surplus in 2027 as imports fall to a negligible level. In this scenario, we would expect the price to fall to an average of $12,800/t in 2027. View scenarios here: Beyond Jefferies, HSBC, and Goldman, JPMorgan analysts have also told clients that the copper upcycle is being driven by a tightening supply backdrop, accelerating power-grid investment, AI data center demand, and broader industrial electrification. Taken together, some of Wall Street's top metals desks are increasingly converging on the view that copper is entering a structurally tighter supply regime that will support a sustained break above $14,000 a ton on the LME. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 12:00

Voter Fraud: Los Angeles County Woman Pleads Guilty To Paying People In Skid Row To Vote via The Epoch Times, LOS ANGELES - A woman who worked as a longtime signature collector for ballot initiatives pleaded guilty on June 8 to paying homeless people in Los Angeles' Skid Row and elsewhere $2 or $3 to register to vote. An "I Voted" sign points to a Vote Center in Los Angeles on June 1, 2026. Mario Tama/Getty Images Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong, 64, of Marina del Rey, also known as "Anika," entered a plea to one count of paying another person to register to vote, a federal charge that carries a penalty of up to five years behind bars. Sentencing was scheduled for Aug. 31. According to her plea agreement, for nearly 20 years, Armstrong periodically worked as a "petition circulator." In that role, she was paid by coordinators to collect voter signatures on official petitions that qualify initiatives, referendums and recalls for California state ballots. Prosecutors said Armstrong drove around the Los Angeles area to find registered voters to sign the petitions. After gathering enough signatures, Armstrong returned the petitions to her coordinators, who then paid her a set amount for each registered voter's signature. The amount she was paid varied depending on the specific ballot initiative. Because her coordinators only paid for signatures attributable to registered voters, Armstrong endeavored to ensure the people who signed her petitions were registered voters, court papers show. Armstrong admitted soliciting signatures in Skid Row, a convenient place for the defendant to collect signatures because of its high concentration of people in a relatively small area who were willing to sign petitions in exchange for cash. Armstrong regularly paid amounts between $2 and $3 to induce people to sign her petitions, officials said. Prosecutors said some homeless people did not have an address to put on the forms, so on occasion, Armstrong provided her own former address in Los Angeles to write on the registration form. Such registration forms simultaneously registered an individual to vote in California elections and in federal elections. "This is not an allegation, this is not a theory, this is an example of admitted voter fraud," First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said when Armstrong was charged. "We're going to aggressively prosecute voter fraud." A video shot by conservative media figure James O'Keefe and reposted by an account called "Real America's Voice" showed a woman handing cash to a homeless person. In a post on social media, O'Keefe said his video led to Armstrong being charged. Essayli said on June 5 that his office has "multiple" probes underway into alleged voting fraud. While declining to provide any specifics, he pointed to the Armstrong case as an example of the sort of thing he is investigating. "Yes, there is evidence of election fraud in California," he said. The comments came one day after President Donald Trump publicly accused Democrats of engaging in election fraud in California, pointing to the legally established mail-in voting process. Essayli also said his office is working with Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon in an effort to audit the state's voter rolls. Essayli said previously that Armstrong's arrest coincided with arguments in the Department of Justice's (DOJ) appeal of the dismissal of a lawsuit over voter registration records. The DOJ sued California Secretary of State Shirley Weber last year, demanding the state hand over the unredacted voter file, which includes registered voters' full names, residential addresses, driver's license numbers, and the last four digits of their Social Security numbers. The DOJ claimed it had the right to access the data under powers granted by the Civil Rights Act of 1960, the Help America Vote Act, and the National Voter Registration Act. In January, a Santa Ana federal judge dismissed the case after finding that the DOJ's request for the information violates federal privacy laws. The defense also argued that the Trump administration wants to use the data to help enforce its immigration policy. Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 11:40

