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Bank Of America, Citigroup May Launch Credit Cards With 10% Rate Once again Trump's brash negotiating style appears to be paying off. Two weeks after Trump shocked the world by demanding lenders cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, Bank of America and Citigroup are exploring options to do just that in an attempt to placate the president. Bloomberg reports that both banks are mulling offering cards with a 10% rate cap as one potential solution. Earlier this week, Trump said he would ask Congress to implement the proposal, giving the financial firms more clarity about what exact path he’s pursuing. Bank executives have repeatedly decried the uniform cap, saying it’ll cause lenders to have to pull credit lines for consumers. The alternative proposal is to offer credit cards that would have a 10% rate specifically targeted to those consumers... who would already be eligible for the lowest rates around. And while it would do nothing to alleviate the near record high APRs for most Americans, it would let Trump declare that he managed to get the banks to yield - even if it was only a nominal success. As Bloomberg notes, some executives have publicly said they agree with Trump’s focus on affordability, and the latest options they’re mulling are one way to potentially work with the administration in its effort to lower costs for consumers. Many issuers including Bank of America and Citigroup already offer introductory rates for consumers as low as 0% for a period of time. On Thursday, Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said a 10% cap would slow consumer spending, but noted that the bank has been talking to the administration about it. “We’re working hard,” Moynihan said Thursday on a Bloomberg TV interview. “We’re trying to come up with solutions.” Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 13:20
Lululemon Restores Controversial Leggings On Online Store, Lifting Shares Update (Thursday): Lululemon Athletica shares in New York rose about 1% around lunchtime after the company returned the Get Low line to its e-commerce store. On the session, shares were up roughly 2.8%. Earlier in the week, Lululemon pulled the new training apparel line from its North America e-commerce website just days after launch, following an uproar on social media over claims that the leggings were see-through. Welcome back, Get Low line ... Meanwhile, Lululemon founder Chip Wilson blasted the Board in a social media post: This is a new low for lululemon. Pulling back the "Get Low" product line after three days is clearly a total operational failure. This comes just 17 months after the failed launch of the "Breezethrough" leggings, a product line also discontinued for similar product flaws. I've believed that lululemon has lost its cool for some time, but it is now evident to me that the Company has completely lost its way as a leader in technical apparel. For years, lululemon's results (particularly in North America) have shown how the Company has struggled to deliver products that are compelling and beloved; now it is unable to simply deliver products that work. Despite any finger pointing internally following this mishap, this is not the fault of any hard-working employees. This is the fault of the Board. It is clear that persistent failures like this are born out of this Board's lack of experience in creative businesses, disinterest in product development and quality, and focus on short-term, self-interested priorities. How could anyone reach a conclusion other than the Board continues to make decisions that are destroying the brand and the stock price? What product quality testing did the Board review? How often does the Board review the product pipeline? Are leaders empowered to make the best product decision or simply pushed to the lowest cost decision? I believe a leading Board would have a Brand Product Committee and have asked these questions. Taking another look at the Get Low line. And again. Lululemon's path back to relevancy in the athletic space may require a shake-up of the Board. * * * Lululemon Athletica yanked its new Get Low training apparel line from its North America e-commerce website just days after launch, following customer complaints that the leggings were see-through. "The Get Low line has officially been pulled. The leggings are absolutely see-through when you squat or bend over (in every colorway). You can bring them into any store and trade them for a different legging even if they have been worn, FYI. They didn't pull them from stores, so I don't know what Lululemon is thinking. The tops are great, in my opinion," a viral post on the r/lululemon subreddit stated two days ago. A spokesperson for Lululemon Athletica told Bloomberg that the entire "collection remains available in our stores in North America, but we have temporarily paused sales online in the market to better understand some initial guest feedback and support with product education." "We expect to bring the collection back to our North America e-commerce channels soon, and the collection continues to be available in other markets," Lululemon said. JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss told clients that the Get Low training apparel was removed from the company's website just three days after its debut. He said complaints on social media were mostly centered on the tights, with customers describing them as "not squat proof." Shares of LULU were down more than 5% in late afternoon trading on Tuesday. This is not Lululemon's first product debut fumble. In 2013, the company was forced to recall large amounts of its black yoga pants after customers complained that the leggings were see-through. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 13:14
Democrats Join Republicans In Voting The Clintons In Contempt Of Congress Authored by Jonathan Turley, Yesterday, a curious thing happened in a House Committee. Bill and Hillary Clinton were actually held accountable for flouting the law — at least as a preliminary matter. In the House Oversight Committee, Democrats joined Republicans in approving contempt resolutions against the two political figures after they refused to appear to answer questions about their connections to Jeffrey Epstein. The House panel voted 34-8 to advance the resolution on Bill Clinton to a floor vote. It voted 28-15 to advance a resolution on Hillary Clinton. As previously discussed, the Clintons adopted a position that was devoid of any cognizable legal defense. It was simple hubris, telling Congress that they did not want to appear to be saying that congressional subpoenas are discretionary for them. From the Whitewater case to the Lewinsky matter to the email scandal, the Clintons have always escaped accountability for their actions. Courts can find perjury and prosecutors can find classified material without a criminal charge. Evidence can suddenly surface after investigations, or thousands of emails can be destroyed without any repercussions. After that history, it is little surprise that the Clintons would believe that they, unlike other Americans, can choose whether to comply with a subpoena. After standing in flagrant contempt, the Clintons only reaffirmed the sense of entitlement by offering to allow an interview in New York without a transcript. There would be no “what the meaning of ‘is’ is” moments. It is a demonstration of our partisan times that the mere fact that Democrats joined in the motion came as a surprise to many. Nine Democrats voted with their GOP colleagues against the Clintons What is disgraceful are those Democrats who dispensed with any institutional or ethical obligations in opposing the resolution. Here were the eight Democrats who voted to allow the Clintons to disregard lawfully issued subpoenas from the Committee: Wesley Bell (D., Mo.) Shontel Brown (D., Oh) Robert Garcia (D., Cal.) Ro Khanna (D., Cal.) Kweisi Mfume (D., Md.) Eleanor Holmes Norton (D., D.C.) Suhas Subramanyam (D., Va.) James Walkinsaw (D., Va.) Then there are the two Democrats who voted “present” rather than take responsibility by making an actual decision: Reps. David Min (D., Cal.) and Yassamin Ansari (D., Wash.). That is the “profile of courage” for some members: voting that “I’m here” without taking a position on open contempt for the Committee. Figures like Ro Khanna have long portrayed themselves as more moderate voices, but appear to be yielding to the far left, including his recent support for the disastrous wealth tax in California. Now he is effectively saying that congressional subpoenas simply do not apply to the Clintons like they would every other American. The three Democrats who voted to advance the resolution against Hillary Clinton are Lee, Stansbury and Tlaib, according to Politico. Two Democrats voted “present” for the Bill Clinton contempt resolution: California Rep. David Min and Washington Rep. Yassamin Ansari, while just Min voted “present” on the Hillary Clinton resolution. This vote was the true test of courage for House members. There has to be something that is not entirely dispensable in the face of political advantage. Even if you disagree with the need for a subpoena, members should be able to support the authority of their colleagues to demand that everyone, even the Clintons, respect such subpoenas. For a party that runs on fighting the privileged and entitled wealthy class, this vote is comically ironic. They are supporting the claim of the Clintons that they get to decide when they will be subject to legal demands without offering any even remotely plausible legal defenses. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 13:00
Trump Sues JPMorgan And CEO Jamie Dimon For $5 Billion Over Alleged 'Political' Debanking President Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon, claiming the banking giant debanked him for political reasons. The lawsuit was filed Thursday morning in a Miami state court by his attorney, Alejandro Brito, on behalf of Trump and several of his hospitality companies. The complaint cites JPMorgan's code of conduct, which reads: "We set high expectations and hold ourselves accountable. We do the right thing—not necessarily the easy or expedient thing. We abide by the letter and spirit of the laws and regulations everywhere we do business and have zero tolerance for unethical behavior." According to Brito, "Despite claiming to hold these principles dear, JPMC violated them by unilaterally—and without warning or remedy—terminating several of Plaintiff’s bank accounts." Trump and his companies have "transacted hundreds of millions of dollars" through the bank, the lawsuit reads, adding that Feb. 19, 2021 was the day that "forever altered the dynamic of the parties’ relationship," when the bank allegedly "without warning or provocation," notified Trump and his companies that several of their bank accounts or were beneficiaries of, "would be closed just two months later, on April 19, 2021." "JPMC did not provide plaintiffs with any recourse, remedy, or alternative—its decision was final and unequivocal," reads the suit. JPMorgan Responds In a statement following the filing of the suit, the bank blamed "rules and regulatory expectations." "We do close accounts because they create legal or regulatory risk for the company," adding "We regret having to do so but often rules and regulatory expectations lead us to do so. We have been asking both this Administration and prior administrations to change the rules and regulations that put us in this position, and we support the Administration’s efforts to prevent the weaponization of the banking sector." According to Trump's attorney, his team is "confident that JPMC’s unilateral decision came about as a result of political and social motivations, and JPMC’s unsubstantiated, ‘woke’ beliefs that it needed to distance itself from President Trump and his conservative political views." "In essence, JPMC debunked plaintiff’s accounts because it believed that the political tide at the moment favored doing so," reads the complaint. "In addition to the considerable financial and reputational harm that Plaintiffs and their affiliated entities suffered, JPMC’s reckless decision is leading a growing trend by financial institutions in the United States of America to cut off a consumer’s access to banking services if their political views contradict with those of the financial institution." Trump’s attorney alleged that, "JPMC’s conduct, in violation of its code of conduct and Dimon’s lofty assertions, is a key indicator of a systemic, subversive industry practice that aims to coerce the public to shift and re-align their political views." The lawsuit goes on to allege that JPMorgan Chase and Dimon have "unlawfully and unjustifiably published some or all of their names, including the names of President Trump, the Trump Organization with its affiliated entities, and the Trump family, on a blacklist." -Fox News According to the lawsuit, the JPMorgan blacklist is accessible by federally regulated banks and is comprised of individuals and entities that are not to be served. "Given that Plaintiffs have always complied with all applicable banking rules and regulations and their wealth management