Zerohedge

Global Diesel Crunch Deepens As Record US Distillate Exports Race To Supply-Starved Europe US distillate exports surged to a record last week as global supplies tightened. Disruptions across the Gulf area and various surrounding maritime chokepoints, as well as Ukrainian one-way attack drone strikes that have paralyzed portions of Russia's energy infrastructure, have been a major boon for US refiners and export terminals along the Gulf of America. To begin the week, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV, "The situation in Russia is really one thing that worries us a lot." Dart warned, "I'd say on the oil side, as I mentioned before, diesel, I think is the oil product that is most vulnerable right now, not just because you have your seasonal demand strength ahead just in the winter, but on the supply side. And to your point in the beginning, it's not just that you run war, it's what's happening to the Russian refineries as well. And Russia is usually a pretty big exporter of diesel. And now they have restricted it." Last month, Goldman analyst Daan Struyven warned that "Diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze."  As global supplies dwindle, US energy exporters on the Gulf of America emerged as the winners, shipping a record 1.9 million barrels to overseas customers last week. Shipments have exceeded 1.5 million barrels a day for five consecutive weeks, with recent cargoes heading to northwestern European ports - the epicenter of a global diesel shortage caused by Gulf area refinery disruptions through Hormuz and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining capacity. The trade-off from surging diesel exports is that US distillate stockpiles have fallen to their lowest seasonal level since 1996, raising the risk of a tighter domestic market heading into the fall demand surge. Must Read: "Diesel Is At Epicenter Of Supply Squeeze,": Goldman "Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night Let’s not forget that Saudi Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz were reopened today, it could take up to 18 months to replenish global inventories. All told, America is once again rescuing Europe from a deepening energy crunch - first LNG - this time diesel. You're welcome. Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 14:05

Change Of Plans? By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank Brent prices held steady just below the $80-level, as Iran said it reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not the Iran-US deal that Trump had been eyeing, but this agreement raises the prospect of more energy flows resuming through the critical waterway. However, Iran has also said that the deal does not work until the US stops blocking traffic. We are yet to hear when the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ships – if Trump does not revert to threats of air strikes instead. The course of events once again underlines Iran’s relatively strong negotiating position. Days after the Japanese Ministry of Finance –and the US Treasury– intervened in FX markets to prop up the yen, the cabinet approved a plan to cut the sales tax on food for two years. On top of that, the government is planning handouts to lower-income households. High costs of living are weighing on PM Takaichi’s popularity. So, she wants to lessen the price pressure on households, but these tax measures may shift those pressures elsewhere. The tax cut costs JPY 4 trillion (around 0.6% of GDP) in lost revenues annually, and the government did not specify how it would fund this shortfall. The prime minister tried to reassure investors that the measures are temporary, and Finance Minister Katayama pledged to refrain from financing this tax cut through Japan’s deficit. The unfunded tax plan has drawn criticism from both the opposition and people within the ruling LDP, as well as market participants - although today’s 30-year bond auction showed little sign of concern or investor fatigue. Having said that, the real litmus test may be the currency. Over the past couple of days, the yen has been gradually depreciating again after the joint US-Japan intervention briefly pushed USD/JPY below 156 on Friday. The FX market is probably watching for signs of new interventions, or signs of more structural support for the currency. Yet, these tax cuts do not lead to investments that could structurally improve Japan’s economic growth – which could have lent JPY some of the necessary support. But, paradoxically, the cost of effective growth-enhancing policies would probably eclipse the budgetary implications of Takaichi’s food tax cuts. Former prime minister, and advisor to the current PM, Kishida warns of this as well. He advocates a JPY 370 trillion long-term growth strategy, which he believes could largely be funded by Japan’s large amounts of private financial assets: “If we limit our thinking to the government’s own fiscal resources, then that’s the end of it.” He argues the government should merely function as a catalyst for these investments, rather than pony up all the funds. If the government manages to convince Japanese households, companies, and pension funds, the plans could see Japan clash with allies. These funds are currently invested elsewhere, and the structure of the recent JPY intervention suggests that Washington does not like the idea that Japan could start selling its Treasury holdings. The US Treasury sold euros, rather than dollars, for yens, and it also suggested Japan make use of the Fed’s FIMA (repo) accounts, instead of selling dollar assets outright. Besides that, the growth strategy itself could also lead to conflicts: Kishida suggests the Japanese economy could benefit from investments in semiconductor and AI industries. Even if these sectors continue to grow in the coming decade, that strategy competes directly with the direction of, say, US, EU, and Chinese policies targeting homegrown chips and AI. Elsewhere, Fed Chair Warsh is reportedly still in close contact with Trump. The US president discussed the economic implications of various matters, such as the Iran war or AI. It is an unusually close connection between the White House and the Eccles Building compared to their predecessors. The Wall Street Journal’s sources suggest that these informal calls were mainly Trump seeking council from the Fed chair. Whether that’s true or not, it confirms what our US strategist has been saying: the FOMC will probably be more aligned with the White House going forward. The Dutch government has endorsed Klaas Knot’s candidacy for ECB president. The Spanish government had already put forward his former colleague De Cos. So, with two candidates in the running, the race to find Lagarde’s replacement is now officially on. Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 12:45

"Threat Against American Interests": US Halts Michoacán Avocado Inspections, Putting Critical Supplies At Risk The US suspended avocado inspections in Mexico's Michoacán state after the US Embassy cited a "threat against American interests." Because Michoacán is Mexico's largest avocado-producing region and a top supplier to the US market, any prolonged suspension risks disrupting imports and driving supermarket prices sharply higher. Michoacán Gov. Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla said on social media that the temporary halt to inspections was intended to safeguard workers following recent arrests linked to extortion, according to AP News. Michoacán supplies about 75% to 80% of Mexico's avocados, while Mexico accounted for more than 80% of US avocado imports in 2025, valued at over $3 billion. Supplies from Peru, California, and Mexico's Jalisco state could limit shortages and price increases if the suspension is brief, Rabobank analyst David Magana said.  Wholesale prices for first-quality Michoacán Hass avocados sold at Mexico City's Central de Abasto have nearly doubled in recent months, signaling tightening conditions in Mexico's domestic supply chain even before the latest inspection disruption. "These alternative sources should help mitigate supply shortages and limit upward pressure on prices, particularly if the suspension is temporary," Magana noted. AP said that the western state of Michoacán is home to four narcoterrorist cartels that make money through drug trafficking, extortion, and even the avocado industry. The duration of the disruption will determine the extent of upward pressure on US wholesale avocado prices and how quickly those increases filter through to supermarket shelves.   Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 12:05