Gold & Silver: From Pullback To Perfect Setup Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold, With gold and silver having fallen by greater than 20% from their January highs of 2026, some have argued the gold trade is over. In fact, and as explained below, it is only just beginning. Trading vs. Investing Such misunderstandings are nothing new, as the difference between precious metal trading and precious metal investing is nothing new. Nor is there anything new about top-down misinformation and misdirection given to Main Street when it comes to understanding gold and silver. Traders, both skilled and unskilled, tend to track near-term signals for immediate rates of return (long or short) while longer-term investors typically watch history, debt cycles and currency debasement with patient detachment and a steady eye toward wealth preservation. Such patience has served the longer-term, wealth-preservation-focused investors with greater returns (and calm) through periods of headline flux and geopolitical gyrations. Since 2000, gold has outperformed the S&P, and when compared against the major global paper currencies (down 94% since 2000), gold (up 1580% since 2000) has demonstrably outperformed fiat “money.” Longer-term investors see this larger picture and trend. They don’t book losses in pullbacks because they understand the greater direction of the precious metal ball in a debt-saturated and hence currency-debasement playing field. Comfort in Historical Fundamentals In short, the fundamentals of history, economics and hence currency debasement confirm a clear pattern by desperately broke(n) nations to inflate their way out of debt at the expense of their currencies. This makes the longer, anti-fiat direction for gold and silver almost too obvious, even in times of inevitable price retracements in the metals. Historical cycles and longer-term calm, however, are easily forgotten or ignored in times of crisis. Investors somehow think “this time is different,” or, even worse, they don’t think about history at all. Patterns: From Crisis to Gold Highs But for those looking for signals, as well as sanity confirmation, it’s worth remembering that in every prior geopolitical and/or oil crisis (the OPEC embargo of 73, the Iranian Revolution of 79, the Gulf War of 91, the 9-11 disaster of 2001 or, more recently, the Ukraine/Russia crisis of 2022) there are clear patterns eerily similar to the current crisis surrounding the Iranian “conflict.” Specifically, we are living within a template by which a geopolitical crisis sends the oil price up, which is followed by a rise in “inflation expectations,” which in turn means central banks like the Fed can’t cut rates, and soon thereafter the market, rather than central bankers, sets the rates. This explains why yields on the US 10Y Treasury Bond (the true cost of Uncle Sam’s hideous bar tab) have risen by 75 basis points despite no active rate hikes by a Fed which couldn’t afford rate hikes even if they wanted them. In this same template, as yields rise, investors typically follow the street’s traditional (yet now grossly mistaken) view that a yielding bond (from a broke issuer) is still better than a yield-less bar of gold. What typically follows is a herd-like move to bonds whose “positive” nominal yields are measured in increasingly debased currencies and negative real returns when measured against actual rather than mis-reported inflation. The ironies do abound… But what fifty years of crisis patterns have also told us—at least for those paying attention—is that gold tends to drop early in every crisis only to then recover at newer all-time-highs as the crisis plays out. During the 1973 OPEC embargo, for example, gold would dip and then participate in an historical, 4-digit upside in the seven years that followed. After a temporary retracement during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, gold rose by 90% in one year, and saw double-digit upside within weeks of the 1991 Gulf War. We saw similar dip-to-high surges in gold following the 9-11 tragedy. And as for the 2022 fiasco in Ukraine, gold broke 2000 not long after the crisis grew from threat to now ongoing reality. Patterns in Moving Averages But for those who still feel that history is no guide to future rhyming patterns, let us give equal respect to some of the key technical signals for the metals. In fact, these signals—most notably from the 200-day moving averages in gold and silver—are themselves just historical signals of a different flavor. More importantly, they are indicators which signal a rare opportunity in a time of crisis. Looking at both gold and silver, for example, each metal has fallen below its 200-day moving average. This is a powerfully bullish rather than bearish signpost. Silver Signals The last time silver fell below this average was in April of 2025, just before the metal, then trading at $27, ripped north at historical multiples and new highs. Prior to 2025, we saw similar bullish signals beneath silver’s 200-day line in 2020 (when silver was at $11) and in 2022 (when silver was at $17). Gold Signals Equally bullish technical signals are ringing from gold’s recent dip beneath its 200-day moving average. The last times we saw gold below this line it was trading in the $1500-$1600 range (2022) or the $1800 range (autumn of 2023). Thereafter, gold went 100% north 12 months out. From Pullback to Historical Set-Up Taken together, these fundamental as well as technical signals combine within a current as well as historical context which makes the current pullback in the metals a near perfect set-up rather than break-up for gold and silver. In fact, current conditions for the precious metals in 2026 are even more favorable than the prior patterns of the 1970’s discussed above. In 1973, for example, U.S. public debt was in the $500B, not $39T, range. Today, interest expense alone on American IOUs is twice the size of total US public debt in 1973. Think about that for a second. At debt this high and unsustainable, the debasement