Zerohedge

UAE Unveils Jet-Powered Kamikaze Drone As War Gets A Lot Scarier UAE state-backed defense company EDGE Group has released footage on X, unveiling a new low-cost, jet-powered kamikaze drone, the latest signal that the hyperdevelopment of drone warfare is accelerating. EDGE Group unveiled the Shadow 25, a jet-powered loitering munition described as a rapid-strike system designed to deliver precision attacks against fixed targets. Shadow 25 can reach speeds in excess of 650 mph, about 5.42 times faster than the Iranian Shahed-136 drone. It has a range of 155 miles, which EDGE says offers "new opportunities to swiftly neutralize stationary enemy targets." Capability built for modern operations. Combining jet-powered speed, advanced guidance, and precision targeting, SHADOW 25 supports forces with rapid, reliable, mission-ready performance when it matters most. pic.twitter.com/yaEessVgTZ — EDGE (@_edgegroup) March 27, 2026 EDGE is one of the UAE's top national defense companies, developing, manufacturing, and supporting military and security products and services, including autonomous systems, missiles, naval platforms, electronic warfare, and radar systems. Company Structure (data via Sayari): Corporate Network (data via Sayari): EDGE has also been expanding its industrial footprint and international partnerships. In 2025, it said it operated more than 170 manufacturing and assembly facilities across the UAE. Our takeaway is that after four years of hyperdevelopment in drone warfare across Ukraine, the US-Iran conflict now appears poised to unleash an evolutionary leap in drone warfare. The next phase is likely to be defined by fast strike drones and more advanced AI-enabled targeting, further compressing the kill chain and deepening battlefield automation. Across Eurasia, war is spreading, from Ukraine to the Gulf.  Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 04:15

US Senators Seek To Sanction Hungary Over Obstructing Ukraine Aid Because US Congress is perfectly functional, and all domestic issues have been resolved (one would very ironically think), the FT reports that a bipartisan pair of US senators are set to introduce legislation calling for sanctions to be imposed on senior Hungarian officials involved in obstructing aid to Ukraine. If passed, the Block Putin act would require President Trump to impose financial sanctions and visa bans on Hungarian government officials involved in the country’s purchases of Russian oil and gas, and who have sought to block support for Ukraine. The introduction of the bill comes as Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has held up a €90bn EU loan to Ukraine as he faces a tough re-election campaign ahead of parliamentary elections next month. Opinion polls indicated Orbán, who has served as prime minister since 2010, could lose power. The opposition Tisza party’s lead stood at 23% points on Wednesday, according to pollster Median. Pro-government polls show a slight lead for Orbán’s ruling Fidesz. Orbán, historically aligned with Vladimir Putin, has accused Kyiv of disrupting the flow of Moscow’s oil to Hungary by stalling repairs to the Druzhba pipeline, which transits Ukraine.  Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Thom Tillis, co-chairs of the Senate Nato observer group, are set to introduce the legislation this week. The pair have been outspoken about Europe’s continued dependence on Russian energy.  Tillis said: “The United States and our allies must remain united in supporting Ukraine and in cutting off the revenue streams that fuel Putin’s war.” “This bill holds senior Hungarian officials accountable while giving Hungary a clear path to get back in line with its allies by ending its reliance on Russian energy and stopping its obstruction of support for Ukraine,” he added. Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, said: “It is beyond belief that vice-president Vance is reportedly planning on visiting Hungary to provide an electoral boost to a corrupt government that continues to help fund Russia’s war machine.” “If we want this war in Ukraine to end, the Trump administration needs to be consistent in holding our allies to the same standards; no one, especially Viktor Orbán, should get a free pass,” she said. While much of the continent has sought to wean itself off Russian oil and gas supplies since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary and Slovakia have increased their dependence on Russian energy... and lucky for them, as now the "rest of the continent" is about to go dry as a result of the Iran war. Complicating matters, Trump is very close to Orbán and has endorsed his re-election bid. Politico on Wednesday reported preparations were being made for US vice-president JD Vance to visit Hungary days ahead of the elections.  Trump has criticized Europe for continuing to buy Russian energy and has urged the continent to take the lead in supporting Ukraine. “They’re buying oil and gas from Russia while they’re fighting Russia,” Trump said in his address to the UN General Assembly in September.  The draft text of the bill, which has been seen by the FT, does not mention Orbán explicitly as a target of the sanctions. Therefore, it would fall to the Trump administration to determine which Hungarian officials have been involved in holding up aid to Ukraine and continuing the country’s dependency on Russian energy, a congressional aide said. Orbán and his foreign minister Péter Szijjártó have long sought close ties with Russia, with Szijjártó meeting his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov more than 20 times since the start of the war in 2022. The ruling Fidesz party has made anti-Ukraine messages the central element of its election campaign and insisted on maintaining Russian oil imports. “If President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy wants to get his money from Brussels, he must open the Druzhba crude pipeline,” Orbán said in a video message to the Ukrainian president last week. “They tell us openly that they don’t want to allow cheap Russian oil through to Hungary, so the situation is very simple. No oil — no money.” Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 02:45

Global Demand Destruction: Subsidies, Empty Gas Stations, Rationing, Flight Cancelations, Export Limits, Price Controls In the past two weeks we have discussed demand destruction as a result of soaring oil prices (here and here), and we are increasingly seeing anecdotal evidence of just that (here is a table from Goldman we showed previously, laying out where demand destruction is most acute). We start, as always, with Asia which has emerged as ground zero of the global energy crisis - as a reminder last week we first presented a map by JPMorgan's resident commodity expert who how the shockwave from the Iran war spreads across the world, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US, but mostly California. Source According to UBS, a shortage of jet fuel in Asia and very high prices for what is available are now leading to greater flight cancellations. European jet fuel trades around $1713/tonne, up 114% since the war began. Singapore fuel is up around 140%. Both Vietnam Airlines and Air New Zealand have had to cancel flights due to limited fuel supply. Let's go down the list. 1. Panic buying prompts PM to reassure Australians over fuel supply (bbc) Australia will halve its fuel excise for three months from Wednesday after prices soared to a record last week as the impact of the Iran war spreads.  Meanwhile, the average price of a liter of diesel jumped above A$2.82 last week, while petrol was almost A$2.40, both the highest in at least 20 years. The average price in rural regions like the Northern Territory was even higher, a blow to farmers and long-distance transport firms. The temporary cut would reduce the price of petrol and diesel by about 26 Australian cents ($0.18) per liter, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said at a press conference Monday in Canberra. “The longer this war goes on, the worse the impacts will be,” he said. The government will also reduce the heavy road user charge for the next three months, and delay the next planned increased in that charge by six months. The measures are expected to cost about A$2.55 billion and to lower CPI by 0.5 ppt, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said. Albanese has sought to reassure Australians that the country's fuel supply remains "secure" as prices soar and following reports of panic buying and petrol stations running dry since the start of the Iran war. There have been reports of truck drivers and other motorists stranded, while businesses say rising costs are affecting their viability.  