Camp David Clash: Trump Hammered Hegseth For Misleading Him On Arms Supply, WaPo Reports Following reports that US forces have "used up virtually all" of their precision, long-range missiles in futile attempts to first trigger an Iranian regime change and then to compel Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, now comes reporting that an angry President Trump confronted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in recent days, accusing the Pentagon of misleading him on critical munitions shortages that leave Trump increasingly powerless in the five-month-old fiasco of a war.  According to sources cited by the Washington Post, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to concern about retaliation, Trump's ire erupted alongside a cabinet meeting held Friday at Camp David. Trump expressed consternation that he'd been assured that the weapon shortage "had been fixed" when that is apparently far from true.      The Post's administration sources portrayed Hegseth as one of the biggest and most persuasive proponents of launching a regime-change war on Iran (Photo: The Hill) According to "multiple officials" who -- reading between the lines -- clearly seem to have had it with Fox News talking-head-suddenly-turned-Defense-secretary, Hegseth defended his own actions and tried redirecting the blame to Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg, a billionaire GOP donor whom Trump plucked out of his role as co-CEO of Cerberus Capital Management to give him the number-two job at the Pentagon. Hegseth was said to have thrown Feinberg under the bus for both the shortages and failing to keep Trump fully informed.   The officials characterized Trump as increasingly exasperated by Hegseth, whom they describe as one of the most enthusiastic supporters of launching a war on Iran, saying he persuaded Trump that victory would come quickly and easily. The war that the administration once projected to last three or four weeks is now in its sixth month. Iran has used both its sophisticated missile technology and its inexpensive but huge arsenal of drones to wreak havoc on US and allied forces around the Gulf. Hammered by a shock and awe campaign peppered with the multiple incidents involving mass casualties among innocents -- including scores of elementary schoolgirls -- the Iranian people have rallied around the Islamic regime, for all its faults. At least 18 US service members lay dead, several hundred have been wounded, and some estimates of the war's cost to date exceed $100 billion.   Sources tell Reuters the Pentagon has blown through "virtually all" of its long-range ATACMS missiles  The White House and Pentagon denied the account given by the Washington Post's sources. “This is 100% fake news. Literally never happened. And President Trump has the utmost confidence in Secretary Hegseth,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Post. Speaking more broadly, Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell said "claims about depleted stockpiles, internal disagreements, [and] the Secretary’s position on Iran" are "fictional." As for Hegseth's job security, Parnell said he "isn't going anywhere." On Tuesday, Reuters reported that the US munitions crisis is even worse than previously understood. In particular, the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) are said to be running critically low. "Washington has used virtually all of these weapons," two sources told Reuters, after several media reports and think tank studies had already sounded the alarm over dwindling missiles amid both the Iran war and in the years-long process of supplying Ukraine. Low Patriot defense missile supplies have also been a persisting issue in the headlines. Over the weekend, Trump's backtracking on his threat to launch “the biggest attack since World War II" was widely attributed to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urging Trump to refrain, fearing a large attack would accomplish little more than triggering massive and devastating retaliation against the kingdom and other Gulf states. Trump's calculus also likely reflected Pentagon warnings about its shrinking capacity to attack. On Saturday, the Post reported that the commander of US European Command told superiors, in writing, that his forces were stretched thin, and that he might be put in a position where he'd have to choose between defending his "homeland" or the State of Israel. His candor was praiseworthy, but it may have put a dent in his prospects for advancement.  Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 11:25

Musk Responds To French Green Leader's Demand That X Be Shut Down Update (1100ET): Upon seeing this exclamation from the dismally-polling Green leader. Elon Musk took to X (the platform she demands be shutdown for too much free-speechifying) to make some demands of his own... I demand that she be shut down for treason against France! — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 6, 2026 As Remix News detailed earlier, French Green leader Marine Tondelier has reiterated her calls for social media platform X to be temporarily shut down, claiming its owner Elon Musk is using it to interfere in French politics and promote Marine Le Pen ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Tondelier, general secretary of the Ecologists and a declared presidential candidate, suggested that suspending X for one month would improve political debate in France. “If X were to stop for a month, it would do a world of good for the French public debate,” she said, as cited by Libération. She claimed the platform could not be treated merely as a question of freedom of expression or freedom of enterprise because it was controlled from the United States by an owner seeking to influence European politics. “This tool is owned by someone based in the United States, with a supremacist ideology, who clearly wants to push Europe into total submission to the United States,” Tondelier said. She also accused Musk of wanting Le Pen elected and argued that his intervention exposed what she described as the “hypocrisy” of the National Rally’s patriotism. “The algorithm of this social network is rigged,” she claimed. “The ‘ratings’ meant to indicate the veracity of posts are now a source of further fake news.” Tondelier also complained that environmental claims she posts on the platform are routinely challenged and said female politicians face persistent cyberbullying. In January last year, she said, “This network must be banned in Europe. Whether I leave it or not, it will still have an impact on the real world. It will contribute to destabilizing the next elections,” adding that X was a “source of suffering, as a politician and as a woman.” Her comments followed Musk’s public endorsement of Le Pen last month. Responding to an American account discussing her polling strength and the possibility of mass deportations under a National Rally government, Musk wrote, “She is France’s last hope.” Despite the outburst, Tondelier remains a marginal contender in the presidential race. Recent IFOP polling places her support at about 4 percent, with other surveys putting her between 3 and 5 percent. Le Pen, by contrast, is polling at approximately 35 percent and is strongly positioned to reach the second round of the election. Read more here... Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 10:30

Senate Panel Holds Fauci In Contempt For Refusing To Answer Questions Anthony Fauci has been held in contempt of Congress by the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, after he repeatedly refused to answer lawmakers' questions about funding risky research to genetically manipulate bat coronavirus in Wuhan China, and his role in the ensuing lockdown quagmire that cratered the economy after he was put in charge of leading the COVID-19 response.  Oh, and they obtained a copy of his cell phone.  In an 8-5 vote brought by Committee Chairman Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), the contempt vote seeks to refer the case directly to the DOJ for prosecution - bypassing a full vote from the Senate.  "Seeking the truth is not a witch hunt," Paul said be fore the vote, per the WSJ. "Accountability is not vengeance. Accountability is what stands between the American people and a repeat of the mistakes and the very real consequences of the past."  The Committee's top Democrat, Sen. Gary Peters, called the investigation "one-sided from the beginning," claiming that "Information has been selectively released to support conclusions that the chairman reached years ago."  The minority keeps trying to hijack the Fauci hearings with the lie that we haven’t shared the records from this investigation with them. This is a cop-out lie. This has been an intentionally open and transparent investigation. Not one Democrat on the committee cared enough to… pic.twitter.com/hHGtQDV5Ez — Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) August 6, 2026 Which of course is complete bullshit. Fauci funded the research, botched the response after COVID-19 broke out, lied about it under oath, and then pleaded the 5th when receipts came out.   