accounts were in good standing, JPMC’s publication of President Trump, the other Plaintiffs, the Trump Organization and its affiliated entities, and/or the Trump family’s names on this blacklist, is an intentional and malicious falsehood," reads the lawsuit, which claims that the bank engaged in "an unfair and deceptive trade practice" by directing the publication of the names to the list, noting that the bank "had no legitimate basis to do so and knew that doing so would induce, and did in fact induce, other banking institutions not to deal with them." Trump Announcement Over the weekend, Trump quashed a WSJ article claiming that he offered JPM's Jamie Dimon the job of Fed Chairman, which he said was "totally untrue, there was never such an offer and, in fact, I'll be suing JPMorgan Chase over the next two weeks for incorrectly and inappropriately DEBANKING me after the January 6th Protest..." In response, a JPMorgan spokeswoman, Trish Wexler, told media outlets that the bank does not "close accounts because of political beliefs." As the Epoch Times noted over the weekend, in August 2025, Trump issued an executive order to ensure that banks cannot refuse services to individuals based on their political or religious beliefs, a practice known as “debanking.” A watchdog in December found that nine large U.S. banks actively engaged in the practice between 2020 and 2025. “To date, the [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency] has observed that between 2020 and 2023, the banks maintained public and nonpublic policies restricting certain industry sectors’ access to banking services,” the report reads. “Many industry sectors were restricted based primarily on how it might appear to the public if the bank provided access to financial services to these sectors.” Advocates against debanking have cited cases of Christians and conservatives who have stated that they have been victims of the practice by major financial institutions, including claims from the Indigenous Advance Ministries, former Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), and Trump himself, among many others. First Lady Melania Trump, in her memoir “Melania,” wrote that she, too, was denied banking services. “I was shocked and dismayed to learn that my long-time bank decided to terminate my account and deny my son the opportunity to open a new one,” she wrote in her book. When issuing the order over the summer, the White House said banks could face fines, consent decrees, or other punitive actions if they continue to remove financial access for certain individuals. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 12:40
Oil Prices Drop As Geopolitical Risk Eases, Gasoline Stocks At Highest Since 2020 Oil prices are lower this morning after Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said that the US, Russia and Ukraine will meet in coming days for trilateral team meetings. WTI dropped below $60 as Zelenskiy urged Russia to be “ready for compromises.” Any breakthrough to end Moscow’s war in Ukraine could iron out supply disruptions and end sanctions on Russian crude in an already oversupplied global market, sapping a longstanding geopolitical risk premium. Adding to pressure on prices, Kazakhstan is getting closer to ending a weeks-long export constraint as repairs at a key Black Sea oil-loading facility near completion. A backlog of cargoes at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal is easing. And supplies are also returning to the global market from Venezuela. Easing tensions returned the focus to market fundamentals, as traders look to rising global inventories as supply runs well ahead of demand (seemingly confirmed by a large build in crude and product stocks reported overnight by API). API Crude +3.04mm Cushing +1.2mm Gasoline +6.2mm Distillates -33k DOE Crude +3.6mm Cushing +1.478mm - biggest build since Aug 2025 Gasoline +5.977mm Distillates +3.348mm The official data showed inventory builds across the board with Cushing stocks jumping by the most since August and gasoline inventories up for the 10th week in a row Source: Bloomberg Gasoline inventories are now at the highest level since 2021 and the highest seasonal level since 2020. This comes as demand plummeted to the lowest weekly level since January 2023. East Coast gasoline stocks posted their largest weekly move since the end of 2021. Source: Bloomberg US Crude production dipped a little from record highs as rig counts continue to trend lower... Source: Bloomberg WTI extended losses after the across the board builds... Source: Bloomberg “The geopolitical temperature has eased a few degrees,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, a strategist at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. But with a range of supply threats unresolved, and colder weather set to bolster US demand, prices will likely “hold firm.” Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 12:05
Court Blocks Feds From Searching Materials Obtained In Raid On WaPo Journalist Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times, A federal judge has blocked the government from searching data obtained in a raid last week on the home of Washington Post journalist Hannah Natanson. The order from U.S. Magistrate Judge William B. Porter comes after the federal government on Jan. 14 executed a search warrant at Natanson’s home. According to The Washington Post, federal authorities seized a phone, two laptops, a recorder, a portable hard drive, and a Garmin watch during the raid. The Standstill Order granted by Porter specifically says that the government must “preserve but ... not review” the materials obtained in the raid while litigation on the matter moves forward. An additional motion filed by Natanson and The Washington Post called on the court to order the government to return Natanson’s seized materials. Oral arguments on this motion will be held Feb. 6, with the court holding off on any intervention until then. The brief order contains no discussions of the case’s merits or arguments, which will be delayed until after the Feb. 6 hearing. Federal authorities say the search warrant was part of an investigation into a national security leak. Aurelio Perez-Lugones, a government contractor with top secret security clearance, is at the center of the investigation. According to the FBI, Perez-Lugones is believed to have brought classified information from his job to his home. In a criminal complaint, the FBI said it found documents marked “secret” and described as “related to national defense” in his basement, lunchbox, and car. The raid on Natanson was related to this leak, though additional details on the nature of the information have not been provided. “This past week, at the request of the Department of War, the Department of Justice and FBI executed a search warrant at the home of a Washington Post journalist who was obtaining and reporting classified and illegally leaked information from a Pentagon contractor. The leaker is currently behind bars,” Attorney General Pam Bondi wrote in a post on X. “The Trump Administration will not tolerate illegal leaks of classified information that, when reported, pose a grave risk to our Nation’s national security and the brave men and women who are serving our country.” First Amendment Concerns Meanwhile, critics of the move—including The Washington Post—say that the unprecedented raid represents a major threat to First Amendment protections related to freedom of speech and freedom of the press. According to the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press—which tracks issues affecting First Amendment freedoms as they relate to members of the media—the raid on Natanson’s home marks the first time in U.S. history that the Department of Justice (DOJ) has raided a journalist’s home in connection with a national security leak. The president of the organization, Bruce Brown, described the raid as “a tremendous escalation in the administration’s intrusions into the independence of the press.” Following the raid, The Washington Post immediately filed to have the materials returned, citing First Amendment protections and federal statutes that provide extra legal protections to journalists. “The federal government’s wholesale seizure of a reporter’s confidential news-gathering materials violates the Constitution’s protections for free speech and a free press and should not be allowed to stand,” The Washington Post wrote. “It ... flouts the First Amendment and ignores federal statutory safeguards for journalists. The seizure chills speech, cripples reporting, and inflicts irreparable harm every day the government keeps its hands on protected materials.” The petition called for the court to “order the immediate return of all seized materials. Anything less would license future newsroom raids and normalize censorship by search warrant.” Privacy Protection Act Under the Privacy Protection Act of 1980, specific procedures are mandated for obtaining notes, communications, and other work-related data from journalists, requiring that these materials be obtained via a subpoena related to an ongoing criminal investigation. Subpoenas can also be challenged in court before being executed, in contrast to a search warrant, which is generally only able to be challenged after the fact. The Privacy Protection Act prohibits the use of standard search warrants as grounds for such a raid. The bill was passed specifically to overturn a 1978 Supreme Court ruling in Zurcher v. Stanford Daily. In that instance, police had raided a newsroom with a standard search warrant, which the Supreme Court ruled lawful. Congress, disapproving of the ruling, passed the Privacy Protection Act to make it more difficult for the government to obtain journalistic materials. The Washington Post cited the statute in its filing, writing that returning the materials is justified as “much of it is protected by the Privacy Protection Act.” The DOJ has been given until Jan. 28 to file a response to the suit. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 11:45
Foreign Policy: Grading Trump's Second Term So Far Following Dinesh D’Souza and Dave Smith’s clash on what really is America First last week, fault lines were largely drawn on geopolitical lines. Core differences between the Carlson-Gaetz-Bannon and Shapiro-Levin-Loomer camps of the conservative movement lie on issues like the U.S. relationship to Israel, the capture of Maduro, with some GOP hawks still supporting intervention in Eastern Europe. Given the divide is on these grounds, the question is: How has Trump done on foreign policy in his second term? Answering this question, tonight we’ll host Trump’s former National Security Council Chief of Staff Fred Fleitz against Libertarian Institute founder and antiwar.com editor Scott Horton covering South America to Middle East to Europe to Asia. What the President does with Iran in the face of Israeli and neocon pressure may be a key question in the coming days. The only reason America doesn't have good relations with Iran is because Israel forbids it. https://t.co/MgxCeUngXC — Scott Horton (@scotthortonshow) January 20, 2026 Horton is firmly is the “stay the hell out” corner while Fleitz recently made his call for intervention known, citing agreement with former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich: “The demonstrations may have stopped or ebbed because security forces are shooting at even small groups of people who gather on the street. Iran's FM yesterday told Fox that executions were off for Wednesday and Thursday but could not say about Friday. Other Iranian officials seem determined to begin executions. The regime is blaming the US, Israel, and drug traffickers for the protests. Iranian officials are sending large funds out of the country. The US reportedly is moving military assets into the region, including the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier. I agree with Newt Gingrich that the Iranian regime is not about to fall but is struggling to survive. I also agree with Newt that the Iranian people cannot overthrow the regime without outside help. Iran will never be the same after this brutal crackdown. The fall of the regime is within sight.” My take on the current situation in Iran. The demonstrations may have stopped or ebbed because security forces are shooting at even small groups of people who gather on the street. Iran's FM yesterday told Fox that executions were off for Wednesday and Thursday but could not… — Fred Fleitz (@FredFleitz) January 15, 2026 Another open question of Trump’s foreign policy is the fate of Greenland. Hosting will be David Rand from the Human Reaction podcast. We’ll see you tonight at 7pm ET, live on the homepage, X, and YouTube. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 11:25