The government says demand and distribution issues have caused shortages rather than supply, which it says remains at the same level as before the war began. In Cairns, Queensland, the BBC found a small independent garage that tells a pretty typical story in Australia. It has run out of unleaded petrol and the price of diesel is 85% higher than it was before the war in Iran started. In New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, one in seven retailers say they are out of at least one type of fuel. The price of diesel in Sydney has meanwhile risen to the 314.5 cents a litre as of Thursday, according to the National Roads and Motorists' Association (NRMA), its highest ever price. Hundreds of petrol stations across the country have reported running out of at least one type of fuel this week. But shortages are due to people changing their buying habits, NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury told the BBC. "People are filling up jerry cans of fuel and storing it in their garages," he said. "We're hearing increasingly of transport companies telling their drivers that if you're half full and you see diesel, buy it." 2. Japan Says Oil Reserves for Domestic Use Amid Asia Pleas for Aid (bbg) Japan’s trade minister said the country will sell oil from its reserves to domestic refiners as a general rule, signaling that the government isn’t currently planning to channel national supplies directly to other Asian nations seeking assistance. “Regarding the sale of strategic petroleum reserves, we are certainly targeting domestic oil and refining companies,” Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Friday, pointing out that they were legally established to secure Japan’s own energy supplies. “However, the situation may differ somewhat for joint reserves with oil-producing countries. We intend to closely monitor developments and make appropriate decisions on a case-by-case basis.” Other Asian countries are facing similar oil supply challenges. The Philippines and Vietnam have reportedly sought support from Japan, which holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves. In addition to its own reserves, Japan also has reserves held with oil producing nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Akazawa said he is well aware of the Philippines’ dire situation, noting that its reserves are far smaller than Japan’s while it relies heavily on the strait to secure oil, as Japan does. 3. Japan to relax rules from April to boost coal-fired power amid LNG import risks (reuters) Japan's industry ministry will relax ‌rules for one year to increase the use of coal-fired power plants in the fiscal year starting April, as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran adds uncertainty to liquefied natural gas imports, it said on Friday. Japan takes delivery of some 4 million ​metric tons of LNG annually - or around 6% of its total imports - via the Strait of ​Hormuz, which has been effectively closed due to the war. "There is increasing uncertainty about ⁠future LNG procurement. We believe that it is necessary to increase the operation of coal-fired power plants and ​save LNG fuel," an industry ministry official told a special government panel. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry ​proposed suspending for one year its 50% cap on the capacity utilisation rate of coal-fired power plants with generation efficiency below 42%. LNG consumption could then fall by about 0.5 million tons a year, or slightly more than 10% of the LNG it imports ​via the Strait of Hormuz, according to a METI's estimate. The ministry will implement the change from April 1 ​as an emergency measure and there were no objections from the panel members, the official told Reuters. Japan has an LNG stockpile of around 4 million tons, METI data showed. Its thermal power generation largely depends on LNG and coal, with a small portion covered by oil, with electricity also being generated from nuclear power and renewable energy. So far, Japan has restarted ​15 nuclear power reactors of ​33 which remain operable ⁠after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in 2011. 4. India Slaps Taxes on Fuel Exports as Iran War Jolts Supply (bbg) India has announced a series of tax changes including a levy on fuel exports, as the country tries to shield consumers from the impact of a deepening conflict in the Middle East that has upended energy supply. The South Asian nation imposed a 21.5 rupee (23 cents) per liter duty on exports of diesel and 29.5 rupees on jet fuel, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a post on X. “This will ensure adequate availability of these products for domestic consumption,” she said.  India has also slashed taxes on locally sold gasoline and diesel by 10 rupees per liter each, a reduction intended to help keep prices stable at the pump.  As the third-largest oil consumer, India is among the countries most impacted by the war in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the region with the wider world. It has seen acute shortages of liquefied petroleum gas, used for cooking, and of liquefied natural gas. The country raised LPG prices earlier this month and subsequent speculation around a likely increase in pump prices of diesel and gasoline has led to panic buying, with people lining up outside forecourts. The energy crunch comes at a delicate time for a price-sensitive country, with elections in key states where Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is looking to expand its foothold. Opposition parties have been pressing for more forceful measures to address the fuel crunch. Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, estimates the government’s annualized revenue loss from tax cuts at about 1.55 trillion rupees ($16.4 billion).  Diesel and jet fuel together form a significant portion of India’s refined product exports. Last month, India supplied around 500,000 barrels a day of the two products combined, out of the roughly 1.2 million barrels a day of fuels exported, tanker trading data from intelligence firms Vortexa and Kpler showed.  The government will lose 70 billion rupees every fortnight due to the excise duty cut, Vivek Chaturvedi, chairman of the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, told reporters at the daily government briefing on the situation. However, it expects to collect about 15 billion rupees over the same period from export taxes levied on jet fuel and diesel, he said.  5. Thailand Tightens Fuel Pricing, Supply Disclosure Amid Shortages (bbg) Thailand is tightening oversight of fuel pricing and supply as authorities ramp up efforts to address shortages across parts of the country. Refineries must display selling prices at their sites along with current inventory levels, under new directives outlined by the Energy Ministry late Thursday. Traders are required to adhere to declared prices and cannot charge above government-set levels, it said. The Southeast Asian country has faced fuel shortages in several provinces as the Middle East conflict drives up global oil prices, widening the gap between subsidized domestic rates and international markets. Fears of tighter supplies have sparked panic buying, particularly of diesel, despite government assurances that stocks can last about 100 days. While authorities have taken steps to shore up supplies to retail outlets, many pumps have had to ration fuel as agriculture and industrial users queued up with jerry cans along with commuters to buy diesel. Diesel demand has jumped to about 87 million liters per day from an average 67 million liters before the start of the conflict, according to the ministry. The government has already raised retail prices to ease pressure on subsidies. However, even after Thursday’s increase, it is still subsidizing diesel at 19 baht (58 US cents) per liter, pushing the oil subsidy fund’s deficit to about 38 billion baht, acting Energy Minister Auttapol Rerkpiboon said. 6. Vietnamese Airlines Slash Flights From April on Jet Fuel Crunch (bbg) Vietnamese airlines will significantly reduce flights and scale back operations from April as soaring jet fuel prices and supply constraints squeeze the industry, prompting carriers to focus on core routes as the Middle East conflict drags on. Vietnam Airlines, the national carrier, will suspend seven domestic routes from April 1, according to a document from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam. The airline plans to cut 10-20% of its flights per month in the next quarter if jet fuel reaches $160-$200 per barrel, the document said. That could mean up to 18% of its international flights being canceled and up to 26% on domestic routes. Low-cost carrier Vietjet Air is targeting an 18% reduction in total capacity in April, including a 22% cut in domestic flights and an 11% reduction in international routes, the document said. Bamboo Airways passengers are expected to see the biggest disruption in April, with flights halved to 15–17 per day. Vietnam has moved to shore up energy security after severe disruptions to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the government to tap its emergency fuel fund to stabilize prices. The country’s two domestic refineries meet around 70% of its domestic demand, but more than 80% of its crude imports come from Middle East.  