WATCH: Democrats across the board vote to protect Dr. Anthony Fauci. pic.twitter.com/y9xm1mFDbc — Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) August 6, 2026 Committee Chairman Rand Paul, R-Ky., questions Fauci on Wednesday.Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images Or, as Paul wrote prior to the vote: "Dr. Fauci appeared under subpoena and invoked the Fifth Amendment to refuse answering questions. During the hearing, I ruled that the Fifth Amendment did not apply because of the pardon, and that Fauci had waived any remaining privilege by giving opening testimony. I ordered him to answer and warned him about contempt, yet he still refused. That is obstruction of a congressional investigation. The Committee will act accordingly." PASSED BY REPUBLICANS ON BEHALF OF THE MILLIONS OF AMERICANS AND THEIR FAMILIES STILL AFFECTED YEARS AFTER THE COVID PANDEMIC, THE RESOLUTION TO HOLD ANTHONY FAUCI IN CONTEMPT OF CONGRESS HAS PASSED OUT OF THE SENATE HOMELAND SECURITY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE BY A VOTE… https://t.co/9wgO1KeMd2 — Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) August 6, 2026 Meanwhile, the WSJ reported last night that the panel obtained a copy of Fauci's cell phone. A Senate panel investigating Dr. Anthony Fauci has obtained a copy of the doctor’s iPhone, potentially securing even more records related to the doctor’s actions during the Covid-19 pandemic. The copy of the phone was transferred by the Department of Health and Human Services to the Senate Homeland Security Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, which is chaired by Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wis.). This revelation comes just days after copies of Fauci’s journals were publicly released following their transfer from HHS to Congress. Two Republican senators, Johnson and Rand Paul of Kentucky, have increased pressure on Fauci in recent days to answer questions related to pandemic health measures and the origins of Covid-19. The subpoena, issued in July, directed Fauci to testify on the committee's investigation into "risky life sciences research and the origins of the COVID-19 virus," according to the Epoch Times. The July 29 hearing itself was a prolonged exercise in refusal. Fauci opened by accusing Paul of an "unhinged obsession" with him and claiming the sole purpose of the session was to trap him into saying something that would land him "behind bars." From that point forward he answered nothing of consequence. Senators pressed him on gain-of-function research funding, the lab-leak evidence he had privately acknowledged while publicly promoting a natural-origin narrative, lockdown policies, school closures, personal financial awards solicited with federal employees on taxpayer time, and contradictions between his public statements and private diary entries. He declined them all. Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 09:45

Situational Awareness Returns With $400M Investment After Nearly Collapsing Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com, Situational Awareness, the hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, reportedly invested $400 million in a privately held company days after it nearly collapsed under margin calls. The fund invested $100 million in the same unnamed company in July, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.  The latest investment was completed on Tuesday. Cointelegraph has approached Situational Awareness for comment. Assets at Situational Awareness fell about 78% in July, as an AI-stock sell-off triggered margin calls from Wall Street lenders. The fund sought fresh capital and considered selling stakes in private companies, according to the Financial Times. “We took the steps that were necessary to fight another day,” Aschenbrenner told investors in a letter on Friday. “But our fund must always be structured such that we can take a loss and fight another day. I will make it my mission to ensure that we learn the necessary lessons from this experience.” The fund subsequently sold most of its public equity portfolio to Ken Griffin’s Citadel, allowing it to repay lenders and retain its private holdings. *SITUATIONAL AWARENESS MAKES INVESTING RETURN WITH $400M BET this time with 8x TRS leverage pic.twitter.com/kXY7MQa0Px — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 6, 2026 Situational Awareness had invested heavily in power and data centers supporting AI, including Bitcoin miners expanding into AI computing. A May 18 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission covering holdings as of March 31 showed about $1.11 billion in positions across seven Bitcoin mining stocks, including IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark. Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:50

Celsius Shares Crash As Revenue Misses Estimates Celsius Holdings, the Florida-based beverage company with a portfolio of some of America's top-performing energy drinks, reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter results, as revenue, adjusted earnings, and profitability missed Wall Street estimates. Second-quarter adjusted earnings fell to 36 cents per share from 47 cents a year earlier, below the 41-cent Bloomberg Consensus estimate. Revenue increased 11% to $817.9 million but missed the $872.6 million estimate, with North American sales of $790.7 million also falling short. Profitability deteriorated despite sales growth. Gross margin narrowed to 48.1% from 51.5% as promotional activity, channel mix, and aluminum inflation weighed on results. Net income fell 45% to $55.3 million, while adjusted earnings declined to 36 cents per share from 47 cents. Adjusted EBITDA dropped 12% to $184.2 million. 2Q Earnings Snapshot: Adjusted EPS 36c vs. 47c y/y, estimate 41c (Bloomberg Consensus) EPS 14c vs. 33c y/y, estimate 40c Revenue $817.9 million, +11% y/y, estimate $872.6 million North America revenue $790.7 million, +11% y/y, estimate $847.3 million International revenue $27.2 million, +9.7% y/y Gross margin 48.1% vs. 51.5% y/y, estimate 48.6% Adjusted Ebitda $184.2 million, -12% y/y, estimate $198.4 million Celsius shares plunged 16% in premarket trading.  "During the second quarter of 2026, we made meaningful progress in advancing Celsius Holdings as a scaled portfolio of leading brands. We delivered a double-digit increase in second-quarter revenue, completed the Rockstar integration, and maintained gross margin near first-quarter levels despite a challenging commodity environment," CEO John Fieldly wrote in a press release. Celsius Holdings' portfolio, which includes CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and the U.S. and Canadian Rockstar Energy business, accounts for about 20% of U.S. ready-to-drink energy sales. PepsiCo serves as the company's primary distribution partner. Notably, the national average price for regular 87-octane gasoline remained mostly above $4 per gallon in the quarter, a key threshold at which consumer behavior begins to shift through trade-downs and reduced discretionary purchases. Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog previously flagged a slowdown in energy-drink demand beginning in mid-May. Read the full note here. Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:35

Futures Flat As Tech Slides After Memory Stocks, Korea Tumble US futures are mixed with S&P futures modestly higher offset by a slide in tech: as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% while Nasdaq futures drop 0.5%, hit by a plunge in Sandisk (down 9% in pre-market), and rival Western Digital which tumbled 15%, after both companies reported earnings. AppLovin also slumped 16% after missing revenue estimates while DataDog tumbled as much as 18% after guidance wasn't strong enough, and pushed Nasdaq to session lows. Mag 7 stocks are mixed (AAPL +1.0% and GOOGL +0.7% are among the outperformers). Asian stocks declined, led by losses in heavyweight chipmakers following earnings reports from US peers that renewed concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. European shares were more resilient and advanced for a 4th day on hopes of an Iran deal (that was supposed to happen two days ago) as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with WPP Plc leading gains in the media sector. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher. Commodity prices were mostly higher: base metals are all higher this morning; gold +0.6%, while silver -0.4%. Overnight, not many incremental updates on US/Iran, with investors waiting for the details of the Iran/Oman deal around the Strait of Hormuz. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher, offseting a plunge in chip/memory names (Apple +1.1%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.5%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.6%, Tesla unchanged, Microsoft -0.6%) Albemarle (ALB) gains 3% after the chemicals company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate on strong lithium prices. AppLovin (APP) drops 19% after the mobile-app marketing company reported revenue for the second quarter that was slightly below the average analyst estimate. The company’s forecast for adjusted Ebitda and adjusted Ebitda margin also came in below consensus expectations. Celsius (CELH) drops 17% after the energy drink maker’s adjusted EPS and revenue fell well short of Street expectations. Constellation Energy (CEG) rises 4% after the nuclear power plant operator boosted its adjusted operating earnings per share forecast for the full year. Datadog (DDOG) slumps 17% after the software company posted an adjusted gross margin for the second quarter that trailed the average analyst estimate. Duolingo (DUOL) falls 8% after the language-learning software company gave a revenue and bookings forecast for the third quarter that fell short of expectations. Figma (FIG) falls 15% after the creative software platform gave revenue guidance for the third quarter that disappointed Wall Street. The firm also posted a second-quarter operating margin that dropped from the first quarter. Fiserv (FISV) falls 9% after the fintech slashed its full-year profit outlook and posted quarterly earnings that fell short of analyst estimates as revenue slumped. Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) declines 14% after the aerospace and defense company reduced its outlook for the full year to reflect supply chain issues. HubSpot (HUBS) is down 23% after the maker of customer-relationship management software forecast revenue for the current quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate. Sandisk (SNDK) is down 9% after the computer hardware company’s revenue forecast for the first quarter missed the average analyst estimate. Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) falls 3% after the amusement-park operator reported net revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. SoundHound AI (SOUN) jumps 26% after the software company reported better-than-expected second-quarter revenue. Sunrun (RUN) drops 12% after the home solar company cut its guidance for full-year cash generation, citing factors including reduced volumes from affiliate channels. Warby Parker (WRBY) falls 4% after the eyeglass company’s second quarter sales trailed the consensus estimate. Western Digital (WDC) falls 16% after the computer hardware and storage company forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate at the midpoint. Analysts note the company’s performance lags that of peer Seagate. Zillow Group Inc. (Z) is down 11% after the online real estate platform provided revenue forecast for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. In other AI news, DeepSeek plans to implement a significant price increase across its AI services, an unusual shift from the disruptive Chinese player. OpenAI said the AI models behind the Hugging Face hack began working together to break out of their testing environment as early as May. And Meta Platforms said one of its AI models accessed the internet and hacked into an outside service’s systems during cybersecurity testing. In other corporate news, CME and FanDuel are scaling back a joint effort to take on prediction market startups. MercadoLibre shares are sliding in premarket trading as worries about the e-commerce giant’s spending plans are outweighing an estimate-beating quarter. After big gains to start the week, stocks may be stuck in a holding pattern until Friday’s payrolls, while recent economic policy decisions are also causing some nervousness about US assets. AI concerns related to elevated capex, ROI and circular financing had dissipated in recent trading sessions, but seem to be back in focus; this is now a weekly thing with Risk On/Risk Off becoming AI Math on/AI Math off. SoftBank results showed a big investment gain on its Intel shares but muted gains in the value of its OpenAI investment and declines inside the Vision Fund portfolio. Microsoft is also making headlines, with disclosures showing it generates most of its AI revenue from OpenAI. Sandisk and Western Digital both gave tepid revenue forecasts for next quarter, renewing concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. The pair have been big contributors to S&P 500 gains this year, as we noted yesterday; both are sharply lower this morning, and this is a reminder how Wall Street analysts are zero signal and all noise: "Sandisk Corp PT Cut to $1,750 from $3,000 at Jefferies." The semiconductor sector was also the focus in Asia as Korea’s Kospi Index fell 4.8% with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. leading losses. “Investors are increasingly asking what incremental catalysts are needed to remain in the Asia memory trade,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. SpaceX, meanwhile, may be in for another volatile day as $101 billion worth of stock becomes available for trading. It’s the first lock-up expiry of a staggered nine-stage structure, designed in an effort to dilute the impact of the vast amount of shares locked up. SPCX shares edged higher in premarket trading after the company’s first quarterly earnings report since its listing triggered a 14% slide. The pause in the tech-led rally comes as investors reassess valuations after AI-related shares rebounded from last month’s selloff. Traders are also focused on Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data, which is expected to show a strengthening jobs market, as they look for clues to the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Meanwhile, Brent crude held at around $80 per barrel after Iran said it reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of energy flows resuming through the critical waterway. But a lasting US-Iran deal that would help ease inflation and upward pressure on Treasury yields remains elusive, with President Donald Trump saying on Wednesday he would “see what happens” in ongoing negotiations. Tied to that perhaps, gold is extending its rise after the biggest jump in six months to touch $4,300/oz. Comex copper futures climbed to a record, tracking the push to reopen Hormuz, as gold had. In macro data, tomorrow’s payrolls report “feels binary,” writes Bloomberg Macro Strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning. Another weak print boosts the case for doves, but a strong figure indicates June was an anomaly and brings expectations for the next hike forward. “Until a more positive development in the Middle East is confirmed, and ahead of tomorrow’s important US employment data, markets have taken a wait-and-see stance,” said Karl Steiner, head of analysis at SEB. “This is reflected in the stock market development, a fairly unchanged oil price and small movements in the US 10-year Treasury yield.” In politics, President Trump is preparing tariffs to slap minimum prices on imported polysilicon in a bid to boost domestic production of both the material and the chips and solar panels that it is used to make. The plans may materialize as soon as Thursday with levies being pitched at around 15%. In hedge fund news, a spate of well-known funds reported steep losses in July as AI shares tumbled. TMT hedge funds lost an unprecedented 10% in July as they were forced to deleverage and liquidate positions as the AI trade lost momentum, according to JPMorgan strategists, citing preliminary data from analytics firm PivotalPath. One of the hardest hit, Situational Awareness, has already made its return to investing with a $400 million bet on a privately-held firm. Elsewhere in hedge funds, a slew of major hedge funds have had their information systems targeted by hackers in recent days. Point72 informed investors about the attack on Wednesday, while there were attempts to infiltrate Millennium Management, Two Sigma and Citadel too. Fed’s Daly and Cook both spoke after the bell on Wednesday. Mary Daly said she supported the central bank’s decision to keep rates on hold, but warned of the possibility that high inflation is a broader problem that could require more aggressive action. Lisa Cook repeated a message that she is ready to raise rates if inflation doesn’t slow. European shares advanced for a fourth straight day as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with WPP Plc leading gains in the media sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was 0.5% higher as of 11 a.m. in London. Spain’s Ibex 35, Italy’s FTSE MIB and France’s CAC 40 were also trading at new peaks. Germany’s DAX edged higher after factory orders rose by more than analysts forecast in June, another sign that a long-awaited recovery in Europe’s biggest economy may finally be taking hold. Media shares were the best performers as WPP soared the most since its 1995 debut after the advertising agency