Trump's "Green Deal" Has Fully Shattered The Liberal World Order By Michael Every of Rabobank Green Stocks Land The Greenland crisis was logically always likely to end quickly, to market approval, due to European geostrategic weakness, but still herald a new world order that markets don’t understand and won’t like once they do. That’s exactly how it’s now played out. At Davos, President Trump ruled out the use of force but gave Europe and NATO an ultimatum on Greenland: within hours, a ‘framework deal’ was struck and threatened US tariffs on eight EU countries have been removed. This reportedly echoes the post-imperial arrangement the UK has with Cyprus. The US gains time-unlimited (Trump: “Forever”) access to areas of Greenland around military bases, as well as concessions for critical minerals, and the island will host the US Golden Dome missile defense shield. There will also be a far greater, permanent European NATO focus on its defense and the Northern Passage. Those who say TACO all the time will cluck here. Those who see Republicans serve up ‘American Greenland’ cake at a Kennedy Centre event, Trump forcing vastly higher defense spending on all US allies, being paid tariff revenues that aren’t part of any agreed FTA, receiving trillions in pledged inwards FDI which the US will direct, and putting Iran’s nuclear programme under rubble and Venezuela’s Maduro in a New York courtroom, will argue it’s Europe that yielded, and will be forced to spend even more on Arctic defence, and to move even further under a US shield and a critical minerals processing compact, not its own independent ones. For markets, that’s the good news. The bad news is that the liberal world order is shattered. Trump didn’t invade – and he was never going to except in some fevered imaginations. Yet he demonstrated to Europe he could, as could others in the future, and there’s presently nothing they can do about it. That’s how the world always worked until the past few decades, and it’s how it will work again going forwards. For example, as Europe looks north-west, this week saw the US suddenly withdraw support for the Kurdish region of Syria that has thrived in recent years as it opts to back the former-jihadi Syrian president instead: there are already reports of appalling violence being inflicted on Kurds there. If Europe noticed that development to its south-east, it’s completely powerless to do anything about it if it disagrees – which isn’t clear at all either. Moreover, on top of trade, energy, tech, finance, and NATO/Ukraine as points of relative European geostrategic weakness, once one accepts realpolitik, consider that if Europe ever ‘pivots to China’, as some have whispered, the US can ‘pivot to Russia’ and arm it against Ukraine and Europe. If Europe thinks it has that China card in its pocket, it needs to be aware that the US still has more of them. That’s hardly the foundation for a solid Western alliance. Indeed, even with tariff threats removed, the European establishment loves America but in private evidently wishes Trump were gone – ECB President Lagarde walked out of a Davos dinner after anti-EU barbs from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Equally, the US President states in public that he loves Europe and his admin that they wish its establishment was gone (see the NSS). So where to from here? Logically, leaderships could change. November 2026 looms, as does the French presidential election in April 2027. Yet some genies aren’t so easily put back into bottles. As such, it’s down to the realpolitik of who has the best cards. Canada’s PM Carney, who didn’t meet Trump at Davos, earlier made a much-publicized speech which stated: “Many countries are drawing the same conclusions - that they must develop greater strategic autonomy: in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance and supply chains. And this impulse is understandable. A country that can’t feed itself, fuel itself or defend itself has few options. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.” That sounds exactly like Trump. Yet as George Magnus points out, Carney citing Czech anti-communist dissident Vaclav Havel’s ‘The Power of the Powerless’ to call out Trump and the polite hypocrisies of the liberal world order doesn’t sit easily with him heading to China to strike trade deals. That’s Trump’s game, played with far weaker cards. Today, the powerless are… powerless. Indeed, Trump noted from the Davos stage: “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.” As the Canadian press puts it, ‘At Davos, a new great game dawns for the world. Which way, Canada?’ And all of us. In the short term, green land - because TACO, or because Europe in 2026 is Egypt of 1956. In the long term, it’s unclear – and starkly binary. Europe and others can try to go their own way. For example, Spain just urged the EU to create a joint army. Yet that’s the same Spain that adamantly refuses to spend 5% of GDP on defence within NATO. Talk is cheap. Preparation for war, or for strategic autonomy, is mind-blowingly expensive, and the US can block these moves every step of the way. Or European disunity can block itself: the European parliament just voted for the new EU-Mercosur deal to be given judicial review, which will delay it for a year. Trump deals seem to get agreed on a handshake or a tweet. Or Europe and others will see policy after policy directed by the US. Consider the EU just watered down its green rules to ensure it can keep flows of Qatari LNG; and symbolically, the World Economic Forum is considering moving from Davos to new places. Like Florida? Long-term planning is going to be very hard if you don’t know who is doing it for you – the US, or Europe – or China? Domestic politics will also twist and turn in tandem. In Australia, the opposition coalition between the Liberals and the Nationals has just shattered again for the second time in a year. This time, it may not come back together as One Nation surge in the polls. In markets, at Davos, ‘Wall Street Chiefs Try to Lay Low to Avoid Trump’s Trolling’ says Bloomberg, which summarises the mood. Eyes are on the Supreme Court, which in hearing oral arguments expressed scepticism over Trump’s bid to sack Lisa Cook from the Fed, with specific mention of the importance of its independence. That Trump front matters as much, if not more, than Greenland, and potentially opens up a new world order to the same extent. If he wins there it would again mean green land at first, because “rate cuts!”, but then serious questions over what/where next. There is also relative calm in Japan, which is also in the green following efforts to stabilize things after the wild volatility in JGB markets this week. That trend, which some try to paint as "a quarrel in a faraway land between people of which we know nothing", with no implications for sensible developed markets like Europe, is also a warning. Japan just ran its fifth consecutive annual trade deficit in 2025, and it’s that development --alongside “it’s baaack” inflation-- which is undermining its ability to stabilize its markets without relying on the kindness others. That structural threat looms ahead for many economies and is another reason why they need to not only be ‘resilient’ but to run trade surpluses --which obviously not everybody can-- or find a bloc they can sit within that will support them. And sometimes that choice is made for them. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 11:05
Alberta Sees Large Turnout For Petition To Separate From Canada Crowds of Canadian citizens stood in long lines across Alberta for hours this week to sign a petition for a referendum on leaving Canada - officially titled "A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence." The petition requires at least 177,000 signatures in order to trigger the referendum, which would ultimately decide if the province will separate. Petitions have 120 days to collect the signatures needed. Pro-separation groups say they could get as many as 1 million signatures, which would be a clear indication that Alberta will leave Canada. Alberta's population is currently 5 million people. Some petition locations reported as many as 10,000 signatures in a day and the public response is described as "concerning" by critics who want to remain part of Canada's "constitutional monarchy." Alberta is widely considered the most conservative province in the country and has been at odds with the far-left Canadian government (ruled by Ontario progressives). The referendum would mean a simply Yes/No question for voters on separation. A majority (51% or more) would then lead to a legal process overseen by the Canadian federal government. Come polls indicate that 60% of Albertan citizens are still opposed to the measure, however, the recent turnout for the petition suggests the tide is turning. Recent conflicts with progressive elites in the Canadian government have driven Albertans to question their relationship. Alberta fought against the leftist government's pandemic lockdowns, church and business closures and draconian vaccination requirements. They remain in opposition to Canada's new gun laws which are incrementally removing all firearms from private hands. They have also been at odds with the federal government over resource development, energy policy, carbon taxation and economic marginalization. Essentially, Alberta is a different nation when compared to the Canadian norm. It is also a commodity treasure trove that Canada exploits to feed its coffers while rarely giving anything back to provincial citizens. Wow, an absolute insane lineup of people - that goes entire city blocks - of people in Calgary waiting to sign a petition to make Alberta an independent sovereign nation. pic.twitter.com/HqB1xaJRs8 — Keean Bexte (@TheRealKeean) January 11, 2026 Canadian courts initially blocked a referendum question on separation, asserting that the implications of the question were too vague and did not align with constitutional requirements. Instead of appealing the decision, Alberta turned to the legislature. Within days, the legislature passed Bill 14, amending the Referendum Act to remove the requirement that referendum questions align with the Constitution. Separatists quickly got a revised referendum question approved, and the petition process resumed Another obstacle to the separation is a lawsuit brought by the Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation goes far beyond provincial politics. The First Nation is seeking an urgent injunction to stop Alberta’s petition process. They say a separation would be in violation of their original treaty with the Crown. The claim sets up a possible loophole allowing the federal government to deny separation, but the notion that a Native treaty supersedes provincial law is rather thin. Alberta's separation would simply mean that the Cree would have to negotiate a new treaty. Arguments against the referendum say that Alberta is "landlocked", which would make its separation economically disastrous. This is not entirely true. Their shared border with the US and newfound sovereignty would allow the province to establish more significant oil pipelines (pipelines which the Canadian government has consistently blocked in the past). This development along with greater resource exploration and an alliance with American interests would make Alberta one of the wealthiest regions in the western hemisphere. Furthermore, Alberta stretches within 700 miles of the arctic, an area of the world which is quickly becoming central to geopolitics. Early warning systems and NORAD bases in Alberta are integral to US security. These bases could be shut down in the event that conflicts between Canada and the US escalate. A free Alberta could become vital to US defense. The debate over US ownership of Greenland is only one element of a larger global shift to the North. Alberta's exit from Canada and potential alliance with the US could have vast implications for international relations. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 11:00
FBI Arrests Far-Left Activists Who Stormed Minnesota Church Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday announced that two far-left activists - one of whom played a 'key role' in the storming of a Minnesota church - have been arrested. Nekima Levy Armstrong "So far, we have arrested Nekima Levy Armstrong, who allegedly played a key role in organizing the coordinated attack on Cities Church in St. Paul, Minnesota," Bondi posted on X, adding "WE DO NOT TOLERATE ATTACKS ON PLACES OF WORSHIP." Roughly 30 minutes later, Bondi announced a second arrest had been made, with Chauntyll Louisa Allen having been taken into custody. Allen is a board member for Saint Paul Public Schools. UPDATE: A second arrest has been made at my direction. Chauntyll Louisa Allen has been taken into custody. More to come. WE WILL PROTECT OUR HOUSES OF WORSHIP 🙏🏻 — Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) January 22, 2026 Armstrong, former president of the NAACP in Minneapolis, helped lead a group that poured into the Cities Church in St. Paul before chanting "ICE out" and "Justice for Renee Good," because one of the church's pastors, David Easterwood, heads up the local ICE field office. Nekima Levy Armstrong, Facebook Armstrong posted a video of the protest, which she referred to as "our demonstration," which showed dozens of agitators storming the church. In the post, she wrote "It's time for judgment to begin and it will begin in the House of God!" Shocking footage from Cities Church in Minneapolis this morning (an SBC church) where an anti-ICE mob stormed the service and disrupted their worship, alleging one of the church’s lead pastors is an ICE agent. pic.twitter.com/hS2FhzrFc4 — Center for Baptist Leadership (@BaptistLeaders) January 18, 2026 Following the incident, washed up propagandist Don Lemon tried to lecture a pastor, suggesting that the storming was constitutional. NEW: Don Lemon tries lecturing a pastor on the First Amendment after a mob of far leftists stormed a church in Minneapolis. Pastor: “This is unacceptable. It's shameful to interrupt a public gathering of Christians in worship…” Lemon: “Listen, there's a constitution, the First… pic.twitter.com/joHdCvaXe6 — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 18, 2026 Armstrong, a former law professor who's now a full time activist, has been a key organizer in boycotts against Target for scaling back DEI programs. Meet Nekima Levy Armstrong… She led the group of Marxists that stormed the Church with Don Lemon. She is a community agitator tied to Leftist orgs. She made $170,000 at a 501(c)(3) called The Wayfinder Foundation. Of course… The Resistance is funded by us. Lock her up! pic.twitter.com/G7oaiKWdWl — C3 (@C_3C_3) January 19, 2026 Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:50
