US National Activity Index Rebounds In May, But “V-Shaped” Recovery Still Absent

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    US National Activity Index Rebounds In May, But “V-Shaped” Recovery Still Absent Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2020 – 08:49 Following its biggest collapse on record (by a long, long way), the National Activity Index (produced by the Chicago Fed – CFNAI) was expected to rebound in May but remain deeply underwater. The headline index rose to +2.61 (from a revised lower -17.89 in April), smashing the expectation of -10.00. +2.61 is a record the index going back to 1970… Source: Bloomberg This was led by improvements in production and employment-related indicators (57 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions, while 28 indicators affected the index negatively). The more-watched three-month average is still negative (-6.65) indicating growth is dramatically below trend. However, the diffusion index remains disappointing, signaling overall momentum remains negative on a longer-term basis… Source: Bloomberg We suspect optimism for the “V-shaped” rebound is overdone.  

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