reported its turnaround efforts are gaining momentum. Among more than 30 companies reporting earnings today, Deutsche Telekom AG climbed 5.9% after Europe’s biggest phone carrier raised its share buyback program by as much as €3 billion ($3.5 billion). Banco BPM SpA gained 5.3% as it reported net income for the second quarter that surpassed estimates. Its Chief Executive Officer Giuseppe Castagna said the Italian lender would consider a tie-up with Credit Agricole SA. Here are the biggest movers Thursday: WPP shares soar as much as 30%, marking their biggest intraday advance on record, after the advertising agency reported a smaller-than-expected decline in organic sales in 2Q Deutsche Telekom shares rose as much as 5.9% after the German carrier boosted its share buyback program by up to €3 billion ($3.5 billion), a move analysts say reduces the risks of the firm using excess cash to buy out minority shareholders in T-Mobile US Hikma Pharmaceuticals shares jump as much as 11%, the most since September 2022, after the drugmaker reported better-than-expected sales and earnings for the first half-year SBM Offshore shares rally as much as 9.3%, the biggest jump since April 2025, after the service provider to the offshore oil and gas industry topped expectations in the first half Glanbia shares jump as much as 9.3%, their biggest jump in over three months, after the nutrition company delivered earnings ahead of expectations in the first half and improved its guidance for the full year Serco shares rise as much as 6.3%, the most since December, after the British outsourcing services provider increased its share buyback program by £75 million Renk shares rise as much as 7% after the German gearbox maker reported order intake for the first half-year that beat the average analyst estimate TP ICAP shares fall as much as 7.1% after an earnings beat and an extended buyback proved unable to sustain the stock’s strong performance this year Scout24 shares slide as much as 9%, the most since December 2021, as a lack of momentum in customer subscriptions overshadowed an in-line second quarter result at the online real estate platform Siemens shares fall as much as 6.4% as analysts see results in the Digital Industries business weighing on sentiment amid high expectations for the company’s earnings overall Adecco shares fall as much as 7.8% following second-quarter results, as the human resources provider and temporary staffing firm is likely to see continued gross margin pressure as well as weak industry sentiment Tritax Big Box shares fall as much as 5.2%, the biggest intraday drop since March, after the UK REIT raised £350 million through an equity placing that analysts said is dilutive in the near-term Aurubis shares fall as much as 8.4%, the most in a year, after the copper smelter announced a one-year delay to a new American smelting complex Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, led by losses in heavyweight chipmakers following earnings reports from US peers that renewed concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%, with SK Hynix, Samsung, TSMC and Kioxia among the biggest drags. South Korea’s Kospi slumped 4.6% with notable losses also in Hong Kong and Japan’s Nikkei. Memory and storage stocks mostly dropped after results from Sandisk and Western Digital that weren’t strong enough to impress investors. Last month’s brutal losses in chip stocks had pared somewhat over the past week, but the latest disappointment once again spurred dumping of tech versus buying of more defensive consumer and health shares. Here Are the Most Notable Movers Chip giant SK Hynix Inc. suffered its second short-lived share plunge in about a week, raising fresh questions about trading volatility on South Korea’s alternative stock exchange. AMP shares climbed to their highest level since 2019 after the wealth manager reported a surge in first-half net income, and announced additional share buyback. Nitto Boseki shares plunged as much as 19%, the most since March 9, after the glass product maker’s quarterly earnings presentation fell short of investors’ lofty expectations. Honda shares gained as much as 2.3% in Tokyo trading Thursday after the carmaker raised its full-year profit target by around 30%, helped by tailwinds from the weak yen. First-quarter profit also beat market estimates. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady while US 10-year yields were 1bp higher at 4.62%. The dollar traded in a narrow range versus most major peers with traders waiting to see how US payroll data on Friday may impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. “USD may get a knee-jerk bounce if the data surprises,” said Philip Wee, senior currency strategist at DBS Bank. Challenger jobs and initial jobless claims data due later on Thursday may provide insight into the US labor market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% with the move higher running out of steam as USD/JPY remains stuck below 158. Key markets: USD/JPY little changed at 157.77 (range 157.56 - 157.85) EUR/USD little changed at 1.1545 (range 1.1542 - 1.156) GBP/USD little changed at 1.3461 (range 1.3455 - 1.3473) “Improved market sentiment in the Gulf has lent the dollar some weakness, but the greenback is still counting on very stable Fed rate expectations,” ING Bank NV strategists including Francesco Pesole wrote in a note. “The proximity to tomorrow’s US payrolls could favor a wait-and-see approach and limit FX moves today.” In rates, treasuries are a touch lower. Yields are flat to up 2bps across the curve. Treasuries hold small losses as oil resumes rising, with an Iran-Oman agreement to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz under review.  Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp with curve spreads little changed; 10-year is around 4.65%, cheaper by 3bps with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming slightly. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Nine borrowers priced a combined $18 billion Wednesday, lifting weekly volume to more than $43 billion. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.6 times covered. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims with July employment data ahead Friday. Global bond and currency investors are debating if it’s time to dust off last year’s “Sell America” trade Bloomberg reports, after a flurry of economic-policy decisions out of Washington over the past two weeks. In commodities, energy prices have been choppy with Brent struggling to hold above the $80/bbl handle. In precious metals gold is extending its rise after the biggest jump in six months to touch $4,300/oz. Spot gold is up 0.7%, while silver loses 0.2%. Comex copper futures climbed to a record, tracking the push to reopen Hormuz, as gold had. Bitcoin is down 0.1%.  Today's US economic data calendar includes 2Q preliminary productivity and unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and June wholesale inventories (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 5:30pm. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News President Trump has spoken repeatedly with Kevin Warsh since he became chairman of the Federal Reserve, according to people familiar with the matter, maintaining a line of communication between a president and a central bank chief that departs from recent precedent. WSJ Kevin Warsh is set to stick to his stripped-back communications style even after the Federal Reserve chair’s decision to offer scant details of his strategy on interest rates fuelled a powerful sell-off in Treasury bonds: FT AI data centers are putting unexpected strain on power infrastructure, with rapid demand swings causing batteries, generators and cooling systems to wear out faster than expected. BBG OpenAI said the AI models behind the Hugging Face hack secretly communicated for months before escaping their testing environment. Separately, Meta disclosed one of its AI models hacked into another service’s system during safety testing. BBG DeepSeek plans to implement a significant price increase across its AI services, an unusual shift from the disruptive Chinese player that has put pressure on US and domestic rivals. DeepSeek's decision to raise prices could be an inflection point in China's AI market, where other top players have followed the company's playbook in offering low-cost and open-source services. BBG China launched a formal security review of products sold in the country by US technology firm Palo Alto Networks Inc.