Watch Live: Elon Musk Speaks With Larry Fink At Davos Update (1105ET): Notable comments from the Musk-Fink conversation: Musk says there are 9,000 Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit and that SpaceX has never had to maneuver to avoid an alien spacecraft. Musk says AI and robotics will improve the standard of living. This could lead to an explosion of the global economy. Musk predicts that so many robots would be produced that they would create an abundance of goods and services, with robots ultimately outnumbering people. Musk says he has not put much time into solving the problem of human aging. Fink then moves onto the topic of AI data centers and massive compute... Musk responds by saying the limiting factor for AI deployment is "electrical power" ... Musk says the world will be producing more chips than can turn on ... power is the bottleneck. Musk says solar is the biggest source of energy, beyond Earth as well. Musk says with SpaceX - within a few years - launching solar-powered AI satellites (so data centers in LEO?) Musk says a 100-mile by 100-mile square of solar can generate enough power for US. Says the economics of solar are high because China controls solar panel production. Fink shifts topic to robotics ... Musk said humanoid robotics will advance very quickly, noting that Tesla's Optimus robots are already performing simple tasks in factories. By the end of this year, he expects them to handle more complex tasks, and sometime next year, possibly toward the end of the year, Tesla could begin selling the robots to the public. Musk on Tesla FSD: Says some insurance companies are offering public discounted rates for using FSD software. Fink moves to the space industry: Musk says SpaceX is hoping to achieve "full reusability of a rocket" this year. Musk says Starship should prove "full reusability," which will lower the cost of accessing space by a factor of 100. Musk says the lowest cost for AI is space. Cheap solar power plus cooling. Says AI data centers in space will be in two years. So far, the Musk-Fink conversation has been extraordinarily dull. Fink has not been entertaining, and Musk has largely focused on touting his companies. Fink did not steer the conversation into politics or Trump. * * * Update (1030ET): Day four of the World Economic Forum in Davos is underway. President Trump and his "America First" agenda continue to dominate, with Elon Musk next on stage and expected to speak at 16:30 CET (10:30 ET). Ahead of Musk's talk with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, the Tesla and SpaceX founder asked users on X: "Speaking @wef in 20 mins. What should I say?" Speaking @wef in 20 mins. What should I say? 🤭 — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 22, 2026 One X user responded with .... This: pic.twitter.com/JU8LmTAxHV — Luke Slywaker (@LukeSlywaker) January 22, 2026 We noted earlier that Musk has criticized the globalists at WEF, saying several years ago, "My reason for declining the Davos invitation was not because I thought they were engaged in diabolical scheming, but because it sounded boring af." Watch Musk Live: When does WEF get replaced by "AEF": America Economic Forum? * * * President Trump and his "America First" agenda dominated the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week, taking direct aim at the snobbish European leftists and the globalist establishment that has tried everything in its bag of tricks to derail Trump's pro-Americana agenda. Now Elon Musk, who has openly mocked Davos, is set to make a surprise appearance later this morning at WEF. The WEF's website has confirmed that Musk will speak with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink from 1630 to 1700 CET (or 1030 to 1100 EST). Bloomberg notes that Musk was a "last-minute addition" for the Thursday afternoon conference. Also, this will be Musk's first WEF appearance. Musk has repeatedly criticized the WEF in the post-Covid era, suggesting that his worldview shifted drastically from a globalist cult mindset to one he describes as pro-humanity and, what globalists despise the most, firmly aligned with Trump's America First agenda. Here are five quotes from Musk commenting on or criticizing WEF over the years: "WEF is increasingly becoming an unelected world government that the people never asked for and don't want." (January 2023, in response to criticism of the WEF's influence) "Why was American taxpayer money sent to the WEF? It's a wealthy boondoggle in Switzerland!" (February 2025, reacting to revelations about U.S. funding allocations including to the WEF) "By 'misinformation', WEF means anything that conflicts with its agenda." (January 2024, commenting on the WEF's global risks report prioritizing "misinformation") "My reason for declining the Davos invitation was not because I thought they were engaged in diabolical scheming, but because it sounded boring af." (December 2022, explaining why he turned down an invitation to attend Davos) "We shouldn't be obsessed with WEF/Davos, but they take themselves sooo seriously that making fun of them is hard to resist." (January 2023, during the annual Davos meeting when the WEF was a major topic of discussion ... and the X posts: Wow, I didn’t know Elizabeth Warren was at Davospic.twitter.com/q9FwDDx3Z8 — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 18, 2024 “Master the Future” doesn’t sound ominous at all … 🙄 How is WEF/Davos even a thing? Are they trying to be the boss of Earth!? — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 17, 2023 My reason for declining the Davos invitation was not because I thought they were engaged in diabolical scheming, but because it sounded boring af lol — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 30, 2022 Recap Trump's America First agenda at WEF: Trump's Long, Meandering Pre-Davos Presser: 'Things Are Going To Work Out Pretty Well' Greentanamo: Trump Deal Gives US Sovereignty Over Small Pockets Of Greenland For Military Bases Trump Unveils His Board Of Peace In Davos: A Replacement To The UN Or A US-Led Coalition Of The Willing? Meanwhile, Gov. Newsom's appearance at the WEF was widely seen as an embarrassment for America. Embarrassment. 🚨 JUST IN: Gavin Newsom brings the "Trump-signature kneepads" to the WEF in Davos so he can give them to world leaders who are metaphorically "sucking up" to Trump Is this guy freaking serious? He says TRUMP is the immature one? You're a psycho, Gavin. You're being mocked. pic.twitter.com/J7vjovZ6oO — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 22, 2026 When does WEF get replaced by "AEF": America Economic Forum? Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:30
Zelensky Blasts Europe's Inaction, Paralysis As Greenland Sideshow Consumes Attention "Europe loves to discuss the future but avoids taking action today." As Bloomberg has described it, a visibly angry Zelensky Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tore into European leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday. "Where is the line of leaders who are ready to act?" he questioned. Highlighting that his own capital is in the midst of a power and water crisis after nightly Russian bombardment, Zelensky shamed European capitals for being unwilling to stop Putin, now nearly four years into the war. This included emphasis on the failed push to outright seize frozen Russian assets in Europe. Is he taking a page from Trump's playbook, taking the opportunity to blame and lash out at Europe? The talk had themes of a fragmented Europe which looks lost in the face of much stronger and more decisive US power and Trump's demands. Zelensky in Davos, Shutterstock/BBC "Why can President Trump stop tankers from the shadow fleet and seize oil, when Europe doesn't?" Zelensky posed. "If Putin has no money, there is no war for Europe." "We should not accept that Europe is just a salad of small and middle powers, seasoned with enemies of Europe," Zelensky continued. "When Ukraine is with you, no one will wipe their feet on you. And you will always have a way to act – and act in time." "To defend our land is a very expensive task," he had also said during the later Q&A session. Zelensky mentioned that in his meeting with President Donald Trump earlier in the day, which lasted about an hour, he left as his final communication to Trump that Ukraine desperately needs more anti-air defenses, especially Patriot missiles. Trump for his part had said it was a good meeting, and that "Everybody wants to have the war end," - but that he'll have to "see what happens," adding that the US is meeting with Russia tomorrow. In Zelensky's speech he interestingly alluded to distractions currently facing global leaders, including Greenland and Iran. He paralleled the deadly Iran protests with the world's 'inaction' in Ukraine. He went so far as to charge global leaders of not wanting to extend support for Iranians, "and the democracy they need". "When you refuse to help people fighting for freedom, the consequences return - and they are always negative," Zelensky said. According to more: Zelensky then moves on to international discussion about the Iranian protests, which he says has "drowned in blood". Linking the example of the US's capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, he comes back to the impasse over Ukraine, saying that while Maduro is in New York awaiting trial, "Putin is not". Zelensky, as usual, didn't disappoint, and preemptively thwarted any Russian-American compromise agreements. Speaking at the Davos Forum, he proposed trying Putin like Maduro, demanded the deployment of European troop contingents on Ukrainian territory after the end of… pic.twitter.com/hI2En26j5M — Victor vicktop55 commentary (@vick55top) January 22, 2026 On Greenland, he said European leaders seem to believe someone else will do something to resolve the issue. Still, everyone is "waiting for America to cool down on this topic, waiting for it to pass away," he said. One interesting moment came in Zelensky's introductory remarks, in which he referenced the early 1990s film Groundhog Day - where the lead character repeats the same day over and over again. "No one wants to live like that," Zelensky observed, "repeating the same thing for weeks, months, years. And that's how we live now." Meanwhile, while Zelensky spoke in Davos... BREAKING: Macron: This morning, the French Navy boarded an oil tanker coming from Russia, subject to international sanctions and suspected of flying a false flag. The operation was conducted on the high seas in the Mediterranean, with the support of several of our allies. It… pic.twitter.com/T0M0yO0Bvp — Clash Report (@clashreport) January 22, 2026 Despite the change in tone and sentiment when addressing Europe, there's not much even the 'coalition of the willing' can do in the face of Zelensky's impassioned plea - which was also filled with frustration. If the Western alliance keeps poking Russia too strongly, the bear will react in even bigger ways - already as each side is trying to keep a lid on prior nuclear threats and rhetoric. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:20
Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Refuses To Show Any Signs Of Runaway 'Trump Tariff' Costs Before we all get too excited, bear in mind that this is November's data - so still horribly stale (and also missing October's data point entirely) - but it's all we have for now, so let's dive in... The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), which leave it up 2.8% YoY (as expected), slightly lower than September's +2.9%... Source: Bloomberg Bear in mind that this morning's third look at Q3 GDP printed a +2.9% YoY for Core PCE. Under the hood, the biggest driver of Core PCE remains Services costs - not tariff-driven Goods prices... Source: Bloomberg In fact, on a MoM basis, Non-durable goods prices saw deflation for the second month in a row... Source: Bloomberg Headline PCE rose 2.8% YoY (es expected), stubbornly refusing to show any signs of runaway Trump tariff costs... Source: Bloomberg The closely-watched SuperCore PCE rose 0.2% MoM which ticked up the YoY rise to 3.1%... Source: Bloomberg After surging in October, November saw Financial Services & Insurance and Healthcare cost inflation slow... Source: Bloomberg Meanwhile, amid rising prices, Americans' spending outpaced incomes once again... Source: Bloomberg ...with wage growth slowing for all: Private worker wages and salaries: 4.1% YoY, down from 4.5%, lowest since June 2025 Govt work wages and salaries 2.6%, tied for lowest since March 2021 All of which dragged the savings rate down to its lowest since Nov 2022... TL/DR: While this data is admittedly stale, it shows no signs of 1) tariff-driven inflation or 2) a slowing consumer. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:12