The government announced on Friday it will temporarily freeze some taxes on gasoline, oil and jet fuel until April 15 as an ‘urgent’ move to stabilize the domestic market and ensure national security due to the ongoing conflict 7. Asia employs energy price control and subsidies  (WoodMac) Asian governments have rapidly deployed an unprecedented array of cushions to protect the hardest-hit sectors and consumers. But such interventions come at a staggering cost and, if oil prices remain high, some Asian governments will soon hit fiscal breaking point.  Asian countries are trying to prevent a repeat of the 2022 cost-of-living crisis. Beyond demand-side management, Asian governments have shifted from market pricing for oil products to aggressive intervention. A plethora of policy responses are being rolled out across the region. Most, though, amount to pretty much the same thing – subsidies for consumers. Price caps at the pump are the go-to lever, with governments compensating losses through a variety of mechanisms. In Indonesia, losses by national oil company (NOC) Pertamina will be recovered by government compensation later; Japan and Malysia have a similar scheme for their refiners and fuel suppliers. In Thailand and Vietnam, oil company losses are currently made good from dedicated funds – though the longevity of these funds is already being tested. China, meanwhile, has a US$130/bbl crude price ‘cap’ on refined product prices that refiners can pass through to customers. Perhaps in anticipation of higher prices, China introduced subsidies on diesel and gasoline this week despite the cap not being breached. India has a twist on the theme. The government moved fast to freeze retail prices but the state-owned oil marketing companies initially have to absorb the losses. Once these become unsustainable, the central government intervenes by cutting taxes, essentially sacrificing tax revenue to keep the pump price stable. The affordability of current subsidy schemes varies greatly by country. Thailand and Vietnam have tapped into budget rainy-day funds to make subsidy payments. But Thailand’s fund is already in deficit, while Vietnam’s will be fully drawn by early April under the current subsidy scale. Expanded fiscal deficits look near-certain through 2026 across much of Asia. If Brent averages US$100/bbl for four months, India is hit hardest among Asia’s major economies: we estimate a cost equivalent to 0.7% of GDP and 7.2% of government revenue in fiscal year 2025-26. Indonesia is in danger of breaching its legal limit of 3% on its fiscal deficit if subsidy payments persist On to Africa... 8. Kenya Plans to Stabilize Fuel Price as Outages Hit Some Stations (bbg) Kenya plans to stabilize fuel prices as some stations run out of supply in the East African nation that typically depends on Middle East imports to meet demand. Vitol Group’s Vivo Energy, the biggest retailer in the country, said Thursday in a post on X that increased fuel demand resulted in temporary outages at some of its outlets. Kenya’s Treasury Secretary John Mbadi the same day outlined initial measures to be taken by the government to keep petrol and diesel prices from surging. Kenya will utilize its petroleum development levy to cap pump prices, though a lengthy war could become an emergency, Mbadi told lawmakers in the capital, Nairobi. “It is my hope that we will not see this war prolonged for another month or so.” Many African economies, particularly in East and Southern Africa where the Middle East is a major exporter, are running on weeks of stored refined products as the Iran war chokes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Governments have this week sought to reassure residents that there are sufficient stocks and asked them not to hoard fuel. Kenya’s outlying gas stations have been the first to dry up as major oil companies are holding back from wholesaling product that would normally be distributed, according to a lobby group of independent operators. “Rural stations are the worst hit — we can’t get product at competitive prices,” said Martin Chomba, chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya. About 68% of Kenya’s 6,200 gas stations are non-franchised and a “substantial number are not able to access products,” he said. ... and Europe 9. Czechs May Cap Fuel Margins as Premier Slams Retail Prices (bbg) The Czech government said it’s considering regulating retail margins at gas stations after Prime Minister Andrej Babis criticized the two largest fuel distributors in the country for what he called “outrageous” prices at the pumps. Local media have reported that cost of petrol and diesel in the Czech Republic has shown one of the biggest jumps in the European Union since the outbreak of the war in Iran. While several nations in central and eastern Europe have adopted measures to ease the impact of surging oil on households and businesses, the Czech government rejected opposition proposals to lower excise taxes because of the impact on budget deficit. “Instead, we are prepared to do something actually effective, and that is for instance regulating margins at the pumps,” Finance Minister Alena Schillerova said in a post on X Friday. “This option and other steps will be the main topic at the government meeting on Monday.” The premier, a chemicals and agriculture billionaire who returned to power last year, urged Poland’s Orlen SA and Hungary’s Mol Nyrt to lower their prices immediately. “I’m asking you not to abuse the current situation in supply of fuels caused by the Iran crisis,” Babis said in a video on his Facebook account.  Officials in Prague previously stated they wouldn’t cut fuel taxes to ease the hit from energy shock, saying such a move wouldn’t guarantee lower retail prices. Orlen Unipetrol, the Czech unit of the Polish group, is operating in line with the law and its prices are set by the market, the CTK newswire reported, citing spokesman Pavel Kaidl. A spokesman for Mol’s Czech unit told the Seznamzpravy news website that fuel prices are determined mainly by oil prices on international markets, while taxes also have a significant influence.  10. Poland Plans Fuel Tax Cuts to Shield Consumers From High Prices (bbg) Poland is joining a group of countries that shield consumers from surging fuel prices with a plan to cut taxes and cap prices at the pump, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The government will reduce the value-added tax and excise levies on fuels as well as impose a cap on retail prices that will be set daily in  line with wholesale levels, Tusk told a news conference on Thursday. The moves, which need parliamentary approval, are expected to slash fuel costs by 1.2 zloty ($0.32) per liter and could take effect by Easter, Tusk said. The cabinet is also preparing windfall tax on fuel refiners — a measure that’s set to impact Polish energy champion Orlen SA, the largest company in Warsaw’s benchmark WIG20 stock index. Its shares have lost as much as 6.7% in the wake of the announcement. The oil-importing nation has seen one of the sharpest increases in fuel prices among European Union members since the start of the Iran war. Unleaded gasoline costs have jumped 22%, while diesel by 40%, according to European Commission data. This compares with average increases of around 15% for gasoline and 26% for diesel across the 27-nation bloc. * * *  And as the global shockwave from the Iran war gets more acute, expect the response from officials and authorities to become increasingly more panicked. Tyler Durden Sun, 03/29/2026 - 23:38