(PANW), ramping up pressure on the company months after accusing it of harboring links to intelligence services. BBG Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix face growing calls from investors wanting a greater share of excess cash via dividends or buybacks, after the pair provided scant detail on capital returns when reporting AI-driven record profit. RTRS Softbank disclosed a smaller-than-expected decline in net income, lifted by a boost from its stake in Intel. BBG Trump tells donors, ‘We need to elect JD,’ as vice president weighs his future. WaPo Mary Daly said she supported last week’s decision to hold rates but warned that high inflation may be a broader problem requiring more aggressive action. Lisa Cook repeated that she’s ready to hike if inflation doesn’t slow. BBG A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mostly lower following a similar performance stateside, where the Dow extended on its record levels, but the Nasdaq underperformed amid weakness in communication stocks, while the tech sector dragged overnight and tariff tensions resurfaced. ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high with mining, materials and resources leading the advances, while trade data also showed a surprise surplus and a rebound in exports. Nikkei 225 retreated amid chip-related weakness and with Kioxia among the worst hit. KOSPI underperformed amid tech selling and as recent volatility continued to dent investor sentiment, with SK Hynix shares down about 8%, and had suffered another pre-market flash crash in which its shares dropped by the daily limit of 30% on the Nextrade bourse before ending the pre-market session down 2%. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with insurers pressured after Chinese tax authorities began levying personal income tax on returns of offshore insurance policies, while trade frictions continued to resurface after MOFCOM announced it would strengthen drone export controls to the US and will impose countermeasures on six US entities, as well as take countermeasures against US compliance-testing firms Top Asian News Japanese PM Takaichi said a return to 8% food tax after two years isn't a hike, and a return to 8% food sales tax that will be needed for market trust, adding the benefit of a new tax credit system will exceed the tax cut. Japan and US companies, potentially joined by the UAE and other investors, plan to invest about JPY 2tln in Japan's largest AI data centre project, according to Nikkei. PBoC said it plans to expand yuan offshore market and explore expanding the central bank’s macroprudential and financial stability roles. PBoC is also exploring to boost cross-border yuan use. European bourses are broadly higher. The FTSE MIB is outperforming, while the AEX and DAX 40 lag. Chip names are weighing on the AEX, and Siemens' earnings (disappointing FY sales guidance raise) are weighing on the DAX 40. Outside of earnings, not much in terms of a clear driver as markets await an announcement regarding the reopening of Hormuz. Sectors have a positive bias. Media leads, supported by strong WPP (+22.5%) earnings (Q2 operating profit beat estimates). Telecoms and Consumer Products & Services round out the sector outperformers. Basic Resources is the sector laggard, paring back some of Wednesday's gains, followed by Real Estate and Tech. Top European News Swedish CPIF YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.3%); ex-energy 0.6% (prev. 0.4%). Swedish CPIF MoM Prel (Jul) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.3%); ex-energy 0.4%. Swedish Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jul) Y/Y 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.7%). Swedish Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jul) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.4%). EU Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%). EU Retail Sales YoY (Jun) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.6%). German Factory Orders MoM (Jun) M/M 3.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.9%). Spanish Industrial Production YoY (Jun) Y/Y 1.1% (Prev. 3.4%); M/M -0.7% vs Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.2%). FX G10s mostly weaker against the Buck; SEK outperforms after hotter than expected inflation, Antipodeans lag amid the general risk tone. USD lacks direction, remaining just below 100.00 as it has done since the beginning of the week. Newsflow is light and markets still anticipate confirmation of an Iran-Oman agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the potential US-Iran Hormuz agreement; updates which, on the face of it, could pressure the Buck, though are largely expected by markets with Brent down double digits on the week. The likely next catalyst, aside from any potential re-escalation, will be the labour market data ahead of NFP on Friday. To remind, a soft ADP failed to spur a USD reaction. Fed Hawk Musalem is slated to speak and likely to stick alongside the hawkish remarks seen from Kashkari, Cook and Daly on Wednesday. EUR flat against the Buck with bloc-specific catalysts light ahead of US NFP on Friday, which will likely dictate price action. For now, EUR will likely sit within its recent 1.1540-1.1550 range after failing to breach 1.1560 overnight with a lack of newsflow. Swedish inflation cooled, albeit at a slower rate than expected. The hotter-than-expected print (vs. consensus and Riksbank fcst.) was sufficient to spark ~0.2% bid in the SEK against both the EUR and the USD, though not against NOK. EUR/SEK fell from just below 10.96 to a 10.93 base. While firmer than Riksbank had forecast, it likely endorses rather than changes the current path for rates, with markets fully assigning a 25bps hike by year-end. Both ING and Nordea maintain their view for year end, for unch. and one hike respectively. Fixed Income Fixed benchmarks are in the red after starting the morning on the front foot amid initial energy pressure. In a similar playbook to Wednesday morning, the pickup in energy in the last few hours has placed modest pressure on fixed, which now finds itself lower across the board. For USTs, the losses are only a few ticks in magnitude, at a 108-26+ base. Ahead, we have a packed docket of data, before Friday’s Payrolls, and Fed speak. The latter point is increasingly interesting given the hawkish tone from some officials at, and since, the dissent seen in July. Today, Musalem (2028), who typically resides on the hawkish side of things, partakes in a moderated event. Bunds peaked at 125.36 overnight, firmer by 13 ticks. Since, as above, it has moved into the red and currently posts downside of 13 ticks at a 125.12 trough. The German-specific docket is light, but EGBs generally have to digest a decent amount of supply from France and Spain, which is concentrated around the 2036 area and will potentially be adding to the bearish bias across EGBs into the taps. Both auctions went well, with strong demand for the Spanish tap, while the 10yr French auctions topped the 3x b/c mark. Gilts directionally in-fitting, with losses of 28 ticks and as is typically the case they underperform during the energy-led move at this point. Specifics for the UK light, and may well continue to be for the near-term, as Parliament remains in recess until September 1st and the extended hold narrative for the BoE remains. France sells EUR 12.495bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 1.25% 2036, 3.70% 2036, 3.80% 2037 & 0.50% 2044 OAT. Spain sells EUR 5.315bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.60% 2031, 3.00% 2033, 3.40% 2036 Bono & EUR 0.728bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L Bono. Japan sells JPY 455.8bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.86x (prev. 4.55x), average yield 3.952% (prev. 3.993%), Tail in price 0.21 (prev. 0.04). Commodities Crude prices swing between gains and losses with initial upside amid a lack of Iran deal newsflow whilst some supply-side headlines came into focus alongside overnight shipping strikes. Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukraine struck Bashneft-Novoil (~150k BPD) and Slavneft-Yanos (300k BPD) refineries (the latter being one of Russia’s largest oil-processing facilities), two Russian patrol boats and shadow fleet vessels in long-range attacks aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues, whilst large smoke plumes and at least four apparent fires were seen at the Yaroslavl refinery. Thereafter, renewed downside was seen on source reports around the Iran-Oman Hormuz framework agreement, although losses are limited until confirmation from Iran. WTI Sep’26 trades in a USD 74.57-76.04/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 74.24-76.70/bbl), while Brent Oct'26 trades in a USD 78.92-80.35/bbl (vs yesterday’s 78.11-80.95/bbl). Dutch TTF is similarly choppy but currently up around 3% near EUR 54/MWh. Metals are mostly firmer as the energy complex trades choppy in a narrow range, while DXY yesterday fell back under its 100 DMA (99.729) for the second time this week. Furthermore, growing expectations of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have eased energy-driven inflation fears. Spot gold adds to yesterday’s gains and trades around the middle of a USD 4,245-4,304/oz range. 