"Totally Absurd": Circle CEO Rejects Bank-Run Fearmongering Over Stablecoin Yields Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com, Jeremy Allaire, CEO of the publicly listed stablecoin issuer Circle, said interest payments on stablecoins do not pose a threat to banks. Speaking Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Allaire described concerns that stablecoin yields could cause bank runs as “totally absurd,” citing historical precedents and existing reward-based financial services already in use. “They help with stickiness, they help with customer traction,” Allaire said, adding that interest itself is not large enough to undermine monetary policy. Allaire’s comments came amid heated debate over stablecoin yields, including in discussions over the US CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a federal market structure framework for digital assets. Allaire points to money market funds as a historical parallel Allaire pointed to government money market funds as a historical parallel, noting they faced similar warnings about draining bank deposits. Yet it has been “around $11 trillion of dollar money market funds that grew in various different circumstances,” Allaire said, adding that this has not stopped lending. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire at the WEF panel on Thursday. Source: WEF “Meanwhile, lending is already shifting away from banks toward private credit and capital markets. In the US, much of GDP growth over multiple cycles has been funded through capital-market debt, not bank loans,” he said. “We want to build models for lending that build on top of stablecoins.” Circle CEO says stablecoins are the only viable money for AI agents Allaire also highlighted artificial intelligence as a major driver of future stablecoin adoption. He said “billions of AI agents” will need a payment system, adding that “there is no other alternative other than stablecoins to do that right now.” Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. Source: YZi Labs Similar views were echoed elsewhere at the forum. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said Thursday at Davos that crypto payments could be essential for AI-driven transactions. In September, Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz predicted that AI agents will become the biggest stablecoin user “sometime in the near distant future.” Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:00
NatGas Jumps 75% As Extreme Cold, Blizzard Risks Threaten Appalachian Gas Supply US natural gas futures are ripping higher, up roughly 75% in just three trading days, and are on pace to post the largest weekly gain on record. The move has all the signs of a classic winter-driven short squeeze, with traders scrambling to cover as a polar blast descends into the Lower 48. An intense Arctic blast and a sprawling winter storm system, drawing comparisons to the Blizzard of '96, are set to sweep across the eastern half of the US this weekend. Weather models point to prolonged sub-freezing temperatures, raising the risk of freeze-offs in the Appalachian Basin, a critical US NatGas supply region. Energy research firm Criterion Research was the first to warn that NatGas production disruptions across Appalachia could materially tighten balances at the worst possible time, just as heating demand spikes. Any sustained freeze-offs would not only pressure spot supply but could also stress regional power grids. Criterion Research explained: Winter is Coming for Appalachia This week's Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started. Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in lower and longer than Winter Storm Elliott (Dec 2022.) During Eliott, regional production dropped 25-30%. Winter is Coming for Appalachia This week's Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started. Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in… pic.twitter.com/l2oyl80cfe — Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 22, 2026 We cited Criterion Research on Wednesday (read here), which outlined where the production freeze-offs are likely to emerge. Production Freeze Offs Coming The screenshot from our Mapping Analytics Platform below shows all Appalachian production meters in the region (green dots) and processing plants (pink dots) - and the key item to watch is where winter precipitation hits and where the power outages… pic.twitter.com/PjWxQPc3Zo — Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 21, 2026 At least 175 million people across the Lower 48 will face snow, rain, sleet and ice through the weekend as record-breaking cold pours into the eastern half of the US. Below-zero temperatures are expected to boost heating demand at a time when pipeline freeze-offs could disrupt gas production. We warned on Wednesday: Recall Winter Storm Uri in 2021, when extreme cold paralyzed the NatGas supply and collapsed the ERCOT grid in Texas for a week. A scenario like that could be in play in parts of the eastern US, regions where power grids are already tight because of bad 'green' energy policies colliding with the era of data centers. Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB AB, commented on Natty prices ripping higher: "This is a textbook winter-driven squeeze: fast, violent, and sentiment-shifting." Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 09:00
US Q3 GDP Revised Up to 4.4%, Highest In Two Years While it's ancient history now - even preceding the record long government shutdown - and nobody will care, moments ago the BEA reported that its first revision of third quarter GDP came in a bit hotter than expected as US GDP grew slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports. Due to the recent government shutdown, this updated report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025, the BEA reported. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, and up 0.1% from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. That said, the change was minuscule: it went up from an unrounded 4.340% to 4.370%. Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected upturns in investment, exports, and government spending, as well as an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter than in the second. Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up. Here is the breakdown: Personal consumption contributed 2.34% to the bottom line, slightly lower than the 2.39% originally reported. Fixed Investment added 0.15%, also revised lower from 0.19% Change in private inventories was a net improvement, raising from -0.22% to -0.12%, if still subtracting from the bottom line Net trade (exports less imports) was also revised favorably up from 1.59% to 1.62% Finally, government added 0.38% to the bottom line print, effectively the same as 0.39% before. And visually: Real gross output increased 3.2% in the third quarter, reflecting increases of 4.4% for private services-producing industries and 2.1% for government that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.1% for private goods-producing industries. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.4% in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 3.4%, the same as previously estimated. From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases of 5.3 percent in real value added for private services-producing industries and 3.6 percent for private goods-producing industries that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.3 percent in real value added for government. Finally, while it's beyond ancient history now, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4% in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.9%, both the same as previously estimated. A much more timely print of core PCE for November will be reported at 10am today. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:57
House To Vote On Bill To Fund The Government Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times, The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a multi-bill package to fund the federal government on Thursday. The legislation includes funding for the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development. Most portions of the bill are expected to pass easily as members of both parties seek to avoid a repeat of the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, that accompanied the previous government funding fight. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are among those, and both leaders have expressed a desire to work with Republicans to pass the 12 annual government funding bills ahead of the Jan. 30 funding deadline. Though it includes some spending cuts, the package largely holds funding levels at fiscal year 2025 rates. Republicans are expected to back the legislation largely along party lines. Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), the lead Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, praised the bill in a statement, saying it “reflects the core tenets of American strength: combat-ready forces, secure communities, effective education and health systems, and modern transportation. At every level, it applies innovation and discipline to deliver results without waste.” In line with leadership’s desire to avoid a government shutdown, the sections of the bill related to funding for the departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development are expected to gain Democratic support as well. However, one segment of the funding has proven divisive. DHS Funding Controversy Ahead of the vote, Democrats came out en masse against the portion of the bill that would fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Democrats have been increasingly critical of the agency that oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), criticism that has only intensified in the wake of the ICE-involved shooting of Renée Nicole Good in Minneapolis. In the aftermath of the shooting, Democrats have called for President Donald Trump to back off on the deployment of ICE agents to Democrat-run areas, while the party’s progressive wing has renewed calls to “abolish ICE.” In Congress, lawmakers have largely urged funding cuts or policy reforms. While this package includes reforms, several Democrats have indicated that they don’t go far enough and have expressed an intention to oppose the bill. Despite this opposition, the DHS funding measure is expected to pass with wide GOP support and support from some Democrats. ICE Reforms The bill would implement several changes to ICE’s policies and procedures. One measure in the bill would provide $20 million to ICE for the procurement and deployment of body cameras for ICE and other immigration agents engaged in domestic law enforcement activities. It would similarly require standardization of ICE and immigration agents’ uniforms. It provides additional funding for civil liberties-related oversight of ICE activities. The bill would also mandate additional training for immigration agents operating within the U.S. interior, with a focus on de-escalation. It also instructs DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to ensure that all immigration agents are properly trained on Americans’ First Amendment right to record federal agents during public operations. It also provides substantially fewer detention beds than were requested by the administration, instead cutting the number. While 50,000 beds were requested, an increase, the bill would cut the total number of detention beds to 41,500, marking a decrease of 5,500 beds. It also slightly reduces funding for enforcement and removal operations, cutting $115 million. However, for many Democrats, these reforms don’t go far enough. Democrats Split Democrats are split on the issue, though many have expressed opposition to the bill. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), a member of the House Appropriations Committee, expressed opposition to the bill in a post on X. “The 2026 Homeland Security funding bill that the House is voting on this week is an easy NO for me. It’s a blank check with no accountability for DHS’s outrageous abuses,” Underwood wrote. Several other House Democrats on the Appropriations subcommittee have similarly indicated plans to oppose the bill. However, others have indicated plans to support the bill or have otherwise said they’re undecided. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic appropriator, has said she'll back the legislation, citing the reforms. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), a moderate in a red-trending district, has also expressed his intention to support the bill. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:45