LNG Crisis From Bad To Worse As Storm Damage Adds Weeks To Restart Of Chevron Wheatstone Plant The perfect storm surrounding the global LNG supply chain, which hit a brick wall two weeks ago when Iranian attacks shuttered 17% of Qatar's LNG output following devastating strikes on the Ras Laffan plant, the largest in the world, just went from metaphorical to literal after storm damage to Chevron’s Wheatstone gas plant in Western Australia is hampering efforts to restart operations and the facility won’t be back online fully for weeks, adding even more turmoil to the global LNG market. Wheatstone gas plant, Australia As Reuters reports, tropical Cyclone Narelle was estimated to have disrupted Australian LNG facilities along the northern and western coasts, and disrupted supply equating to more than 30 million metric tons per ​year. Combined with the shock from conflict in the Middle East, ​more than a quarter of global LNG supply has been ⁠disrupted, MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic said on Friday. “The Wheatstone gas facility near Onslow has had equipment damage from the severe weather, which has impacted restart activities,” Chevron said in a statement, adding that “while damage assessments ​continue at both the onshore Wheatstone plant and offshore Wheatstone Platform, it is ​likely to be a number of weeks before production returns to full rates to allow time for repairs to be safely completed." As we reported last week, Chevron said earlier in the week that one of three LNG production units at its Gorgon plant was halted, as well as a platform that feeds Wheatstone, which is a two-train LNG project which produces 8.9 million tons ​a year, about 15% of which is meant to be reserved for the domestic market. On Sunday it said the 15.9 million ton Gorgon LNG export facility and domestic plant continued to operate at full rates, adding that ​all of its ​three trains returned ⁠to full production on Sunday. The storm also hit infrastructure feeding Woodside Energy Group's North West Shelf export plant. The company said it’s working to resume normal operations, and output continues at its Macedon and Pluto gas facilities. Woodside also said ship loading at Pluto LNG is restarting following the reopening on Saturday of Dampier port. Gorgon, Wheatstone and North West Shelf accounted for almost half of Australia’s exports last month, or about 8.4% of the global trade, according to researcher EnergyQuest. Australia became the world’s second-largest LNG exporter when Qatar shut down production this month ​after Iranian airstrikes damaged its facilities. The country most impacted from the Australian outage will likely be China, which following the Qatar force majeure production halt has been forced to rely on Australian product to a far greater degree.  Tyler Durden Sun, 03/29/2026 - 22:45

Beyond Muscle: New Research Shows Creatine Powers The Brain - Fast Creatine is an amazing compound that our bodies make naturally. Long used in the gym for peak muscle performance, a flood of recent research shows that it has profound effects on brain metabolism, cognitive performance under stress (including sleep deprivation), memory, attention, and even mood support. It's also extremely safe for the vast majority of people.  Most people need 2-3 grams/day as a baseline - with our bodies making roughly 1g/day from amino acids in the liver, kidneys, and pancreas. According to new studies, boosting creatine intake beyond baseline is extremely good for your brain in everyday healthy adults. One 2024 systematic review and meta-analysis (Frontiers) of 16 randomized controlled trials found that regular creatine supplementation led to improvements in memory and gains in attention and processing speed. These benefits showed up across adults (including healthy individuals). Another review highlighted particularly noticeable memory gains in healthy older adults. And if you're elbow-crawling at work after a night of insomnia, a big dose can have significant effects and kick in fast (within a couple of hours). In one double-blind, randomized study (Nature), participants running on fumes after 21 hours of sleep deprivation experienced a 10.3% boost in word memory performance (plus 17.7% faster processing) and 16–29% gains in processing speed for language, logic, and numeric tasks. But before we get into the science...  Let's get this out of the way; you probably know we sell creatine, so this is obviously an ad. But whether you buy it from us or not, you should take note of what these studies have found and consider taking it as part of your daily stack. Long story short, it works well, we use it, and the stuff we sell is high-grade, pure micronized creatine (5g/scoop). The jar it comes in is pretty big and it lasts a while. Support yourself & support the site - buy some here. And if you don't buy ours, just check it out.  Actual product:  And now for the studies Gym rats have known this for decades about Creatine, it increases strength, muscle mass, and training capacity by rapidly regenerating the body’s cellular fuel, ATP. The latest research suggests that this molecule may be less a niche performance enhancer and more a universal energy buffer for human life. Brain Benefits in Healthy Adults A 2024 systematic review and meta-analysis in Frontiers in Nutrition looked at 16 randomized controlled trials involving 492 adults. Creatine supplementation showed positive effects on memory, attention time, and processing speed. A separate 2023 meta-analysis in Nutrition Reviews focused specifically on memory in healthy individuals and found overall improvements, with particularly noticeable gains in older adults. The two studies found; Better overall memory performance with creatine supplementation Faster attention and quicker thinking/processing speed Particularly noticeable memory improvements in healthy older adults (ages 66–76) Stronger benefits often seen in women and people aged 18–60 Improvements showed up in both healthy adults and those under various types of stress Fast-Acting Support When Sleep-Deprived When you're running on empty after little or no sleep, brain energy systems take a hit. The 2024 Scientific Reports (Nature) study tested whether a single high dose could help. Fifteen healthy adults went through 21 hours of sleep deprivation twice. They received either a large dose of creatine monohydrate (0.35 g/kg body weight - roughly 20–30 grams for most people) or a placebo. Brain scans showed better preservation of energy metabolites, and cognitive testing revealed real improvements: a 10.3% boost in word memory (with 17.7% faster processing) and 16–29% gains in processing speed on language, logic, and numeric tasks. Effects started showing within about 3 hours. This doesn't replace sleep, but it suggests creatine can act as a quick buffer when you're seriously short on rest. Short-Term Loading Improves Sleep and Cognition A December 2025 randomized, double-blind trial in Nutrients tested a practical 7-day loading protocol in 14 physically active men (20 g/day, split into 4 × 5 g doses). After loading, participants reported significantly better subjective sleep quality and went to bed earlier. They also showed improved performance on a cognitive attention test and reduced muscle soreness, plus better output in high-intensity exercise. This adds to the picture: even in normal training life, short-term higher dosing can help how you feel and perform when sleep isn't perfect. Safety: One of the Best Profiles Out There Creatine monohydrate has been studied extensively for decades. A comprehensive 2025 review in Frontiers in Nutrition analyzed over 680 clinical trials involving more than 12,800 participants (with doses up to 30 g/day and use lasting up to 14 years). No clinical adverse events were linked to creatine, and minor side effects were no different from placebo. Worldwide adverse event reporting over 50 years also shows creatine mentioned in an extremely small fraction of cases despite billions of doses consumed. It remains one of the safest and most researched supplements available for healthy people. Practical Takeaways for Most People Daily maintenance: 3–5 grams per day (one scoop of our product = 5g). Simple, effective, and what most long-term users stick with for brain and body support. Short loading phase: 20 g/day (split into 4 doses) for 5–7 days if you want faster saturation, then drop back to 3–5 g. Occasional high-dose rescue: Around 20–30 g (body-weight adjusted) when you know sleep will be terrible. Hydrate well and don't make it a habit — it's for occasional use. Vegetarians and vegans often notice bigger effects since they get almost none from diet. Women and adults in the broader 18–60+ range also tend to show good responses in the studies. Creatine won't turn you into a genius or fix chronic sleep debt, but the growing evidence shows it can be a cheap, convenient daily tool to help your brain's energy systems work better - whether you're grinding through work, training, aging, or just trying to stay sharp. We take it every day. If you're ready to add it to your stack, grab a jar here. Or pick up any high-quality micronized creatine monohydrate - the research is what matters most. This is for informational purposes only and not medical advice. Consult your doctor before starting any supplement, especially if you have kidney concerns or other health conditions. Tyler Durden Sun, 03/29/2026 - 21:25