3M LME copper sits towards the top of a USD 14,053.00- 14,359.00/t. Saudi Arabia sets September Arab Light crude OSP for Asia at USD 2/bbl discount to Oman/Dubai average; To the US at ASCI +3.60/bbl; To NW Europe at ICE Brent settlement -2.15/bbl. China's CMRG has reportedly told some steel mills to stop talks with Rio Tinto (RIO LN) from shipments from September, according to sources. DRC reportedly bans exports of Copper and Cobalt concentrate, according to sources citing an official order. Central Banks Fed's Cook (voter) said she supported holding rates steady at the last FOMC meeting while waiting for more data. She said it may yet turn out that the Fed does not need to raise rates but is ready to raise rates if the disinflation trend does not return. Added that there are reasons to believe inflation levels can cool but consumer mood tied to a number of factors including high inflation has soured. Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said tariffs, energy and AI shocks caused an uptick in inflation, but noted some evidence that impacts of tariffs are beginning to fade on inflation. If the Middle East war ends, it should help lower inflation. Fed is facing different types of risks when it comes to setting rate policy, while she is completely supportive of holding rates steady in July and noted Fed still needs to gather data to set future policy move. Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic Rate by 25bps to 14.00%, as expected, reaffirming serenity and cautiousness in conducting monetary policy. Geopolitics: Iran US President Trump said he'd rather make a deal with Iran and reiterated the US was set for the biggest attack since World War II against Iran, but they called and we're talking, while he added they respect us. US VP Vance said negotiations with Iran will take some time and that talks with Iran were 'messy', but will land in a 'good' place for the US. Iran and Oman have agreed on the broad framework for Strait of Hormuz reopening talks, Al Arabiya sources report. An announcement could come in days but the agreement still needs the approval of Iran's National Security Council. The proposed agreement regarding Hormuz extends for 60 days and aims to resume navigation. Ships entering the Strait of Hormuz will use the shipping lane closest to Iran while ships departing from Hormuz will use the maritime passage closest to Oman. The proposed agreement regarding Hormuz does not include imposing passage fees or services on ships and after the approval of the Hormuz agreement, the parties will return to the memorandum of understanding and activate. Indirect contacts between the US and Iran have entered the final stage, according to Al Arabiya sources. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to Pakistan is expected by the end of the week or early next week, according to Al Arabiya sources. Pakistani Foreign Ministry said Oman played a key role in Strait of Hormuz talks as diplomatic efforts continue toward a comprehensive and sustainable solution, Al Hadath reported, and that efforts to resolve the Hormuz issue continue. Yemeni military source said Red Sea operations target Saudi ships and oil tankers and "reduce the options for manoeuvring for the Saudi regime". The source also dismissed Saudi claims over the Indian cargo ship sinking, Al-Akhbar reported. UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 9 nautical miles southeast of Kumzar, Oman, with the master of a tanker reporting hearing two explosions whilst transiting the Strait of Hormuz, although crew and vessel are safe. Israeli forces strike Burj el-Shamali in southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen. Geopolitics: Ukraine Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine struck Bashneft-Novoil (~150k BPD) and Slavneft-Yanos (300k BPD) refineries, two Russian patrol boats and shadow fleet vessels in long-range attacks aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues. Air raid alerts issued in Kyiv and multiple regions, according to Ukrainian media. Geopolitics: Other  Japan's MoD said there is no longer any impact on the surrounding areas of Japan, following the North Korean missile launch. US event calendar 8:30 am: Aug 1 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205k, prior 197k 8:30 am: Jul 25 Continuing Claims, est. 1789k, prior 1782k 10:00 am: Jun F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap After an initially strong run, the week’s equity rally began to run out of steam by the close yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.17%) finishing just shy of the previous day’s record high, whilst the Stoxx 600 (+0.04%) just about edged up to another all-time high. That came despite a slew of strong corporate earnings and Iran saying that it has reached agreement with Oman on a proposed route through the Strait of Hormuz. While the timing of any Hormuz re-opening is still uncertain, oil prices are slightly down this morning, while Treasury yields are also dipping slightly after being little changed yesterday amid a batch of mostly solid US data. Meanwhile, a more cautious tech mood has solidified in Asia hours overnight with the KOSPI (-4.18%) and Hang Seng (-1.75%) retreating. NASDAQ futures (-0.13%) are also down this morning even as those on the S&P 500 (+0.16%) are edging higher. Starting with the Hormuz story, yesterday brought another step forward after Iran said an agreement with Oman had been reached on a proposed shipping route through the Strait and that a joint statement was now in the final drafting stage. However, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister also said that this would represent a “temporary route” for the next 2-4 months and would “not mean the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”. Iranian state media also reported that reopening Hormuz would be contingent “on a change in US behaviour”, perhaps referring to Tehran’s demands that the US lifts its naval blockade. Markets have seen plenty of false dawns throughout this conflict, and while the detail is becoming more concrete, attention is now shifting from whether an agreement can be reached to what the final arrangements will look like, including unresolved questions around whether Iran will eventually be permitted to levy tolls on vessels using the Strait. Meanwhile, President Trump sounded somewhat ambivalent on deal prospects last night, saying he will “see what happens” in ongoing negotiations with Iran, after having suggested on Tuesday that a deal could be announced within 48 hours. Markets nevertheless continue to lean towards a positive outcome, although much of the good news now appears priced in. Brent crude edged up +0.11% to $79.45/bbl, whilst WTI fell by -0.73% to $75.22/bbl. European natural gas futures dropped -6.29%, extending one of their sharpest declines of the year and leaving them down -13.3% over the past week. Brent crude is -0.38% this morning. With oil moving mostly sideways, the 2yr Treasury yield declined by -1.0bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr was unchanged at 4.61%. Those muted moves came as the Treasury Department announced quarterly refunding of $125bn, in line with expectations, whilst maintaining guidance that auction sizes would be unchanged for at least the next several quarters. The slight decline in front-end yields also came as pricing of a September Fed rate cut eased from 58% to 54%, the lowest this has been since the more hawkish signal sent back at Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on June 12. In terms of the latest Fedspeak, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who dissented in favour of a hike at the July meeting, said that “now is the time to start slowly” raising rates. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Cook sounded more conditional on the potential need for hikes, saying that “If I do not see signs of continued disinflation soon, I am prepared to act”. The modest pull back in Fed hike pricing came alongside a mostly resilient set of US economic releases. We did see a bit of softening in the labour market signal, with the ADP report showing employment growth of 44k in July (vs 65k expected) ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report. Whilst slightly softer, it remains consistent with a labour market that is broadly stable. And the latest ISM services survey showed the employment component fell to 47.4 in July (vs 51.2 expected).  