Rate-Cut Odds Tumble As Jobless Claims Hover Near 56-Year-Lows Following last week's plunge back below 200k, analysts expected a small rise to 209k this week but the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remained flat at 200k. Notably, as is usual at this time of year, non-seasonally-adjusted claims spiked... Source: Bloomberg ...basically hovering at its lowest levels since 1969... Source: Bloomberg New York and Georgia saw the largest drops in jobless claims while Puerto Rico saw a modest increase in claims... Continuing jobless claims also ticked down (to 1.849 million Americans) - the lowest since November... Source: Bloomberg All of which fits with the ebbing of rate-cut expectations for this year... Source: Bloomberg ...likely much to the chagrin of President Trump. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:35
US Futures, Global Markets Rally After Trump Greenland Pivot US equity futures and global stocks are sharply higher as the S&P again marches toward a new ATH while the latest vol spike subsides, after Trump’s tariff pivot eased geopolitical fears, though Greenland and other flashpoints mean the optimistic mood is laced with some caution. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% after the benchmark’s biggest advance since November as a relief rally over President Donald Trump’s pivot on Greenland continued, with a flurry of activity in the artificial-intelligence space adding support to tech stocks: Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.8% as names linked to the build-out of AI-infrastructure outperformed in premarket trading, while all Mag 7 members advanced in premarket trading with Fins/Industrials also standout performers as Staples are mostly lower. The 10-year is flat 4.24%, dollar similar DYX $99 and Bitcoin same place as yesterday $89.8k. Commodities are mixed: nat gas surges for a third day of follow through up 14% prompt to $5.56 – highest level since late 2022 – on bruising cold across the US, while crude, copper, gold all taking a breather this morning as WTI may fall below $60/bbl. Today’s macro data gives an update on Q3 metrics, November spending / PCE, and new jobless claims. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are rallying alongside index futures (Alphabet +2%, Tesla +1%, Microsoft +0.8%, Amazon +1%, Nvidia +0.9%, Apple +0.5%, Meta +1.9%) Venture Global Inc. (VG) is up 10% after the company won a dispute with Spain’s Repsol SA involving the sale of liquefied natural gas shipments from its export plant in Louisiana. Abbott (ABT) falls 4% after posting fourth quarter results. Axogen (AXGN) is down 7% after the health care firm said it will offer $85 million of shares of its common stock. Knight-Swift (KNX) falls 2% after the freight transportation company posted fourth quarter earnings that fell short of expectations. Mobileye (MBLY) drops 6% after the maker of software and hardware technology for automobiles provided revenue guidance for 2026 missed the average analyst estimate. Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) slips 1.6% as growth in a key sales metric stagnated in the latest quarter while volume slipped, showing that US consumers spent cautiously in the final months of the year. Rocket Lab (RKLB) falls 2% after the company said qualification testing of the Stage 1 tank resulted in a rupture during a hydrostatic pressure trial. Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) rises 3% as BTIG upgrades the live entertainment and media company to buy, citing multiple catalysts driving the stock’s upside potential. In corporate news, Lululemon’s founder lashed out over the company’s latest product flop, calling it a “total operational failure” that he blamed on the company’s board of directors. GameStop CEO disclosed the purchase of 500,000 shares of the gaming retailer, sending the stock higher in premarket trading. The rebound in stocks followed Trump’s announcement of a framework agreement with NATO to end a days-long standoff over Greenland. The rally gained momentum on Thursday as NATO’s chief said the breakthrough didn’t involve discussion of the territory’s sovereignty, easing concerns over a key sticking point, focusing rather on the broader issue of security. This week’s events have rewarded TACO trade dip buyers, while also serving as a reminder that volatility is never far away. Fundamentals for 2026 still look excellent, according to Tikehau Capital’s Raphael Thuin. There’s “a rare alignment of stars” going on, with double-digit earnings expected, good economic growth and possible rate cuts. “Despite a very positive market narrative about 2026, geopolitical crisis and US tariffs can fuel volatility spikes at any time,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital in Paris. “The fast-changing AI industry, like last year, also represents both a big upward potential as much as a potential downward risk.” Sentiment was also lifted after Japanese bonds rebounded for a second straight session. Small-cap stocks look set to continue their strong run after outperforming the S&P 500 for 13 straight sessions, with contracts on the Russell 2000 broadly tracking those on the S&P 500 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the AI narrative is back, with Asian chip stocks surging after Wednesday’s bullish comments on AI spending from Nvidia’s Jensen Huang. The theme is getting more juice from news that Anthropic’s revenue run rate is said to have more than doubled since last summer. News that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is preparing to list its chipmaking arm added to a series of upbeat moves in tech after bullish comments from Nvidia Corp. Details emerged that Anthropic PBC’s revenue run rate has more than doubled since last summer, while OpenAI was locked in talks about a fresh funding round at a marked-up valuation. In geopolitics, NATO’s chief said a breakthrough over Greenland was secured without discussing the territory’s sovereignty with Trump, focusing rather on the broader issue of security. Ukraine’s Zelenskiy arrived in Davos to meet with Trump. Speakers at the event today include Elon Musk and Larry Fink. Amid renewed speculation that foreigners may sell US assets, JPMorgan strategists said there’s been little sign of foreign investors shunning US assets amid the Greenland tensions. In other assets, Goldman raised its December 2026 gold price forecast by more than 10% to $5,400 an ounce, on the assumption that investors who bought gold as a hedge will maintain positions. Global natural gas prices continue to soar amid freezing weather. A sweeping crypto market bill is likely to be delayed by several weeks as key lawmakers shift their focus to potential housing legislation in support of Trump’s affordability push. Out of the 52 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 83% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 12% have missed. PCE data for October and November will likely corroborate evidence that tariff pass-through is fading. That could support the case for rate cuts later in the year. Trump suggested that’s he’s down to just one choice for next Fed chair, and said Rick Rieder and Kevin Warsh are good options. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.9% after four days of declines, with telecoms, construction and auto sectors leading the gains. Here are the biggest movers Thursday: Orsted rallied as much as 5.5% after Oddo BHF upgraded to outperform from neutral, citing a “structural change of regime at the Danish offshore wind developer Volkswagen shares rise as much as 6.1% after the German carmaker delivered a positive surprise on free cash flow in its automotive division, driven by improvements in working capital and lower investment spend AB Foods climbs as much as 1.5% after the conglomerate reported first-quarter constant currency sales which Shore Capital analyst Clive Black (hold) said were “a bit better” than the group guided for earlier this month Aryzta shares jump as much as 14%, the most in more than three years, as analysts see the Swiss baker’s 2025 performance and outlook for the coming year as a first step to regain investor trust Baltic Classifieds Group shares rise as much as 6.9% after Morgan Stanley initiates the online classifieds company at overweight, citing its regional leadership position across verticals and a favorable macro backdrop Basic resources is the worst-performing sector in Europe on Thursday after copper declined to its lowest intraday level in almost two weeks, weighing on miners Essity drops as much as 5.3%, with a miss on sales overshadowing an adjusted Ebita beat by the Swedish personal care products producer Bankinter shares decline as much as 2.9%, the only lender declining on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after the Spanish bank reported earnings in line with analysts expectations Wickes shares climb as much as 2.2% after the home improvement products retailer reported “solid” second-half results, with analysts encouraged by evidence of market share gains Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, poised to snap a three-day losing streak, after US President Donald Trump retreated from his tariff threat on European nations and investors returned to tech stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%, boosted by tech shares — including TSMC and Samsung Electronics — after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comment about AI spending fueled optimism for the sector. South Korea’s stock benchmark Kospi briefly crossed the 5,000-level, a threshold targeted by the country’s president during his campaign last year. In FX we saw muted moves with the dollar little changed. The pound was little changed. In rates, treasuries are little changed, lagging most European bond markets but outperforming gilts, hit by potential UK leadership challenge to Prime Minister Starmer. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims and November personal income and spending data — which embeds PCE price indexes — and $21 billion 10-year TIPS auction. US 10-year yield near 4.24% is within 1bp of Wednesday’s closing level with UK counterpart about 2bp cheaper on the day and Germany’s richer by about 1.5bp. Gilts underperformed European peers after a pathway for a potential leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer emerged. In commodities, gold erases an earlier decline, trading little changed around $4,830/oz. Oil prices falling, with Brent slipping toward $64/barrel and extending after Trump comments on potential talks with Iran. Gas surged 14% to $5.56, its third day of gains, on freezing cold. US economic calendar includes third estimate of 3Q GDP and jobless claims (8:30am), November personal income and spending (10am) and January Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am) Market Wrap S&P 500 mini +0.6% Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8% Russell 2000 mini +0.5% Stoxx Europe 600 +1.3% DAX +1.4% CAC 40 +1.3% 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.24% VIX -0.8 points at 16.07 Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1205.89 euro little changed at $1.1687 WTI crude -1.1% at $59.93/barrel Top Overnight News NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Greenland’s sovereignty wasn’t discussed with Trump but that talks centered on Arctic security in a “practical sense.” BBG Emboldened by the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration is searching for Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime by the end of the year. WSJ US House GOP leaders are struggling to strike a deal with Republican hard-liners tonight that would allow the final government funding package to advance. "The Rules Committee recessed Wednesday evening without a solution. Senior Rs hope to reconvene the panel by 9 pm": Politico Volodymyr Zelenskiy is traveling to Davos to meet with Trump, a person familiar said. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will go to Russia for talks with Vladimir Putin. BBG It took just $280 million of trading to push Japan's government bond market into meltdown, with a $41 billion wipeout across the Japanese curve. The disconnect between the size of the wipeout and the amount that actually traded shows how Japan's sometimes illiquid bond market has become a weak spot in the global financial system. BBG For the first time since the start of the private-credit boom, large numbers of individual investors are trying to get their money out. Several of the biggest funds eligible to wealthy individuals received requests from about 5% of shareholders to cash out at the end of last year, well above the normal volume, according to SEC filings. WSJ South Korea isn’t delaying the first $20 billion tranche of its US investment pledge, Finance Minister Koo Yun Cheol said. Project selection is ongoing, making execution unlikely in the first half. BBG Japan’s exports rose a less-than-expected 5.1% in December. South Korea’s economy unexpectedly shrank last quarter. The Malaysian central bank kept its policy rate at 2.75% as expected. BBG US natural gas surged to the highest since 2022, jumping more than 70% in three days as brutal cold lifts demand amid short covering. A storm is set to hit starting tomorrow, plunging Texas into a deep freeze that may also disrupt production. BBG The Fed will finally get core PCE data for October and November today. Both headline and core inflation are expected to rise year on year, but the monthly figures will probably indicate that tariff pass-through is fading. BBG Trade/Tariffs Switzerland's Parmelin via X said he had a very constructive talks with USTR Greer. UK Business Secretary Kyle said the European customs unions is not currently on the radar of the UK government. China's Commerce Ministry said China is concerned with the EU excluding some of Chinese tech suppliers. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded entirely in the green, tracking the rebound on Wall Street after President Trump withdrew plans for additional tariffs on EU countries. ASX 200 opened around +0.8%, lifted by the improved global tone after US tariff removal, though the index later dipped following a hotter-than-expected Australian jobs report. Nikkei 225 posted firm gains of nearly 2%, snapping a five-day losing streak as chipmakers and financials advanced and JGBs stabilised. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp the laggards, despite a brief recovery tech and easing trade-tension concerns after the US rollback of tariffs. Top Asian News Australia's Nationals Leader said coalition can no longer continue. European equities (STOXX 600 +1.3%) are firmer across the board. Sentiment has tracked tailwinds from APAC and Wall St which traded higher after market sentiment was kept at ease following Trump’s Davos speech where he vowed to not use military action against NATO allies and later withdrew tariff plans on some European countries. European sectors are all in the green. Autos takes the top spot, boosted by gains in Volkswagen (+5%) and Michelin (+3.3%) after providing positive trading updates. Top European News German Chancellor Merz said there needs to be significant defence investment. FX DXY is currently flat and trades within a narrow 98.72 to 98.82 range; the low for the day coincides with its 200 DMA. Some further pressure in the index could see the test of its 100 DMA (98.69). Focus this morning has been solely on US President Trump, who provided updates on both Greenland and the Fed. Starting with the former, Trump mentioned that he had a very productive meeting with NATO's Rutte, and they have formed a framework for a future deal. Notably, Trump announced that the scheduled tariffs on eight European countries would not go ahead – leading to a familiar “TACO” trade to take place across markets. Elsewhere, on the Fed, Trump said he would like to keep NEC Director Hassett when he is, and now has two or three left in mind for the Chair role. This follows familiar commentary from last Friday, which spurred some strength in the Dollar as markets come to terms with a potentially less dovish appointment; Polymarket odds show Warsh (44%) as the favourite, Rieder (31%) and then Waller (14%). G10s are broadly firmer against the Dollar; Antipodeans lead with clear outperformance in the AUD after a hotter-than-expected jobs report. Elsewhere, the JPY is the G10 underperformer this morning, and trades within a 158.17 to 158.89 range; high for the day marks a WTD peak, though still shy of its YTD high at 159.45. Overnight pressure in the JPY was attributed to December exports/trade balance missing expectations. Since, the JPY was mildly strengthened on reports that Japan now forecasts the primary balance to be in a deficit (prev. forecast surplus) in FY26. At face value, a negative, but perhaps given the relatively small deficit amount, eases recent fiscal-related fears. Finally, Norges Bank kept rates steady at its January meeting and largely reiterated the commentary/guidance from the December confab. As such, there was little reaction in EUR/NOK. Fixed Income A relatively contained start for fixed income after a tumultuous first few sessions of the week. As it stands, the complex is awaiting geopolitical updates from the numerous meetings and briefings scheduled for today, the first of which is due now at the Peace Board signing with President Trump. From these, we look for clarity that the TACO narrative around Greenland is correct, and if the reporting around a deal like the one the UK has with Cyprus is correct. For fixed, this leaves USTs and Bunds firmer with gains of three and 13 ticks respectively. Just eclipsing Wednesday's 111-22 best for USTs, while Bunds have a little way to go to first recoup the 128.00 figure and then get to Wednesday's 128.25 high. Gilts outperform, on the back of a smaller-than-expected level of UK borrowing in December. The latest PSNB figure of GBP 11.6bln was around GBP 2.5bln below consensus. Despite the elevated level and still precarious state of UK finances, the December print has been enough to lift Gilts by 39 ticks at best to a 92.12 peak, eclipsing Wednesday's 92.04 best but still shy of the 92.51 WTD peak from Monday. Commodities Crude is on the backfoot, as the TACO trade takes the sting out of a near-term escalation on Greenland. However, we still wait to see details on how the deal will be done and exactly what the US will walk away with and demand; initial reporting suggests it will be similar to the UK-Cyprus arrangement. Further pressure also stemming from the Private inventory report, which posted a larger-than-expected headline crude build. WTI and Brent down to USD 60/bbl and USD 64.57/bbl, lower by c. USD 0.60/bbl. European gas is on the back foot, lower by around a EUR/MWh for Dutch TTF. However, this comes after the benchmark extended to a EUR 41.92/MWh peak early doors, a move driven by US NatGas settling higher by some 25% on Wednesday, alongside continued focus on the European & APAC cold spell. Spot gold has been tarnished by the removal of near-term risk premia by Trump's tariff U-turn. However, the numerous geopolitical meetings and opportunities for commentary today mean a return of premia is a real possibility. As it stands, XAU is holding at USD 4822/oz, having recovered from the USD 4772/oz overnight low but pushed lower once again in recent trade after the PBoC commentary that they will be increasing their supervision of the gold market. US Energy Secretary Wright said global oil production would need to more than double to meet rising demand and prevent energy poverty. US President Trump is reportedly personally controlling the release of funds generated from Venezuela's oil, Semafor reported citing an official. PBoC to reportedly strengthen supervision of the gold market, via Xinhua. Japanese copper smelters reportedly remain in discussions over charges for 2026 with miners. China's UBS SDIC silver futures fund will be suspended form market open until 10:30 am local time (2:30am GM) on the 23rd January. MMG (1208 HK) reported Q4 copper production of 108.6k/T of output, -7% Y/Y. Goldman Sachs raises its year-end gold price target to USD 5,400/oz (prev. USD 4,900/oz). US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +3.0mln (exp. +1.8mln), Distillate -0.03mln (exp. -0.2mln), Gasoline +6.2mln (exp. +2.5mln), Cushing +1.2mln. Geopolitics: Ukraine Russia's Kremlin said meeting between US envoy Witkoff and Russian President Putin will be after 7-8pm Moscow time. US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky are set to meet at 12:00 GMT, via a Spokesman. US envoy Witkoff said a lot of progress has been made on Ukraine, getting to the end. Believes tariff free zone would be a gamechanger. Ukraine's top negotiator Umerov said he met with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, discussed security guarantees and post-war reconstruction. Geopolitics: Middle East A Palestinian source said there is an understanding between Hamas and the US administration that the organization will hand over its weapons and tunnel maps in exchange for recognition as a political organisation, via Sky news. US ambassador said all options are on the table [on Iran] and President Trump will keep his promise. Israeli military source quoted by local press: "The US military is mobilizing large capabilities in the region in preparation for the possibility of a large-scale confrontation with Iran", Sky News Arabia reported. "Concern in Tel Aviv that Washington will strike Iran hard at first and then withdraw its forces quickly and leave Israel facing a new reality on the ground". "Tel Aviv doubts the ability of the United States to find a real alternative to the Iranian regime in the event of its overthrow". Geopolitics: Others The Trump administration is actively seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of 2026, the WSJ reported citing sources; the administration assess Cuba's economy as weak following the capture of Venezuela's Maduro. The proposal by NATO's Rutte does not include the transfer of overall sovereignty, Axios reported citing sources; the plan includes the increase of security in Greenland and NATO activity in the Arctic. NATO's Secretary General Rutte said the issue of Greenland remaining with Denmark did not come up in his conversation with President Trump. NATO's Rutte said there is still a lot of work to be done for the Greenland deal, AFP reported. US President Trump’s deal for Greenland is said to involve small pockets of land, according to NYT. Greenland deal is reportedly to involve small pockets of land, the NYT reported. German Finance Minister, on US President Trump's Greenland deal, said have to wait and not get hopes up too soon. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: 3Q T GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3% 8:30 am: 3Q T Personal Consumption, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5% 8:30 am: 3Q T GDP Price Index, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8% 8:30 am: 3Q T Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9% 8:30 am: Jan 17 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 209k, prior 198k 8:30 am: Jan 10 Continuing Claims, est. 1890k, prior 1884k 10:00 am: Nov Personal Income, est. 0.4% 10:00 am: Nov Personal Spending, est. 0.5% 10:00 am: Nov Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3% 10:00 am: Nov PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2% 10:00 am: Nov PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.79% 10:00 am: Nov Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2% 10:00 am: Nov Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Now where were we before the weekend news? We've seen a big recovery over the last 18 hours after Mr Trump has seemingly agreed a deal on Greenland with the tariff threat for February 1st being withdrawn. Indeed, the lows for the week came pretty much just before Mr Trump spoke at Davos. The first sense of relief for markets came after Trump’s suggestion that the US wouldn’t use force to acquire Greenland. This then strengthened after the European close, as Trump posted that he would not be imposing the threatened tariffs starting February 1st, citing agreement on “the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland”. So that led to a big relief rally as investors priced out escalatory scenarios, with financial stress easing across multiple asset classes. The S&P (+1.16%) rose, and the return to US assets meant 10yr Treasury yields rallied by -5.0bps, and US HY spreads (-7bps) also tightened. That said, gold prices (+1.43%) hit another record of $4,832/oz, taking its YTD gain up to +11.86% already, even as they briefly fell to flat on the day after Trump’s post. The framework deal over Greenland was apparently reached in Trump’s meeting with NATO Secretary General Rutte. Trump did not offer specific details but called the deal “a little bit complex” in a CNBC interview, suggesting that it would cover issues like mineral rights and the planned Golden Dome missile-defence shield and would last “forever”. The New York Times reported that a compromise option discussed within NATO earlier in the day would see the US taking control over small pockets of Greenland for military bases, with Axios reporting that the proposal will respect Denmark's overall sovereignty over the island. So, while it’s not yet clear exactly what concessions the US will be getting, these appear to have been markedly scaled back compared to Trump’s recent demands for "complete and total control" of Greenland. Earlier in the session, markets had rallied after Trump said in his Davos speech that “People thought I would use force. I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force”, which eased fears about a military escalation. However, there was still lingering uncertainty as Trump also said he was “seeking immediate negotiations to once again, discuss the acquisition of Greenland by the United States”. Indeed, markets gave up much of their initial gain after Denmark’s foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said “We will not enter into any negotiations on the basis of giving up fundamental principles. That is something we will never do”. His tone changed after Trump’s announcement