This Is What You Get When Commies Are Running NYC... Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, New York City, already reeling from crime under years of radical leftist rule, now faces a proposal that sounds ripped straight from a communist energy-rationing handbook: mandatory blackouts every night. Manhattan Assemblywoman Deborah Glick is sponsoring the “Dark Skies Protection Act,” which would require businesses and residents to turn off non-essential lighting between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m.  Critics are blasting it as a criminal’s dream come true in a city that already struggles with safety after dark. New York City is proposing a World Economic Forum inspired law that would require a blackout to be put in place to save the energy grid. Known as the “Dark Skies Protection Act,” it would require businesses and residents to turn off non essential lighting between 11 p.m. and 5… pic.twitter.com/cf6tFXRJvY — Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) March 28, 2026 The bill itself spells out its goals in the legislation: “preserve and enhance the state’s dark sky while promoting safety for people, birds and other wildlife, conserving energy and reducing our carbon footprint, and preserving the aesthetic qualities of the night sky.” It adds: “Our ancestors were able to experience a night sky full of stars, but now 80% of Americans can no longer see the Milky Way and experience its profound beauty.” The full pitch on light pollution reads: “Light pollution has many negative impacts, including the disruption of the natural patterns of wildlife, wasted energy and increased output of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases, interruption of human sleep and other adverse health impacts, and the loss of the aesthetic qualities and cultural significance of the night sky.” On birds, it states: “70% of bird species migrate each year. And of those birds, 80% migrate at night, using the night sky to help them navigate to and from their breeding grounds. However, as they pass over big cities on their way, they can become disoriented by bright artificial lights, often causing them to collide with buildings or windows.” No bright idea! Lawmaker wants to force NYC to go dark after 11 p.m. - and critics say it's a criminal's dream bill https://t.co/iA55mpypfo pic.twitter.com/mo3pHA9QNA — New York Post (@nypost) March 26, 2026 That’s all well and good, but there is an ongoing rampant crime epidemic in New York City. Is the safety of birds more important in than the safety of people? Lights used for travel would be exempt, but the bill is already drawing fire. One observer on X put it bluntly: “Criminal gangs approve this message.” Another wrote sarcastically: “Good then criminals can maraud the populace under cover of darkness as intended!” “What could go wrong?” a third asked. A fourth added: “I’m all for seeing the stars but New York is not exactly a safe place.” NYS Conservative Party chairman Gerard Kassar summed it up: “I guess Glick wants to push one last ridiculous idea before she retires.” The idiotic cherry on top of this maniac idea comes with Times Square getting spared while the rest of the city is plunged into darkness. This isn’t environmentalism. It’s control dressed up as virtue. In a city where crime already spikes at night and leftist policies have made streets less secure, mandating a nightly blackout is an open invitation for chaos. This is the exact kind of thing you’d expect to see in a communist hellhole, the inevitable result of that ideology—failing grids, forced darkness, and everyday people paying the price while the system pretends it’s for the greater good. The same pattern played out in Cuba, where communist mismanagement triggered repeated total grid collapses, leaving millions without power for days and exposing the rot at the core of that system. New Yorkers wouldn’t be getting safer skies or saved birds—they’d be experiencing rationed freedom while the real problems go unaddressed.  This bill may not pass, but the mindset behind it reveals everything about who’s steering the ship in blue-city America. Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. *  *  * COMMIES HATE IT WHEN YOU FEED YOURSELF   Tyler Durden Sun, 03/29/2026 - 18:40

Sophisticated Drone Swarms Disrupt Operations At Barksdale Air Force Base Earlier this month, Barksdale Air Force Base in Bossier Parish, Louisiana, faced an unprecedented threat from sophisticated drone swarms. These drones, operating in waves of 12 to 15 units each, loitered over the base for approximately four hours daily, disrupting critical operations and forcing the Air Force to halt activities and shelter personnel.  This marked the first time a U.S. air base was temporarily taken out of operation in wartime, a scenario that had never occurred even during World War II. “Barksdale is the headquarters of the Air Force’s Global Strike Command, which is responsible for the nation’s nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bomber forces, including B2, B1, and B52 aircraft,” explains The National Interest. “The base is home to the 2nd Bomb Wing B52s and is the central hub of communications and logistical support for coordinating and directing those forces.” It’s hard to overstate just how alarming this is. Potentially hostile drones were able to operate over a critical military installation for days with what looks like total impunity. And making matters worse, the disruption caused by the drone swarms impacted B-52H aircraft launches for Operation Epic Fury against Iran, delaying critical missions and potentially compromising the effectiveness of the operation. According to a report from Asia Times, “the drones that operated over Barksdale were far more sophisticated than anything seen in Ukraine, where drones are used heavily, and well beyond Iranian capabilities.” The drone waves lasted around four hours each day, an extraordinarily long loiter time for a drone. It is not known if the drones were fixed wing or quadcopter types, or how they were powered (liquid fuel or electrical). Each wave consisted of 12 to 15 drones, and the drones flew with their lights on, intentionally making them visible. Barksdale AFB does not have air defenses, nor does it have fighter jets that can take down drones. The airbase does have some electronic countermeasures that were designed to disable GPS and the datalinks between the drones and their remote operators. The electronic countermeasures failed to work. In fact, their ability to resist broad-spectrum jamming and operate using non-commercial signal characteristics made them particularly challenging to detect and neutralize. The drones also employed varied ingress and egress routes and dispersed patterns, complicating efforts to trace their origins. Despite the base's electronic countermeasures designed to disable GPS and datalinks, they failed to disable the sophisticated drones.  At the very least, the incident exposed a major gap in U.S. air defenses, especially at bases like Barksdale that don’t have systems in place to stop this kind of threat. Even more concerning, these drones could potentially carry heavy weapons or conduct surveillance over sensitive nuclear facilities—raising serious national security alarms.  It’s not known where the drones came from, but China is believed to be a likely source, given the drones’ advanced capabilities, which appear to outmatch much of the U.S. arsenal. The activity could be retaliation for the 2023 shootdown of Chinese spy balloons, which Joe Biden delayed until after they had already surveilled multiple U.S. military sites. The operation’s persistence and precision point to trained operators who likely smuggled the equipment into the country. This incident makes one thing clear: it’s time for a serious reassessment of domestic air defense, especially as drones become a growing threat. The problem is, the United States is still years away from having effective domestic counter-drone capabilities. *  *  * Order by midnight! Now with cheaper shipping Tyler Durden Sun, 03/29/2026 - 16:55