trade is no longer a meme; it’s a fat pitch. The Structural Bid Few Understand In the 1970’s, moreover, central banks around the world were selling gold. As of this writing, and despite recent forced gold sales out of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, central banks (from Poland to Asia) are net-buyers of gold. In fact, since the USA weaponized the world reserve currency in 2022, central bank gold purchasing has increased by 5X. These signals from the world’s central banks are screaming signposts of a structural bid in the metals which most retail investors (who were spooked out of the trade at lows after buying at tops) are tragically missing. Even the commercial banks have understood the patterns for gold after an oil crisis, and their price targets for the metal remain nearly twice current price levels. Thus, whether drawing from historical patterns or from moving-day-average signals, the question going forward is simple: Do you trust King Dollar or a “pet rock”? Crowns of gold or crowns of paper? Time will tell, and time is clearly on the side of precious metals. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:50

Will Saylor's Latest Bitcoin Buys "Hold The Line" Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance Over the weekend, I posted a prediction on X after Strategy’s sale of 32 bitcoin helped tanked the market last week. I wrote: “Prediction: Saylor just bought way more than 32 BTC and will disclose it to ‘prove’ it was just an experiment & everything is really fine. He looks clever for buying 10x what he sold 30% lower for 24-48 hours. Then, the market sticks it up his ass anyway and crashes to $40K.” Lo and behold, Monday morning, we got the announcement: Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. To me, the headline isn’t really about 1,550 BTC. The headline is that Michael Saylor felt compelled to immediately reassert the bullish narrative after the controversy surrounding Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC. For years, Saylor’s image has been built on a simple message: never sell. The moment that narrative cracked, even slightly, Bitcoin bears smelled blood. I feel like this purchase is an attempt to restore confidence. Not confidence in Strategy’s balance sheet. Confidence in the bitcoin story. And if it was done by selling MSTR shares at a discount, does it not defeat the purpose of the company? Peter Schiff immediately pointed out his take on the awkwardness of the situation: “As damage control, @Saylor just announced $MSTR bought 1,550 BTC for $101 million while also increasing its U.S. dollar reserves by $100 million. If MSTR sold stock at a discount, that diluted Bitcoin per share. This doesn’t prove MSTR can sell Bitcoin, but that it can’t.” Whether you agree with Schiff or not, he’s highlighting the exact issue Saylor is trying to address: perception. The market now has a simple question in front of it. Did Saylor just successfully reassure everyone that nothing has changed? Or did he just spend $101 million trying to stop a narrative that is already spreading? That’s why Bitcoin’s reaction from here matters far more than the purchase itself. BTC is stabilizing around $63,000 now. If it can hold this area and grind higher, Saylor’s buy looks like a perfectly timed show of confidence. The story becomes: “See? The sale was nothing. The panic was overblown. Strategy bought more. Everything is fine.” But if Bitcoin rolls over anyway? Then we can start talking about what happens when the proverbial turd meets the oscillating wind device. If BTC is trading $40,000-$50,000 a few weeks from now, nobody will remember the press release. They’ll remember that Strategy possibly sold equity, bought Bitcoin at $65k, and failed to stop the market from falling. 🔥 80% Off If You Subscribe Today. This coupon allows for 80% off of annual subscriptions and results in a 85% savings over paying the monthly rate for a subscription to the blog. You keep the discounted rate for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber.: Get 80% off forever And importantly, regardless of what happens, the buyer from this weekend is now out of the way again. The announcement creates a temporary psychological floor. Once the purchase is complete, however, the market loses that source of demand. The only thing left is whether organic buyers are willing to step in. Meanwhile, equity futures are higher now on renewed ceasefire hopes. Risk assets are getting a tailwind this morning. If futures stay green and Bitcoin can’t rally, that’s notable. If futures reverse lower and Bitcoin follows them into the red, that could be an extremely ominous sign that the market, after Friday’s wreckage, has possibly put in a top. If you ask me, this buy wasn’t really about acquiring another 1,550 BTC, it was about protecting the narrative that Bitcoin isn’t breaking down. And now the market gets to decide whether that narrative still works. I’ve never been happier to be done actively trading and just sitting back and watching this freak show unfold like I’m watching Love Island or some other reality TV show trash. QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets. And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.       Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:20