of a framework deal, with Rasmussen saying “The day is ending on a better note than it began”. Risk assets similarly breathed a big sigh of relief after Trump’s post, with the S&P 500 rising by as much as +1.67% intra-day before closing +1.16%. This was a broad rally with all 11 of the index’s sector groups higher on the day, with tariff-sensitive sectors outperforming. Indeed, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+3.18%) hit an all-time high, while the pharma & biotech industry group (+2.34%) was one of the biggest advancers in the S&P 500. Still, the relief rally left the S&P nearly one percent below Friday’s close. Another US asset that struggled to fully recover was the dollar. The greenback rose +0.34% against the euro, erasing about a third of its decline since Friday. Whilst the Greenland news was main the driver boosting markets, another supportive factor was the start of the Supreme Court case into Lisa Cook’s removal from the Fed’s Board of Governors. We don’t have a verdict yet, but the start of arguments showed that some of the conservative justices were questioning some of the Trump administration’s arguments. For example, Justice Brett Kavanaugh said that it would “weaken if not shatter the independence of the Federal Reserve.” So that was viewed as favouring the chances the court would rule against Cook’s removal, which in turn would make it harder for Trump to refashion the Board with his own appointees. Together with the Greenland news, this helped drive a bull flattening in Treasuries. At the long-end of the curve, which has been most sensitive to concerns around Fed independence, 30yr yields were down -5.7bps on the day to 4.86%, whilst the 10yr yield fell -5.0bps to 4.24%. By contrast, 2yr yields fell by a marginal -1.1bps on the day, having been down -3bps intra-day shortly before Trump spoke in Davos. Yields are flat to a basis point higher across the curve this morning. Over in Europe, markets had a relatively weaker performance, with bonds and equities struggling to gain traction but rallying from the day’s lows after the Trump speech with futures higher this morning. The STOXX 600 (-0.02%) was basically flat on the day, with losses for Germany’s DAX (-0.58%) set against gains for the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.11%) and France’s CAC 40 (+0.08%). Notably, we also saw European defence stocks underperform as fears eased about a military escalation, with Rheinmetall down -2.91%. However, Stoxx (+1.17%) and Dax (+1.27%) futures are higher this morning. Then for sovereign bonds, there was also a fresh bout of losses, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.4bps), OATs (+1.7bps) and BTPs (+2.8bps) all moving higher. That comes as concerns around energy inflation have continued to gain traction, with European natural gas futures touching €40/MWh for the first time since June amid recent cold weather and declining gas storage. Here in the UK, 10yr gilts (0.0bps) were a relative outperformer after the latest inflation print for December. It showed headline CPI picking up a bit more than expected to +3.4% (vs. +3.3% expected), but core CPI surprised on the downside at +3.2% (vs. +3.3% expected) which helped to offset the headline beat. In Asia, the Nikkei (+2.01%) is leading the gains driven by bank stocks with the KOSPI (+0.87%) supported by chipmakers and autos. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.75%) is also firm following unexpectedly robust jobs data for December (details below). Conversely, Chinese stocks are flattish. S&P 500 (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.30%) futures are edging up further. 10 and 30yr JGB yields are -4.0bps and -5.0bps lower respectively. Returning to Australia, the unemployment rate has decreased to a seven-month low of 4.1% from 4.3% in November, better than market expectations of 4.4%. Net employment surged by 65,200 in December compared to November, which saw a revised drop of 28,700. This figure significantly exceeded market forecasts of a 27,000 increase, while full-time employment rebounded by 54,800, in contrast to a decline of 56,500 in the preceding month. Against this background, the Australian dollar (+0.62%) is appreciating, trading at 0.6804 against the US dollar, marking its highest level in 15 months, while three-year government bond yields (+7.6bps) have reached a more than two-year high of 4.25% as we go to print. Meanwhile, markets are anticipating a 61% probability of a rate hike from the RBA on February 3rd, an increase from 26% prior to the data release. Separately, exports in Japan increased for the fourth month in a row, rising by +5.1% year-on-year in December. This marks a decrease from the +6.1% increase observed in November and fell short of the median prediction of a +6.1% gain. Meanwhile, imports grew +5.3% year-on-year, surpassing the anticipated rise of +3.6%. This indicates stronger domestic demand and elevated input costs. Consequently, Japan reported a trade surplus of ¥105.7 billion, which is considerably less than the expected surplus of approximately ¥360.0 billion. Looking at the day ahead, US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, the updated estimate of Q3 GDP and PCE inflation for November. In the Euro Area, we’ll also get the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for January. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s account of their December meeting. Finally, today’s earnings include Intel, General Electric, and Procter & Gamble. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:30
Das: Trump's Spat With The Fed Is Not About Central Bank Independence Authored by Satyajit Das via New India Express, The spat between the White House and Fed Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell, a President Trump appointment, is hardly unusual. Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon bullied the central bank to lower interest rates. Central banks function as the government’s banker, issue currency, maintain the payment system and manage the nation’s currency reserves. They safeguard financial stability acting as a lender of last resort to banks although separate bodies sometimes regulate the financial system. The contentious part of their mandate is controlling money supply and setting interest rates. Central bank independence is recent. In 1990, New Zealand legislated inflation targeting which was adopted by other nations. The concept was that an independent institution would determine monetary policy and maintain price stability minimising opportunities for politicians to use interest rates to boost economic activity especially around elections. The context was the high inflation era of the 1970s and 1980s. It was convenient to transfer painful choices to central bankers allowing governments to blame others or claim credit depending on outcomes. The case for independence is unclear. The objectives, such as relative price stability, growth, and employment, are frequently contradictory. It is unclear which of multiple measures of price levels is to be prioritised. The 2 to 3 percent inflation objective is arbitrary. Empirical studies suggest that fear of deflation may be unwarranted. There are differences on what constitutes full employment. Data, rarely timely, has methodological problems. The representativeness of items used to measure inflation is contested. Unpaid work, zero-hour agreements and contracting complicates labour statistics. Resource scarcity or sustainability are ignored. Central banks have limited tools – interest rates, regulating money supply through open market operations, quantitative easing (buying government debt) and forward guidance (open mouth operations or jawboning). Budgets, the currency, international capital flows, and geo-politics (sanctions, trade restrictions) are outside its control. The underlying economic models focus on NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) or the Phillips Curve, a simplistic trade-off between unemployment and inflation. In practice, these relationships are unreliable. Cause and effect are difficult to differentiate. There is no agreement on a neutral (not contractionary or expansionary) interest rate. Central bankers constantly validate Laurence J. Peter’s judgement: “an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.” The problems are compounded by training and backgrounds which lend themselves to groupthink. Central bankers are economists, usually trained at the same universities, who spend their working life around the institution, government or academe and limited commercial experience. Central banks are run by economists providing employment for their tribe. Independent members rarely second guess staff recommendations, even if they have the expertise and information. Originally reticent, central banks, following the lead of former Fed Chairperson Alan ‘Maestro’ Greenspan, have embraced celebrity. Inscrutable invisibility has given way to volubility, X handles, and Delphic oratory. They play to financial markets with an excessive focus on asset prices which do not uniformly benefit all citizens. Politicians, never happy to share the limelight, increasingly resent the power and public profile of these unelected technocrats. They begrudge having to seek approbation for their policies. US Presidents found themselves forced to kowtow to the all-powerful Greenspan. They increasingly are wary of the threat to their position and re-election that central banks may pose. Central banks’ records are unconvincing. The Great Moderation of the 1990s and early 2000s, for which central bankers unashamedly claimed credit, was driven by lower rates, the result of Paul Volcker using punitive rates with high human cost to bring down inflation, as well as the entry of China, India and Russia into the global trading system and the growth of information technology. After the shocks of 2000 and 2008, hubristic central bankers used public money to rescue the system without addressing root causes. After 2020, they grossly misread price pressures regarding them as supposedly ‘transitory’. They have persistently ignored the side-effects of their policies such as asset price inflation, rising debt levels, capital allocation distortions, financing governments and social issues like inequality and housing affordability. The current environment is different, characterised by low growth, slackening trade, challenges to free capital flows and geopolitical uncertainty. Interest rates are less effective in boosting economic activity. Inflation is less responsive to slack in the economy. Government borrowing in the aftermath of the crashes and the pandemic have created unsustainably high public debt and ongoing interest expenses which is unlikely to abate given aging populations, rising welfare costs and tax cuts. The increasingly populist political environment favours low interest rates, high growth, and jobs. This is allied to suspicion of powerful elite central bankers insensitive to ordinary people’s concerns combined with an internationalist bent which favours globalisation. Vice-chairman of the US House of Representatives financial services committee Patrick McHenry questioned the right of then Fed Chair Janet Yellen to negotiate financial stability rules with “global bureaucrats in foreign lands without . . . the authority to do so.” Given his sharp political instincts, President Trump senses an opportunity to undermine central bank authority if only by appointing voting Fed governors who favour his desire for short-term rates as low as 1 percent. Rather than institutional reform, the motivation is furtherance of financial repression to disguise sovereign insolvency and maintain artificially high stock and property prices. Lower rates would allow continuation of profligate governments, with tax cuts and higher spending in sectors like defence and national security which favour the government’s business constituents. Negative real rates and self-fulfilling expectations of inflation are designed to allow the government to inflate away its rising debts and devalue the currency to improve competitiveness. The policy entails transferring wealth from domestic and overseas savers to borrowers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has suggested that the US will de facto use foreign wealth to rebuild American industry and employment through policies forcing foreigners to invest in US industries as directed by the Administration while at the same time reduce the value of overseas investors holdings by weakening the dollar or worse. Interestingly, the President’s modus operandi for government policy is similar to that he used in his business. Trump enterprises sought growth at all costs. They borrowed big and defaulted if things did not work out. Framed by the Administration’s critics around central bank independence, the opposition to Trump’s agenda has little to do with the subject. The governing classes’ concern is around the realisation that the Federal Reserve is now one of the few remaining institutions that offers any check on Presidential power given the weakening of Congress, the public sector, and the judiciary. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:05