Iran Allowing 20 More Ships Through Strait Of Hormuz, Pakistan Says Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times, Iran has agreed to allow 20 Pakistani-flagged ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz unharmed, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced on March 28. Dar presented the announcement as a sign of good faith from Tehran, as Iranian forces continue to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has actively targeted shipping in the region as part of its retaliation for U.S. and Israeli attacks on the leadership and military of the Islamic regime for its nuclear program, which have continued since Feb. 28. “I am pleased to share a great news that the Government of Iran has agreed to allow 20 more ships under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” Dar said in an X post on Saturday. The Pakistani foreign minister said two ships will be permitted to leave through the narrow maritime passage daily. Oil tanker carrying Saudi crude to Pakistan. Map frm @Kpler pic.twitter.com/qSUSTca7k1 — Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) March 29, 2026 In recent days, the Pakistani government has stepped forward as a potential intermediary for communications and further peace talks between Washington and Tehran. Dar said Tehran’s decision to allow these 20 ships through the Strait of Hormuz marks “a meaningful step toward peace and will strengthen our collective efforts in that direction.” The move came two days after President Donald Trump announced that Iran had let 10 oil tankers through the key Middle East waterway. “Dialogue, diplomacy, and such confidence-building measures are the only way forward,” Dar wrote on X. Trump has recently cited progress in negotiations with Tehran to end the war, but Iranian officials have downplayed the significance of the communications. In a statement shared by Iranian state media, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had received messages from Washington by way of intermediaries but said, “this is not considered a negotiation.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke by phone with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Saturday. According to the Pakistani prime minister’s office, Pezeshkian said trust is needed in order to advance talks with Washington. During a cabinet meeting earlier this week, Trump said that Iranian officials have, in private, been far more adamant about negotiating an end to the ongoing conflict. “They say, ‘Oh, we’re not talking’ ... They are begging to work out a deal,” Trump said. Last week, Trump threatened to destroy Iranian energy sites if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened to shipping within 48 hours. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to completely close down access to the Strait of Hormuz and target energy facilities in Middle Eastern countries that host U.S. forces, along with other critical infrastructure like water desalination plants. Trump has since postponed his strike deadline to April 6. Tyler Durden Sun, 03/29/2026 - 15:10

From Market Economist To Military Strategist By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Technically I’m not an economist, I just play one on TV (CNBC and Bloomberg TV from last Monday). While I am not a military strategist, everyone in the market and corporate America is being forced to be one, to some extent. Academy is in a unique position to offer unbiased, nonpolitical assessments of the conflict with our Geopolitical Intelligence Group (“GIG”). I’ve lost track of how many conversations I’ve had with our retired Generals, Admirals, and Intelligence officers this past week, let alone since the start of the conflict. We cover a lot of topics during our conversations with clients, with Iran being at the forefront. Today I will do my best to provide an assessment of the most pressing concerns. The Geopolitical Intelligence Group has a range of opinions, but I think this is a fair assessment of the current consensus view. It is an honor and a privilege to work with the GIG (as well as a competitive advantage in this environment) and all our veterans. Any mistakes or misrepresentations are my own. That is the same set of conditions that applied to Ceasefire?, which we published earlier this week. That piece remains a useful framework for examining the conditions likely required to reach a deal. However, it was interesting that the President started trying to frame something along the lines of “the regime has changed so much, that it is like regime change.” After a “manic” week like this week, it is sometimes difficult to go back and review what we published last weekend – Another Manic Monday, but that too is worth re-reading. Finally, before jumping into today’s report, Academy’s Around the World Report and Around the World Podcast (with General (ret.) Evans and Admiral (ret.) Buss) were both released this week. Normalizing Tanker Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz We will try not to use the words “closed” or “open” in this report, because that doesn’t reflect the real issue. It isn’t about “opening” the Strait, it is about convincing the captains (and owners) of ships that they can transit the Strait just like they used to. This is an important distinction, from much of what you might hear or read. From a military standpoint: There is little evidence that the Strait has been extensively mined. Ships are making it through. It is possible they “know” where the mines are, but it is also possible (and likely) that there are relatively few mines. To the extent there are mines, addressing this threat is precisely what the Littoral Combat Ships assigned to 5th Fleet (with mine countermeasures capabilities and helicopter support) are designed to do. The main threats remain rockets, missiles, and drones. Especially those fired close to the shore. The time we have from launch, to detection, to interception is crucial to the success of our defenses. The closer the weapon is at the time of launch, the less time we have to hit it. The U.S. Navy is designed for situations like this. The AEGIS Combat System is specifically designed to defend U.S. ships against such attacks. Mines, mine layers, small ships packed with weapons, and unmanned surface ships (the naval equivalent of a drone) also pose a threat. Why haven’t we seen the Navy patrol the Strait? That is the question, as it has become clear that getting shipping back to normal would reduce the leverage Iran has on the global economy. While it is impossible to know (we are not getting all of the information available), here are some of the themes that come up when discussing this crucial question (it really is the $100 or $150 per barrel question). In all combat situations, there is always a balance between risk and reward. What are the risks of patrolling the Strait today versus striking other targets in Iran? What is the trade-off in risk to U.S. sailors, Marines, pilots, and even the ships today versus what they might be in a day or a week from now? Getting oil (and everything else flowing through the Strait) is a primary economic, and maybe even political concern, but should not drive military decisions. The caution may be because we have real concerns about how many weapons the Iranians are able to train on the Strait. It may be a function of some elements required to patrol the Strait being engaged elsewhere (we are sending more Marines, 82nd Airborne Division paratroopers, and ships to the region). Some of it might be adapting strategy to the asymmetric warfare threat (more on this later). The assessment of the GIG is we will get to the point of patrolling or routinely transiting the Strait, maybe in days, maybe longer, but only once the risk vs reward has been justified. What does it take to convince commercial vessels to go through? In theory, we could set up a “convoy” and send out a naval force (with air cover) and escort ships through the Strait. That is probably what will happen “eventually.” The decision for the Navy to sail in the Strait is very different than that of merchant vessels. The Navy is prepared for this, built for this, trained for this, and it is what those in service signed up to do. The “realistic” assessment from the GIG that I buy into, is it will take days of demonstrating the Navy’s ability to sail in the Strait without getting attacked before most merchant vessels will even think about trying to do it. Take this job and shove it, comes to mind. This is “just a job” to most of the merchant crews (and even the captain) and they are probably getting paid extra time to wait to cross, so it isn’t like they feel the urgency the market might feel. The insurance plan that the President ordered to be put in place will help (more with the owners than the crew), but I haven’t been able to find out much about the status of the U.S. government-backed plan (Chubb is the carrier being used to provide it according to the reports I’ve read). The merchant vessels might not even be comfortable