However, while this weighed on the headline ISM services reading (54.1 vs 54.5 expected), the other details of the release were stronger and more inflationary. New orders increased to 57.2 (vs 55.9 expected) and prices paid jumped to 70.3 (vs 65.0 expected). Taking a broader view, the US very much remained an outperformer in this week’s PMI and ISM releases. Amongst major economies, only Switzerland is currently registering both stronger services activity and stronger services price pressures. It is therefore difficult to argue that pressure on the Fed to tighten policy disappears before September. The comments from ISM respondents reinforced that message. Healthcare firms reported stronger-than-expected patient volumes, revenues and hiring conditions. Banking respondents continued to point to healthy commercial demand. Wholesale trade described activity as “more robust than expected” despite broader headwinds. At the same time, concerns around rising input costs remained widespread, particularly around fuel, labour, freight and utility equipment. Taken together, it remains a story of resilient activity and lingering inflation pressures. Across the Atlantic, although PMI levels are lower, much of Europe now finds itself broadly back where it was before the Iran shock with the final July composite PMI revised marginally higher (52.0 vs 51.9 expected) despite the pickup in energy prices in late July. This PMI level is consistent with GDP growth of around +0.25% q/q if sustained through the quarter. Overall, the survey data point to a strengthening in underlying growth momentum and suggest the Euro Area economy has remained resilient despite the recent energy shock. Amid the more mixed data and oil backdrop, equities struggled to maintain the strong momentum that had brought them to new record highs. The S&P 500 eased back by -0.17%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped -0.83% following its recent outperformance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-1.40%) also gave back some recent gains, though it is still up +6.17% so far this week. Sentiment was not helped by AMD (-7.04%), whose guidance failed to meet some of the market’s more optimistic expectations, whilst SpaceX (-13.61%) also slid following its results the previous evening. That said, the broader AI story remains firmly intact. Nvidia (+3.43%) continued to benefit from positive commentary around its next-generation Rubin architecture and after SpaceX said during its earnings call on Tuesday night that it would exclusively use Nvidia AI chips. Elsewhere, Eli Lilly (+4.86%) rose after reporting results ahead of expectations, supported by continued strength in demand for its GLP-1 portfolio. One of the more interesting AI stories yesterday came from the Wall Street Journal, which reported that Jeff Dean, Google’s chief scientist and one of the most influential engineers in the company’s history, is leaving after 27 years to launch a new AI-focused research company. Dean was Google’s 30th employee, helped build Google Brain, led development of its TPU chips and has sat at the centre of the company’s AI strategy for much of the last decade. He is being joined by several other prominent Google researchers, including key contributors to AlphaFold and advanced mathematical reasoning systems. Alphabet will remain an investor and provide computing capacity to the venture, but the move nevertheless highlights how intense competition for elite AI talent has become. It also points to what could be the next frontier for AI. Rather than building better chatbots or consumer applications, the new company aims to automate the scientific discovery process itself across machine learning research, hardware design, drug discovery and clean energy. For markets, it is another reminder that the AI investment cycle is evolving rapidly beyond software and increasingly into scientific research, engineering and real-world innovation. Alphabet shares fell -4.03% following the news. Otherwise, Asian equity markets struggled overnight amidst a more cautious tech mood, not helped by underwhelming guidance from US chipmakers Sandisk and Western Digital Corp after the US close, with their shares sliding by around -8% and -12% respectively in extended trading. The Kospi (-4.18%) is leading the decline, dragged by chipmaker heavyweights SK Hynix (-6.68%) and Samsung Electronics (-4.55%). The Nikkei 225 (-1.06%), Hang Seng (-1.75%) and CSI 300 (-0.42%) are also down this morning. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.37%) remains the outperformer, breaking another record high as I type. In currency markets, the yen (-0.03%) is also little changed at 157.71 against the USD this morning. In Europe, the performance was mixed yesterday. The Stoxx 600 (+0.04%) and CAC 40 (+0.03%) both edged to fresh all-time highs, whilst the DAX (-0.29%) and FTSE MIB (-0.18%) slipped modestly lower. European sovereign markets saw yields mostly drift higher. The 10yr bund yield edged up +0.4bps, while 10yr OATs (+1.7bp) and BTPs (+1.8bp) saw slightly larger increases. ECB rate hike expectations for September rose to 84% from 79% the previous day amid the resilient data. Finally, with Fed rate cuts being dialled back, gold rose +4.19%, its largest daily gain since February. Gold prices are another +0.26% higher at $4,258/oz overnight, though they remain about -20% below the levels reached at the start of the Iran war in early March. The dollar (-0.18%) extended its decline for a third straight day. To the day ahead now, economic data releases include US Q2 nonfarm productivity, unit labour costs, June wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK July construction PMI, Germany June factory orders, France Q2 wages, Italy June industrial production, Eurozone June retail sales, Canada July Services PMI and Sweden July CPI. We will also receive the ECB’s latest Economic Bulletin. Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 08:10

"In Uncharted Waters": The SpaceX Lockup Expiration Begins SpaceX shares are hovering near record lows after the company's first earnings report as a publicly traded company beat expectations. However, as we noted Tuesday, Thursday's first lockup expiration is likely the more significant near-term catalyst than earnings. The first insider share lockup expires today and more than doubles the float from about 639 million to 1.55 billion. That means about 911.5 million shares of new supply are inbound for the market. HSBC analysts Nicolas Cote-Colisson and Charlie Rothbarth recently mapped out the staggered lockup-expiration schedule: SpaceX's IPO prospectus indicated that 555,555,555 shares would be issued to constitute the free float. We understand that the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase additional shares of Class A common stock in full, so the free float would have extended to 638,888,888 shares. We identify 4,678m locked up shares and another 8,160m shares subject to an extended lockup. Based on the information provided by the SpaceX prospectus dated 12 June 2026, we calculate that 912m shares could be available for sale in the public market from 6 August 2026, compared with 640m shares constituting the free float at present. The free float would increase from 4.9% at present to 11.8%. Another release event could occur on the same day depending on SpaceX shares trading above USD175.5 for at least five of 10 consecutive trading days ending on 4 August 2026 (i.e. between 22 July and 4 August 2026). The table below provides further event/date triggers for subsequent share releases. Those restricted shares are currently owned by funds and individuals that have participated in the private rounds of financing and may be inclined to keep their shares. But we think investors should be aware of this. Lockup expiration roadmap: via HSBC "We've never seen anything like it. We've never seen anything of this scale, and we've never seen a lockup phased in this way," Peter Singlehurst, head of Baillie Gifford's private companies team, which first invested in Musk's company in 2018, told Bloomberg. "We're in uncharted waters." The incoming wave of supply has attracted short sellers to pile bearish bets on SpaceX. Data compiled by S3 Partners through Tuesday's close shows that 35% of the float is sold short. That short interest is so concerning to Musk that he even felt compelled to comment and taunt bears hours before earnings on Tuesday. "I try to warn them, but they just double down...," Musk wrote in an X post responding to a report citing proprietary data from S3 Partners. I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷‍♂️ — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 4, 2026 Shares initially rallied following Musk's comments but have since reversed course, sliding back toward the $109 level. On Monday, the stock touched a record low of $104.83, leaving it 22.4% below its $135 offering price and 53.5% beneath its June peak of $225. The selloff has erased more than $1 trillion in market value. Here's how Wall Street currently views the stock: A large trading desk told us earlier this week that its team has yet to initiate any buy orders but may begin considering a long position once the first lockup expiration is underway. Tyler Durden Thu, 08/06/2026 - 07:45