Trump-Netanyahu "Differences": A Good Cop-Bad Cop Routine By Michael Every of Rabobank As You Were... But As Who Was?  Yesterday nearly saw a full restart of the Israel-Iran war, apparently pulled back from the brink by intervention from President Trump. After yet another Middle East rollercoaster for markets it’s now ‘as you were’, with oil --so everything else-- little changed. The larger issue behind that pricing, however, is the key question - ‘As who was?’ Iran set up its proxy network, centered on terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, to protect itself: if Israel attacked it, Hezbollah would attack Israel. However, Tehran now has to attack Israel, with counterattacks on it in response, to defend its ‘shield’. That’s a huge Iranian strategic setback. As such, Tehran is trying to tie Israel vs. Hezbollah to itself vs. the US to divide the US from Israel, which now have different needs: a deal vs. finishing the job militarily or via regime change. That dynamic has huge implications for when and how this war ends, so for energy, so for markets. While Israel and Iran say they will stop their attacks, Israeli PM Netanyahu last night gave a public address where he stated: “Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever – but our battle against them is still not finished. In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose a new equation upon us… an equation I find intolerable and unacceptable. They thought they would fire at Israel from Lebanese territory and from Iran – and we would not act. That did not happen, and it will not happen. Not on my watch!... At the moment, we are holding our fire, because after we struck the terror regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. In the event that Iran makes the mistake of resuming attacks on us – we will respond with overwhelming force.” Moreover, Israel will hit Hezbollah in Beirut if it fires at Israel from south Lebanon, which Iran says is a red line that will trigger more attacks on the Jewish state, restarting this war. If Iran tells Hezbollah to ceasefire, markets can relax; If not, and Israel hits Hezbollah, Iran has to decide if it wants to fire at Israel - and restart the war; If Trump forces Israel to hold back vs. Hezbollah, Iran will have linked the two fronts and divided the US and Israel – which likely sees more war. After all, Israel’s 1948 War of Independence, its 1967 Six-Day War, its 1981 attack on Iraq’s nuclear programme, and its 2007 strike against Syria’s nuclear programme all took place against US wishes. To expect otherwise this time is unwise. Indeed, Trump-Netanyahu differences could be a good cop-bad cop routine to allow the US to push for a deal while Israel does the fighting. In the background, Yemen’s Houthis claim they will restart a maritime blockade of Israel in the Red Sea, which was applied far more broadly the last time they put it in place. Obviously, that can threaten cargo and energy flows at this juncture, as a US Navy F-18 struck and disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman and the EU hit Iran’s Navy… with sanctions. In short, this crisis is far from over, even as Trump says “total victory” will be declared in the next two weeks as Iranian negotiators are “willing to give us everything,” and VP Vance added that the deal being discussed was “a home run” for the US. Yet the inside baseball question remains which negotiators the US is talking to given local reports that contact has been lost with Supreme Leader Khamenei Jr. and another that IRGV leader Vahidi was killed in a recent Israeli strike. Elsewhere in geopolitics, Berlin says the Franco-German fighter jet project is dead, a major blow to future pan-European defence plans; Switzerland is weighing a Franco-Italian alternative to US air defences given a 5-year wait for the latter; and a French fighter jet shot down a suspected Russian drone in Latvian airspace. That’s as Germany claimed it’s ready to take the reins from the US in talks with Putin despite Russia rejecting Ukrainian and European peace initiatives, saying instead that the battlefield will decide the war – but as Moscow pauses its CCTV systems after Israel hacked Iran’s to target its Supreme Leader. Back in the UK, a secret camera was found in the ceiling panel of the room in a sensitive government building where the decision was made to approve the new Chinese embassy. Showing how lines on the map can move as the driver of lines on the screen, the US is considering buying the Chagos Islands to take control of the strategic UK airbase on Diego Garcia; Mauritius, whom the UK is controversially trying to hand the islands to, is today demanding they get them ASAP to avoid that outcome. China’s Xi Jinping, on a state visit, pledged “unwavering” support for North Korea, making some things crystal clear, as Bloomberg publishes its estimates for the economic damage from a war over Taiwan: $10 trillion, apparently. Which justifies or incentivizes doing what as insurance? In LatAm, Peru is set for lengthy vote count as its presidential race is still too close to call, and Colombia will see a presidential runoff ahead following the leftist Cepeda’s first round election loss. In geoeconomics, the US added Alibaba, BYD and other Chinese tech champions to its military company blacklist. That’s as Anthropic's Mythos can reportedly now exploit new software flaws in mere hours and OpenAI gets ready for its IPO, Trump is mirroring Bernie Sanders in arguing the state should get stakes in AI giants - and presumably not just in military and security areas but across the economic spectrum. To say we are moving the political-economy Overton Window is