if the Navy is getting shot at. This would be another reason for delaying the attempt until there is more certainty that Iran’s capability to attack the Strait is minimal. Finally, many of the cargo ships are likely going to need to go to port soon. 30 days of eating, and moving around the gulf, take a toll on supplies. The ports they are sailing to, may also not be able to handle them all at once (in the unlikely event they all try to go at once), further limiting how quickly the traffic through the Strait can be normalized. A lot to think about, but I think that is a realistic assessment of the thought process going on. What is against us, how much safer can we make it, and how do we convince commercial vessels to follow suit. Asymmetric Warfare The “concept” is simple – small, cheap weapons, maneuverable, easy to hide, against large expensive systems. Ukraine, first with a plant in the U.K. and now apparently a deal in the Gulf to supply drones, shows how much they have learned in 3 years of war with Russia. Much of which has devolved (or evolved) into drone warfare. Let’s list the “problems” first: Shooting down things that cost in the thousands with things that cost in the millions is a very expensive endeavor. It is far from ideal, but not the biggest problem. Production and replenishment is a more important issue. Have we used a year’s worth of production of some missile systems already? Maybe more. Ships in particular set sail with a limited amount weapons. If we were prepared for a “peer” battle, we were probably expecting to face ships and systems similarly equipped (not as good as the U.S. ones, but similar in concept, cost, etc.). But you cannot just let a “cheap” but effective drone hit you, you need to defend against it. Hopefully, in many cases, other weapons systems that aren’t as costly manage to take out the target. But this need to potentially replenish faster than expected can hamper some efforts. Really difficult to eradicate. Ballistic missile launches are relatively easy to detect. Ballistic missile launchers are often plodding. Mobile, yes, but not like driving a race car. The launchers are vulnerable after they launch, especially when the U.S. and Israel have Air Superiority (better than Supremacy). Step out of a cave, launch, run back into the cave or through some tunnel system. The fact of the matter is it is difficult to completely stop this threat “without boots on the ground.” This type of enemy is not easy to defeat with range weapons, and is likely why we are hearing more and more about the possibility of landing troops not just on one of the islands, but possibly on the coast where they can more thoroughly clear out the enemy positions (no official decision has been made yet regarding using troops in Iran). There are some “good” things: The U.S. military has had drones and has been developing drones for years. That development increased in intensity during the Russia/Ukraine war. It only ramped up further with this new administration. General (ret.) Tata, before starting the confirmation process to be an Undersecretary of War, was very focused on drones. There is no shortage of signals from this administration that they see the need for drones. While a “peacetime” military may be slow to adopt new strategies, that can change abruptly during conflict. Something that might struggle to get acceptance, that might be difficult to fund as it has to come at the expense of other projects, might struggle to get the attention it deserves in “normal” times. This is not normal times, so expect rapid advances in the number and capabilities of U.S. drones in the region. Separately, as discussed last week, if I was Europe I’d set up a drone consortium and start making them as fast as possible, bypassing the expensive military hardware for now. Drones don’t require as much sophistication to produce, so everyone can convert factories and ramp up production relatively quickly. The U.S. may not want to reveal “everything” we have. China is watching the U.S. military closely. They will be learning how our equipment works in the real world (not just in theory). How much damage does a certain missile do? How deep do the bunker busters go? What sort of things are we defending against easily and what is not working? No need to expose your best stuff, if you don’t think you need to. We might see more deployments of new systems. My working assumption is Asymmetric FOR NOW. The U.S. should be closing the gap on asymmetric warfare. Again, is that in time to keep the global economy (especially Asia) from tumbling into recession? I don’t know. While asymmetric warfare is a distinct topic from getting commercial vessels to sail through the Strait, it is highly correlated, and I’m cautiously optimistic this is being addressed at lightning speed. Other Risks The Houthis, until this weekend, had been quiet. Their involvement could open up more shipping problems as they can control a choke point around the Red Sea. It will also cause the U.S. and Gulf Countries to spread their military around. The Saudi pipeline is extremely helpful, but very vulnerable. While Iran (and the Houthis) might not want to attack production facilities or ships at sea, a pipeline like this might be too tempting to pass up. Little evidence of cyber-attacks. Maybe they weren’t as good as people thought? Maybe we hit their computer centers early in the war? Maybe our defenses are that good and we’ve hardened our critical infrastructure? If it is any of the above, it is a solid win for the U.S. Terrorist activity has not really occurred. Similar to cyber, maybe we have done a great job of identifying and destroying their “sleeper” cells. This has also been a positive and is one form of potential Iranian response we haven’t seen (and hope never to see again). Humanitarian Relief? At some point there will be humanitarian issues that need to be addressed in the region. Much of the region imports food. Iran imports food. It is unclear if much is getting through. This may provide a new “twist” to what is going on there. Who will allow what? Will China get involved? (They did make one statement about possibly being involved in humanitarian missions, but no statement about helping to open the Strait). At least not that I’ve seen. Strategic Move to Hurt China by Restricting Access to Oil? This comes up periodically. Was Venezuelan oil first, Iranian oil second, and Russian oil possibly third, all targeted in an attempt to hit China on energy? A way to push back on their control over processed and refined rare earths and critical minerals? There are some parts of what is going on that fit that narrative well. I’m not sure I buy into it. If it is true, it does mean the U.S. will need to see this conflict carried out until there really is a change in Iran regarding how they deal with the rest of the world. It does fit with my view that the administration would like U.S. companies to get some access to Iran’s energy business (and would frame that as helping change the regime over time). Declare Some Form of Victory and Move On The GIG has talked about shifting from the old model where “if we broke it, we fixed it” to one where “if we broke it, we might come back and break it again.”  It would leave the region in a confusing state. But some of the messaging (from the President and the Vice President) does have the tone - that we are setting up to declare some sort of victory and move on. Still seems low probability, but it is still possible. Economic Fragility, Affordability, and Recession Risk This will be a separate report in its own right, but nothing that we haven’t been writing about. Supply chain, and economic fragility is real, expect to see cracks soon. Affordability is an issue across the globe, not just domestically. Affordability has only gotten worse. The “working poor” concept is getting some discussion as it would be the start of a very different type of recession. Job loss recessions, we have a playbook for. People with “good” jobs who cannot afford a reasonable lifestyle is new. Not good. Is recession for Asia (ex-China) and Europe my base case? Not quite, but possibly only because I haven’t had the time to think about it. I don’t see a recession for the U.S. (or China), but it is certainly something we should be admitting is a possibility as not only does the conflict continue, but also the willingness to target energy, refiners, smelters, etc., is increasing and will take a toll even if we come to a resolution in the coming weeks. A world where the resolution is ideal or suboptimal won’t even make a difference as the damage is done and permeates throughout the global economy. Bottom Line Expect bond yields to start acting “normally” in a risk-off environment. Friday morning may have been peak unwind/capitulation and peak inflation fear. Friday afternoon might have been the market deciding to at least think about recession and economic slowdown risks. Very cautious on risk here. Could we miss a big relief rally? Possibly, but I think this time (unlike last Monday/Tuesday) the relief rally will require credible evidence that a resolution is coming. Because of that, we will have time to adjust our positioning. Until then, be cautious on risk, add some duration. Credit did feel weak on Friday, which would be a new thing to worry about (credit, not just private credit). Spreads were leaking. So far the equity sell-off hasn’t required much help from credit, but if credit were to turn more negative, we have some serious downside risk for equities. From our Is Credit Whispering or Screaming? and Credit – A Little Louder Now – we’ve identified how we see a path to credit widening. It hasn’t been a primary concern, but we need to revisit that “complacency” as the risks of an economic downturn are increasing. I think I ended sounding gloomier than I feel, but this is a very tricky environment, and military and politics will drive the next 5% on stocks. Hopefully that 5% will be to the upside as ships start sailing through the Strait sooner than the market is expecting! (There, I did finish with some optimism, even if it isn’t how I’m positioned). Tyler Durden Sun, 03/29/2026 - 14:00

"I'm Sorry, But The Fed Has Run Out Of Road"  Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance There is a special kind of denial that only financial markets can sustain. It is the quiet insistence that everything is fine because the S&P is only down about 10%, as if that number alone captures the health of an entire financial system. It is the belief that until equities are in full free fall, nothing truly serious can be happening underneath. But as we know, underneath, things are already starting to break. That is the part people are not fully appreciating. If a modest correction is enough to expose fragility in private credit that is already spilling over to counterparties and sectors like real estate, what exactly happens when there is a real downturn, the kind that actually forces price discovery instead of delaying it? It does not stop at private credit. Private credit flows into private equity, which depends on leverage to generate returns. Private equity flows into commercial real estate, which is already dealing with structural problems that have nothing to do with interest rates and everything to do with demand. Commercial real estate flows into regional banks, which hold the debt and rely on valuations that have not fully adjusted. It is a chain reaction waiting for a trigger. We knew this heading into 2026. At the same time, inflation has refused to cooperate with the Federal Reserve’s plan. U.S. CPI is holding at 2.4% year over year as of February 2026, and core inflation is at 2.5%. That is not an emergency level, but it is also not the 2% target the Fed has spent years insisting is non negotiable. Central banking is not about being approximately correct. It is about maintaining credibility, and credibility does not come from saying close enough. So the Fed is staring at a system where financial stress is building and inflation is still above target, as I’ve been writing they would face for years now. That combination removes the easy answers, and all of a sudden the Fed runs out of road. The next phase of this cycle is almost certainly deleveraging. Not the slow and orderly kind that policymakers like to describe in speeches, but the forced kind. The kind where lenders pull back, refinancing becomes difficult, and assets that were priced for perfection suddenly have to reflect reality. When that process begins in earnest, it tends to accelerate because falling prices create more pressure, which creates more selling, which creates more falling prices. Then, like we are seeing in private credit, psychology eventually breaks and the blame game starts. Who could have seen this coming? 🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever Once that process starts, there are only two broad paths. The first path is to let it happen. Credit contracts, defaults rise, asset prices fall, and the system works through its excesses the old fashioned way. The problem is that the amount of leverage in the system today is enormous, and it has been built during a period of unusually low rates. When you combine high debt levels with higher interest costs, the math becomes unforgiving very quickly. That kind of deleveraging does not look like a mild recession. It starts to resemble something much more severe, potentially deflationary, potentially prolonged. The second path is intervention. The Fed steps in (stop me if you’ve heard this one before), provides liquidity, and expands its balance sheet aggressively. Quantitative easing returns, possibly at a scale that makes previous rounds look restrained. Asset prices stabilize, credit markets function again, and the immediate crisis is contained. This is what my friend Larry Lepard refers to as “the big print”. But here is where the situation becomes genuinely problematic. The Fed cannot cleanly choose the second option, though I think it’s the way they will head. They cannot do it with inflation still running above target without major inflationary consequences. Injecting massive liquidity into a system that has not fully extinguished inflationary pressure risks reigniting it. Not gently, not in a controlled way, but in a way that forces a much harsher response later. The entire credibility of the central bank rests on the idea that it will not tolerate persistent inflation above its target. If it abandons that stance in order to stabilize markets, it risks unanchoring expectations in a way that is very difficult to reverse. Watch the below clip at 50:02 until 52:47 if you want a 2 minute explanation of the direction we will keep heading if we go the inflation route. It’s a trap, in essence. For years, critics have warned about some version of this outcome. They have argued that excessive debt and repeated interventions would eventually leave policymakers with no good options. Those arguments have been easy to dismiss because, historically, the Fed has always managed to navigate crises. Somehow inflation stayed low. The Fed cut rates, it expanded the balance sheet, it restored stability, and the system moved forward. But the current setup is different in a way that matters. We have never had this level of systemic leverage at the same time as a large, opaque private credit market that sits outside traditional banking channels. We have never had an environment where so much of the financial system depends on continued access to cheap or at least predictable financing. And we have never faced the prospect of needing extremely large scale intervention while inflation is still running above target. Each of those factors on its own would be manageable. Together, they create a situation that does not have a clean historical precedent, so what happens next is unlikely to be neat and orderly, though fucked if I know exactly how the chaos or reset it going to play out. The Fed is not in control of a stable system that just needs minor adjustments. It is managing a complex, highly leveraged structure where each decision carries significant tradeoffs. What seems increasingly unlikely is a smooth resolution where the Fed threads the needle perfectly and everything stabilizes without meaningful damage. There is no painless option left. There’s no more road. The more realistic expectation is a policy response that looks inconsistent, reactive, and at times contradictory, because it will be attempting to balance objectives that are no longer fully compatible. And when that happens, it will not feel like a controlled process. It will feel like the system is being managed in real time, with no clear roadmap, and no guarantee that the chosen path leads anywhere good. Now read: A Veteran Investor Sees The System Breaking My Bear Market Stock Shopping List Private Credit Cracks Reach Real Estate The Private Credit Snowball Accelerates Ron Paul: Just Get Out! Now! The Mistaken Identity of Prediction Markets Bigger Isn’t Better: A Case for Downsizing the Federal Reserve I've Reached Peak Lobotomized Consumer QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important. EPIC Beef at ZeroHedge Store from @beckranchwy and @ElkinsCattleCo pic.twitter.com/f2SuYasm4u — ZeroHedge Store (@ZeroHedgeStore) September 6, 2025 *  *  * 2-DAY SHIPPING NOW JUST $25! Tyler Durden Sun, 03/29/2026 - 11:40