an understatement: at this stage are there any actual windows left? Indeed, could the walls and the roof fall in on conventional analysis using conventional wisdom? The European press talks of how ‘China is killing Europe’s chemicals industry. Brussels wants to intervene’ and France’s Macron is reportedly to court China to get them to address trade imbalances – offering and threatening what exactly? Indonesia is also weighing export rule exemptions for commodity traders to try to calm local markets after the recent de facto state control of that key area of the economy. At the same time, Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee was declared an unlawful “tax” by a US judge, as were his tariffs of course, which will now be appealed (was the lower via fee also a tax? If not, why not?). As you were then… but as who was? And what will we be soon – besides confused? Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:45

House Report Finds Minnesota Officials Ignored Fraud To Avoid Racism Accusations A House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform report released Monday paints a devastating picture of both Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and state Attorney General Keith Ellison, finding that they both knew about widespread fraud in state social services programs and failed to act. The report centers on the Feeding Our Future scandal, in which a Minnesota-based nonprofit systematically exploited federal COVID-19 relief funds intended to provide meals to children. So far, more than 60 people have already been found guilty of fraud in connection with the scheme, the majority of whom are of Somali descent. Some defendants used stolen taxpayer money to buy luxury goods, while others funneled proceeds to a radical Islamic terrorist group operating in Somalia. At least $300 million in federal child nutrition funds were placed at serious risk, and approximately $9 billion in Medicaid losses resulted from the broader fraud environment state officials allowed to fester. "Fraud warnings were elevated to the most senior levels of the Minnesota state government, meaningful corrective action was delayed or avoided, and payments continued long after credible signs of fraud emerged," the report states. Senior officials in Walz's office and Ellison's office knew about systemic fraud concerns as early as 2019 within the Minnesota Department of Human Services and, by April 2020, within the state Department of Education, the report says, directly contradicting Walz's and Ellison's public statements. This matters because both men held legal authority to cut off payments to fraudulent operators. Neither exercised it, even though Walz was aware of the suspected fraud in Feeding Our Future by 2020, and the payments continued. The fraudsters didn't just know how to exploit the system for financial gain; they knew how to blackmail state officials to keep their scheme going. When workers inside the Department of Education tried to audit child care and nutrition programs, providers accused them of racism. The accusation worked. Officials backed down despite holding evidence that funds were being fraudulently diverted. Dozens of human services department staff were warned, explicitly, that raising fraud concerns would get them labeled as racists and damage the government's reputation. Some were pulled into supervisory meetings. Others were excluded from the very internal discussions about the fraud they had flagged. And the directive to look the other way from the fraud came from the top down. One Minnesota Department of Education official who first contacted the FBI about Feeding Our Future told investigators her supervisors pressured her to stop investigating "at every turn" and that she got her "hand slapped" for continuing to look into it. Staff feared reporting fraud to the Homeland Security Office of Inspector General because that agency would notify the Commissioner or HR, who would then retaliate against them. The internal culture the Walz administration built was one in which accountability was the threat, not the fraud. Rather than combating the fraud, the Walz administration spent resources monitoring employees to keep them in line. The priority, the report shows, was getting ahead of press coverage about the fraud, not stopping it. "Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison are responsible for one of the most stunning oversight failures this Committee has ever examined," Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said in a statement. "Today's report is the culmination of months of investigative work and reveals hard evidence showing how the Walz Administration failed to stop widespread fraud, allowing criminals to enrich themselves at the expense of American taxpayers. Billions of dollars were stolen because Minnesota state leaders turned a blind eye to rampant fraud and retaliated against state employees who dared to raise concerns. It is now clear the Walz Administration chose to protect the system rather than protect the taxpayer." The report makes clear that this fraud wasn't some bureaucratic mistake or a problem that went unnoticed. Senior officials were repeatedly warned about what was happening. They chose not to act in order to preserve their political relationship with Minnesota's Somali community, manage the fallout, and sideline the employees who were raising red flags and trying to stop it. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:00